Economy Unsettling GOP’s Strategy in Wyoming Race

Wyoming is one of the most overwhelmingly Republican states in the union, yet local Republicans felt pressured to prevail upon Senate Minority Leader Bob Dole to make the long trip here Thursday to help Craig Thomas against Democrat John Vinich in a special congressional race.

That move speaks volumes about the peril facing the GOP--and the opportunity offered Democrats--in this state and throughout this economically hard-hit region.

Indeed, even as Dole was flying here from Washington, the Commerce Department released figures showing that the Rocky Mountain region had slipped into last place in per capita income for the first time since the government started keeping such figures 60 years ago. The regional average was $14,282, 13% below the national average of $16,444.

“The economy here is lousy,” said Dr. Louis Stadnik, a retired ophthalmologist and longtime Republican who came to the airport to hear Dole. “If this guy (Thomas) goes down, the Democrats can win anywhere.”

Worried About Losing Face

Right now both sides agree that the race is too close to call. But in Washington, Republican leaders are badly worried about losing face in this contest for Wyoming’s only House seat, which will be decided Wednesday.

Republican Dick Cheney won that seat with 68% of the vote last November, but he vacated it to become defense secretary. A GOP defeat here, coming on the heels of setbacks in two other special elections in the last month in districts George Bush swept easily last November, could well damage Republican efforts to recruit candidates to challenge the Democratic control of Congress in 1990.

But there’s more at stake than prestige. For both parties the Wyoming campaign is a crucible for testing their strategies in the struggle for the Mountain West.

Republicans have dominated this region, stretching from Canada to Mexico, from the Sierra Nevadas to the edge of the Great Plains, in presidential and congressional elections for a decade. In Wyoming they have controlled both Senate seats and the House seat since 1978.

Now, however, political pros and scholars think the Democrats have a chance to turn the tide, largely as a result of what Dole called the “double whammy” that has afflicted the region: the simultaneous slump in the key industries of agriculture and mining.

“This region is more up for grabs than at any time since the 1970s,” said Prof. David Magleby of Brigham Young University, a specialist on party strength in the region.

“I know that Wyoming has been hit on the chin more than once,” Dole told a rally here Thursday. “But things are getting better. More jobs are being created. And that’s the name of the game.”

Democrat Vinich, who came within a whisker of defeating Republican Sen. Malcolm Wallop last November, has his own ideas about that. He attributes Wyoming’s problems in large part to alleged Republican failure to deal with unfair foreign trade practices.

“Washington is letting countries like Japan, Korea and West Germany get away with too much,” one Vinich commercial charges. “Between cheap foreign labor and unfair trade barriers they’re hurting America, and I’m tired of seeing Wyoming people and Wyoming’s economy pay the price.”

Thomas, like Vinich a state legislator, contends that Wyoming must look to the private sector, particularly small business, for more jobs.

This week Thomas issued a 13-point plan for creating jobs, pledging among other things to support a proposed Wyoming-to-California natural gas pipeline and to fight environmental proposals that might hinder the marketability of Wyoming coal. “My first and last priority will be fighting for Wyoming people and jobs,” he declared.”

Both candidates have had trouble getting their messages across. First, Thomas was forced to refute reports, based on an interview with Edward J. Rollins, co-chairman of the national House Republican Campaign Committee, that Rollins had taken personal charge of Thomas’ campaign.

Then, Vinich got himself into trouble by charging that a bill Thomas supported in the Legislature would allow early release of some convicts by shifting prisoners from state prisons to county jails. That assertion was disputed by former Gov. Ed Herschler, who happens to be a Democrat.

Some voters have been turned off by the campaign. “There’s been too much mudslinging all around,” said Carol Christensen, a Glen Rock housewife as she browsed through a shopping mall near Casper, the state’s largest city.

John Loos, a retired oil worker from Casper, said he had intended to vote for Vinich in hopes of boosting the economy. “But I’ve read so many bad things about him that I don’t know what to do.”

Whatever the confusion about the candidates there’s little doubt about the state’s economic difficulties. Wyoming’s labor force peaked in 1982 at 241,000 when demand for energy was still relatively strong. By last February that figure had dropped to just under 208,000.

Though the economic decline began during Ronald Reagan’s first term, it did not appear to affect Reagan’s appeal.