NEWS ANALYSIS : GOP Seen as Having Most to Lose in Abortion ‘War’

The coming legislative war over abortion poses deep risks for both political parties but could be particularly costly to Republicans, according to politicians and political analysts.

For Democrats, who generally have staked out an abortion rights stance, an increased focus on abortion could accelerate the flight of ethnic Catholics and conservative rural voters to the Republicans. That could further weaken the party in strongly anti-abortion states such as Pennsylvania, Missouri and many in the South.

However, the GOP, which has benefited from the abortion issue in the past, now may have more to lose.

Republicans “were always better off promising the sizzle and not delivering the steak” on the abortion issue, said Republican analyst Kevin Phillips. By promising to change the law on abortion, the GOP attracted anti-abortion voters.

But delivering on that promise could drive a wedge into the coalition forged in 1980 by Ronald Reagan, according to Phillips and William Schneider, a political analyst for The Times. The abortion issue could divide upscale, well-educated suburban voters who generally favor abortion rights from less well-off, less-educated, religiously motivated anti-abortion voters, they said.

At the extreme, these analysts suggested, a national fight over abortion could split Republicans in much the same way that struggles over civil rights split the Democratic Party.

The outlines of the debate may soon begin to become apparent.

On Wednesday, the first working day after the Supreme Court gave states new power to restrict abortions, Florida Gov. Bob Martinez called a special session of the Legislature. He wants to convene the session by the end of September and is meeting with legislative leaders to choose a date.

First of Many Struggles

And Florida’s battle, pitting a determinedly anti-abortion Republican governor against Democratic state legislative leaders who favor abortion rights, almost certainly will be only the first of many such confrontations.

For both parties, the difficulty is that abortion cuts across traditional coalitions but leaves very little room for compromise.

To date, both parties have staked out strong positions on the issue on the national level--the Democrats pro- and the Republicans anti-abortion--even though both parties have large groups of dissenters. For the dissenters, the issue has long been uncomfortable; but so long as the courts kept control of the issue, that discomfort was manageable.

Unendurable Discomfort

Now, the chief political questions are likely to be how quickly that discomfort becomes unendurable and which side’s dissenters fall away first.

The worry for Republicans is that most of the Democrats likely to switch allegiances because of abortion may already have done so but the bulk of GOP desertions may be yet to come.

Many Republicans accepted the party position on abortion even though they didn’t agree with it “for the simple reason that they felt the Supreme Court would never let” that position be implemented, said GOP strategist Peter Teeley, a leading campaign adviser to President Bush during the 1988 election. “So they could focus on other issues. I’m not sure that applies any more.”

That could pose problems for GOP moderates such as Illinois Gov. James R. Thompson, who repeatedly has vetoed anti-abortion legislation. Thompson argued that the bills clashed with the Supreme Court’s 1973 Roe vs. Wade decision, which made abortion legal, but he has refused to take a public stand on abortion itself.

Now, as the governor weighs whether to seek an unprecedented fifth term, the Supreme Court has taken that political cover away from him. Wednesday, with riot police standing by, both sides rallied hundreds of demonstrators outside the state office complex in Chicago, calling on Thompson to take a stand.

Hopes for Compromise

The only stand he has taken so far is a statement Monday cautioning lawmakers not to move hastily and saying that he hopes for a compromise that would “balance liberties.”

But “balance” may be a hard position to sell to voters. “There’s very little middle ground” on the abortion issue, GOP strategist John Buckley said.

Similar difficulties could befall abortion rights Republicans in California, Democratic strategists hope. Sen. Pete Wilson, a candidate for governor, has succeeded so far in bridging the gap over abortion by persuading anti-abortion conservatives to support him on other issues. The more important abortion becomes as a voting issue, however, the more difficult that maneuver will become, said Democratic consultant Kam Kuwata.

Anti-abortionists in California are in the odd situation of providing great sums of money to finance activist crusades across the nation while they lack a strong, identifiable political leader of their own.

Once Republican Gov. George Deukmejian retires, anti-abortion activists looking for champions will be left with a grab bag of legislators who are unlikely allies--such as Senate President Pro Tem David A. Roberti of Los Angeles, a liberal Democrat, and Sen. John Doolittle of Rocklin, a conservative Republican. In this case, Roberti is likely to be kept on a tight leash by other Democrats who strongly disagree with his Catholic religious view of abortion.

Anti-Abortion Democrats

As for anti-abortion Democrats across the country, the party’s national position “is something we always have to make apologies for,” said Rep. Gerard A. Kosinski, an anti-abortion legislator in Pennsylvania, one of the most strongly anti-abortion states.

Democratic legislators such as Kosinski have had many years to practice those apologies, but anti-abortion leaders now hope to raise the pressure. “If the Democrats are going to succeed, they are going to have to make room for the pro-lifers,” said Brian Young of the American Life League.

In New York, Democratic Gov. Mario M. Cuomo, saying the U.S. Supreme Court follows a “lower standard,” Wednesday promised his continued support for Medicaid funding in New York to pay for poor women’s abortions. Cuomo, a Roman Catholic, said that nothing in the court’s Monday decision “changes my opinion about the right to abortion or the right of poor people to receive funding.”

The unknown variable in the abortion dispute is how rapidly each side will organize. So far, all agree, the anti-abortion side is far ahead. But the court’s decision has provided the other side something to rally around, and abortion rights forces “are rabid, they are not going to be taken to the cleaners again,” said Iowa Democratic leader Bonnie Campbell.

The fight over abortion will hit American politics at a critical point. Both Democrats and Republicans have been planning to pour thousands of hours and millions of dollars into state-level elections this year and in 1990 as each party seeks to control the state legislatures, which will draw legislative and congressional district lines after the 1990 census.

With the high court’s decision, many of those state elections are likely to turn into referendums on abortion. With the combination of an intensely partisan election and a heated debate over the premier emotional issue of the day, Campbell said, “it’s going to be a long, hot election cycle.”

Staff writers John Balzar in Los Angeles and Bob Secter in Chicago contributed to this story.