Skills May Fall Short of State’s Labor Needs, Study Says

California faces a potential mismatch between the skills of its growing immigrant and minority labor force and the state’s changing job needs, which could lead to higher unemployment and slower economic growth, a demographic report released Tuesday suggested.

Accordingly, immigrants and minorities--who will comprise about half of the state’s workers and more than 80% of its work force growth by the year 2000--must acquire increased training and education, contended the report by the Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy in Palo Alto.

“Unless the occupational profile of California’s minority groups begins to change dramatically, the state’s future labor force may not possess the needed skills and training to staff the jobs produced by an increasingly technological economy,” said the report, titled “California Population Characteristics.”

California’s Latino, Asian and black populations have “below average” representation in many higher-skilled occupations required for the state’s technology- and information-based economy, the report said. It cautioned, however, that it is not predicting that a mismatch will come about but merely stating that it is a possibility.

This potential problem of job mismatches affecting minorities and the 250,000 new immigrants coming to California each year is being recognized by a growing number of state and local government policy-makers, business leaders and planning groups.

More White-Collar Jobs

The Southern California Assn. of Governments, for example, is working with various groups on a plan to improve education and training and attract jobs to the heavily Latino areas of eastern Los Angeles and western San Bernardino counties, said Stephen Weiner, senior economist for the agency. The group is also studying programs for retraining people displaced from other jobs.

These and other programs should be geared toward training workers for medium-skilled, white-collar jobs, said Stephen Levy, director and senior economist at the Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy. That is because those jobs are growing while medium-skilled, blue-collar factory jobs--the traditional route for many minorities to reach middle-class status--are declining, he said.

Such “middle-level” occupations expected to grow the most in total jobs between now and the year 2000 include salespeople, waiters, cashiers, truck drivers, nursing aides, secretaries, information clerks, practical nurses and repair personnel, the report said.

“The growth in middle-level occupations is no longer in the factory, it is in the office,” the report said. To move up into jobs with higher status and income, workers must first get into these middle-level jobs--which generally are people-related, involving work in offices, stores, and health and educational facilities, the report said.

The newest immigrants are not necessarily expected to fill these middle-level jobs, economist Levy said. Instead, older immigrants who came here in the 1970s, early 1980s or before are more likely to move into those jobs, he said. That will make room in lower-level jobs for new immigrants, he said.

Less Skilled Group

Levy said the state’s economy so far has adjusted well to accommodating immigrants. “We’ve been absorbing very large numbers of immigrants, and our unemployment is below the national level,” Levy said.

“But doing it once is not the same as doing it twice,” he added, noting that the newest immigrants tend to be less skilled and educated than their predecessors.

In Los Angeles, the business community has already stepped in to provide some job training and retraining, said Jane Pisano, president of the 2000 Partnership, a citizens organization formed to implement recommendations of a comprehensive report called “LA 2000.” That report outlined challenges and problems facing the Los Angeles area.

THE MISMATCH OF WORKERS AND JOBS Figures reflect what percentage of an ethnic group falls in each occupational category. For instance, 9.3% of all Latinos are in managerial and professional jobs.

1986-88 COMPOSITION Asian and Total Occupation Latino White Black other population Managerial/ professional 9.3 33.6 19.3 25.6 26.9 Sales, administration, technical support 22.2 38.4 36.9 36.6 31.4 Service workers 17.2 10.8 17.0 12.3 12.6 Farm workers 8.6 1.8 0.9 2.7 3.3 Precision, craft workers 15.0 11.8 10.3 10.5 12.3 Operators, laborers 27.8 8.6 15.8 14.3 13.5

Source: Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy

PROJECTION % resulting Potential % needed if trends mismatch, in Occupation in year 2000 continue % points Managerial/ professional 28.9 24.9 -4.0 Sales, administration, technical support 31.4 30.4 -1.0 Service workers 14.1 13.1 -1.0 Farm workers 3.3 3.3 None Precision, craft workers 10.3 12.8 +2.5 Operators, laborers 12.0 15.5 +3.5

Source: Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy