Second Half Will Tell If Orioles Are Rebuilding or Built for Long Haul

Sparky Anderson, the manager of the Detroit Tigers, has had the Baltimore Orioles pegged for the past few years.

He predicted their demise in 1987.

He said he wasn’t surprised by their 54-107 record in 1988, saying, “Teams usually play as well as their record shows.”

He said last summer that the Orioles had to rebuild immediately, which they did. Then, he applauded the unloading of veterans and going with kids.

Now, Anderson is sure again.

“They’ll be in it in September,” said Anderson, a manager who understands pennant races. “I know it. I like that team. They play hard. They’ve done everything right.”

The Orioles did indeed do everything right the first half of this season, a magical 85 games that have them leading the American League East Division by 5 1/2 games and leading many baseball men, not just Anderson, to believe that the Orioles might be in the race until the end.

Of course, there are those who believe it’s a crawl, not a race, given the Orioles are the only East team with a winning record, but that is irrelevant. The idea is to win, whether it’s with 81, 91 or 101 victories.

“How can you not believe they’ll be in it?” said Milwaukee Manager Tom Trebelhorn. “They’re a good club.”

There are 77 games to go, but the Orioles’ fate in the second half might rest in their next 21 games. Thursday night at Memorial Stadium, they begin a four-game series against the pitching-rich California Angels, who not only have the best record in the major leagues, but also have won eight of their last 10 overall, and have a winning record this year (5-3) against the Orioles.

Following the Angels, the Seattle Mariners come to town for three games. They have won 10 of their last 13, and have a winning record (5-4) against the Orioles.

Following the seven-game home stand, the Orioles play 14 games in 14 days in four cities and three time zones: Oakland, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Boston. It might be a killer trip.

“There are no easy teams for us; no teams are taking us lightly. There are no easy series from here,” said first baseman Randy Milligan. “Everyone in the West is tough. It’s a long season. We’ve surprised some people, but now they’ve seen everything we’ve got.”

To some, what the Orioles have is impressive.

“They are maybe the only team in this league that plays team ball,” said Toronto catcher Bob Brenly, a career National Leaguer until this season. “They do all the little things to win: bunting, hitting-and-running, stealing, moving runners along. Almost every other team in this league just plays a glorified home run derby. That’s one reason the Orioles will stay in it.”

There’s a very good chance that the Orioles will attempt to make a trade for the second half. Almost every team involved in a pennant race tries to add a player, usually a veteran, for the stretch run. The Orioles have provided such veterans for other teams -- Mike Flanagan, Mike Boddicker, Jim Dwyer and others -- over the last couple of years.

Now the Orioles might want help.

It has been mentioned more than once in the last few weeks that the Tigers and Chicago White Sox might unload a veteran for the stretch in hope of acquiring a young player. The name of White Sox outfielder-designated hitter Harold Baines has come up more than once in the last month, but apparently the White Sox are not ready to deal.

The idea of acquiring Baines seems to intrigue Manager Frank Robinson, but one of his players said, “I think we need another pitcher.”

Asked about the availability of Detroit’s Doyle Alexander, a free agent after this season, Robinson said, “He might not be around.”

Robinson said he and General Manager Roland Hemond met two weeks ago to discuss trades, and said they would meet again at the end of the month.

Hemond said, “You know me, I’m never afraid to make a trade. But we’ll have to see if it can help us.”

Robinson said, “We won’t trade just to make a trade. If we get someone, it’s because we really want him.”

Robinson has said many times, “If it’s not broke, don’t fix it.” He has said that he’s reluctant to mess with the chemistry of this team.

“There’s a long way to go and a lot of baseball to be played, but I really don’t believe we’re the type of team likely to run into a serious slump,” Robinson said. “We have too much good going for us right now.”

Can the good things keep happening?

History says no. No team in major-league history has gone from last one year to first the next.

