No Recession Until 1990, Economists Say

Top business economists today predicted that economic growth will slow dramatically this year but that the nation should be able to forestall a recession until at least 1990.

The consensus of 54 forecasting experts surveyed by the National Assn. of Business Economists was that America will experience a “growth recession,” in which the economy will continue to expand but at a very slow pace.

The slowdown is expected to be accompanied by a moderate increase in unemployment and higher inflation because of an emerging upturn in food and energy prices, according to the association’s latest quarterly survey.

1990 continues to be the year economists predict a recession will arrive. Forty-three percent predict a downturn then, and 20% expect record peacetime expansion to end this year.

More Optimistic

That projection is slightly more optimistic than the group’s last quarterly forecast, issued in February, when 75% of those surveyed expected a recession this year or next.

In today’s survey, 17% forecast a recession for 1991 and 20% said it would be 1992 or later before a downturn occurs.

Recent government reports measuring the economy’s performance this year have suggested that growth is slowing in response to a Federal Reserve campaign to engineer a so-called “soft landing,” in which the economy slows enough to cool inflation without slipping into a recession.