U.S. Sees ‘New Dynamics’ for Mideast Peace

President Bush and Arab and Israeli leaders he met with separately here Thursday evening have concluded that “new dynamics” in the Middle East offer fresh opportunities to bring about direct Palestinian-Israeli negotiations and ultimately peace to that war-torn region, Secretary of State James A. Baker III said.

Baker, although cautioning that the groundwork for further negotiations must be carefully laid, said Bush feels that chances for progress have improved because of recent events, including the U.S. decision to establish a dialogue with the Palestine Liberation Organization and a State Department human rights report criticizing Israel’s handling of the Palestinian uprising in the occupied territories.

Confers With Leaders

Israeli President Chaim Herzog, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and King Hussein of Jordan all agreed that chances for peace initiatives have improved, according to Baker. Bush met with all three leaders and the heads of government of five other countries in a series of bilateral discussions here on the eve of the state funeral for Emperor Hirohito.

Meanwhile, Soviet Foreign Minister Eduard A. Shevardnadze outlined the Kremlin’s ideas for a Middle East peace settlement in a major speech in Cairo, calling on Arabs and Israelis to seize the “chance for a historic compromise now within their reach.” He also called on the Bush Administration to set aside superpower rivalry in favor of “constructive cooperation” to help end the Arab-Israeli conflict.

The sessions here in Tokyo, which the Asahi Evening News referred to as “funeral diplomacy,” were held in the high-ceilinged reception hall of the old American Embassy building where Emperor Hirohito first met Gen. Douglas MacArthur nearly 44 years ago, just after World War II.

Other leaders conferring with Bush included President Francois Mitterrand of France, Prime Minister Noboru Takeshita of Japan, President Mario Soares of Portugal, Prime Minister Chatchai Choonhawan of Thailand and President Ramaswami Venkataraman of India.

Bush went into the first of the meetings soon after arriving in Tokyo at midday Thursday. He kept up the pace into the evening, but his energy seemed to flag as he turned his first day overseas as President into a marathon that did not end until 27 hours after he awoke at the White House on Wednesday morning. All of the sessions were private, with the exception of brief photo periods, and the President kept well out of public view.

‘A Genuine Sharing’

Baker, talking with reporters after the final meetings, said Herzog, Mubarak and Hussein all recognize that “there is a certain dynamic now in the region” and that “there’s a genuine sharing of views that it is, in fact, direct negotiations that will ultimately lead to peace and that somehow we must find a way to get to those direct negotiations.”

Baker was asked whether the direct negotiations would be between the Palestinians and Israelis and not the PLO. He replied: “Palestinians.” The Israelis have refused to consider negotiations with the PLO, which they accuse of being a terrorist group.

Asked again, “Which Palestinians are you talking about?” Baker replied, “The Palestinian people.”

Previous Middle East peace efforts have broken down over the thorny topic of Palestinian representation in any negotiations. An overwhelming majority of Palestinians maintain that the PLO is their representative. In the recent past, invited groups of Palestinian dignitaries failed to meet with former Secretary of State George P. Shultz because they said that Shultz should be talking to the PLO.

Cautionary Note

Against the overall tone of optimism Baker introduced into Bush’s first presidential foray into Middle East diplomacy, the secretary of state added a cautionary note. “We are concerned,” he said, “that if we act too precipitously, we might preempt promising possibilities that could surface if we adopted a more reasoned and measured approach.”

Soon after Baker’s briefing, other Administration officials cautioned reporters against reading too much into the specifics, if not the tone, of his remarks. The officials, who spoke on condition that they not be identified, said the secretary of state’s upbeat assessment reflected what one called an agreement “that there are enough dynamic changes going on that there is an opportunity for movement.” But the officials said Bush brought with him no specific proposals.

A senior Administration official said that Baker’s view of the meetings reflected his assessment that “some new ideas and . . . progress” would result from the current climate in the Middle East but that this did not necessarily lead to the conclusion that a peace agreement would follow.

He said that Bush was “mostly asking questions” and that the answers would be considered during the State Department’s current assessment of the region and U.S. policies there.

Noting that Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir is scheduled to visit Washington in the early spring, the official said that Bush would “like to have a good feel for what might be done before talking to Shamir” but that he would also wait to advance any initiatives until after he has conferred with the Israeli leader. Herzog’s post as president is largely ceremonial; the prime minister occupies the most powerful office in the Israeli government.

Seeking Views of Others

White House Press Secretary Marlin Fitzwater said that Bush felt out the views of the others, seeking their assessment of the PLO. It was, he said, “all part of an analysis aimed at taking further steps down the road. . . .”

Baker, at his meeting with reporters, gave the Middle East trip of Shevardnadze little credit for “creating the new dynamics.” But he said the Soviet interest in the region is healthy.

“I suppose we would want to know that there were concrete contributions that they had in mind, rather than simply rhetorical exercises,” said Baker, who kept a thick white briefing book at his side throughout the meetings.

Baker said the Soviets “can have influence with Syria” and that they could contribute to peace by establishing full diplomatic relations with Israel.

“Another thing that might contribute as far as action by the Soviet Union is concerned is if the Soviet Union were to cease its support of radical countries in the Middle East region such as Libya,” Baker said.

Bush to Visit France

Earlier, at a luncheon session with French President Mitterrand, Bush accepted an invitation to participate in France’s bicentennial celebration July 14. He will be in Paris at that time for the annual economic summit meeting of the United States and six other major industrialized nations.

Mitterrand accepted an invitation to meet with Bush in the United States in the spring, when the French president plans to visit Boston. The exact date and location of the meeting will be set later, but it probably will be in Washington or Boston, according to Fitzwater.

Fitzwater said the two leaders talked extensively about their impressions of Soviet leader Mikhail S. Gorbachev and agreed that progress under perestroika --Gorbachev’s program of political and economic reforms--offers new opportunities and challenges to the West, but that the Western Alliance is strong and ready to deal with Soviet changes in “a very positive fashion.”

Bush told Mitterrand he holds out hope that the peace initiative worked out by the presidents of five Central American countries will bring democratic change to Nicaragua. He indicated that in the coming 60 to 90 days he will work vigorously with countries in the region to bring diplomatic pressure on the Sandinista government so that Nicaragua will live up to commitments it made in accepting the plan.

But Fitzwater said that Bush, who has said there are both positive and troubling elements in the plan, reiterated U.S. skepticism about Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega’s living up to commitments he has made.

The peace plan, which caught the Bush Administration by surprise, calls for disbanding the Contra military force in exchange for pledges of free elections and democratic reform by the Nicaraguan government.