History says maybe. No American League East team since the 1978 Boston Red Sox has led by at least 3 1/2 games on July 4 -- the Orioles’ lead was 6 1/2 -- and not won the division. Plus, of the 80 teams who have won division titles starting with 1969, 51 teams (64 percent) were leading at the All-Star break.

Statistics say no. There was no way anyone could have predicted that catcher Mickey Tettleton -- who hadn’t hit more than 11 homers on any level before this year -- could have 20 homers at the All-Star break. Or that Jeff Ballard, a lifetime 10-20 pitcher in the majors before this season, would be 10-4. Or that reliever Gregg Olson, less than a year removed from college, would be 3-0 with a 1.89 ERA and 14 saves in 14 tries. Or that Jay Tibbs, a career 31-47 pitcher in the majors before this year, would be 5-0. Or that Kevin Hickey, who had not played in the big leagues since 1983, would own Wade Boggs, Don Mattingly, George Brett and others.

Those guys might have to continue their career years if the Orioles are to win. The team also must straighten out its starting rotation, which has been shaky. Rookie Bob Milacki must rediscover his changeup. The Orioles also must get a lot more out of Larry Sheets and Brady Anderson in the second half.

Statistics can lie. How can you figure that the Orioles have been outhit, .271-.261, in the first half, yet have outscored opponents, 398-342? “Sometimes it’s easy to figure out why a team is losing,” said Milligan. “It’s tougher to figure out why they’re winning.”

The Orioles are winning because they lead the league in extra-base hits (tied for third in homers), walks, fewest walks allowed, most sacrifices (37; the last four years, they have averaged 34 for the season) and fewest errors. They might be the only American League East team that doesn’t beat itself. Despite a lineup that doesn’t look overly menacing, the Orioles have averaged 4.68 runs per game, the second-best ratio in the major leagues to the Minnesota Twins.

“They’re a very heavy-handed coached team,” said Blue Jays pitcher Mike Flanagan. “I’m sure none of them has the green light (on the bases).” They don’t. “I’m sure they all go up there looking to bunt, to take. They’re running out everything. They don’t swing at bad pitches, they throw strikes. They do everything they can to score first, try to stay ahead until the sixth or seventh, then hang on. But they’ve hung on so far. I think they can keep it up.”

Inexperience says they’re not ready. Shortstop Cal Ripken is the only player remaining from the 1983 World Series winners, and only four of the players on the 24-man roster have played in a postseason game. The Orioles were the youngest team in the major leagues at the start of the season. One American League player, who asked not to be named, said, “How are those young guys going to react with 40,000 fans screaming in their ears in September? Even veterans get pretty tight when it gets hairy towards the end.”

“What makes you optimistic about this club is that they’re young,” said Ripken. “There’s a good chance that they’re going to get better. In spring training and early in the season, you say, ‘Gosh, they have a lot of talent.’ Enthusiasm is very easy when you’re young. The dive-for-everything, run-through-the-wall mentality, that’s contagious. The only need was experience. We’ve had a good half, but there’s a chance, a good chance, that it’s going to continue because we have players who are going to get better.”

Still, with youth, and with the Orioles’ gruesome history of the last couple of years, some baseball people feel the Orioles will collapse.

“They’ve said that all year,” said Orioles first baseman Jim Traber. “And they’ll be saying that in September.”

Others say the first big losing streak might bury the Orioles. Or that the All-Star break will cause them to lose momentum.

“Lose our momentum? No, I don’t think so,” said Robinson. “That’s not a concern. I don’t place much stock in the usual thoughts about the All-Star break. I mean, if a team loses a few afterward, people they say lost their momentum. If the same team happens to win a few, the same people will say they picked up right where they left off or the time off really refreshed them. In other words, it can mean anything you want.”

So, he isn’t thinking pennant yet?

“I don’t even think about that,” Robinson said. “There are a lot of games to play. The magic number is too high. When we’re seven games ahead with six to play, I’ll be thinking about the pennant. For now, just do the job at hand.”

It’s a job Anderson has had many times -- and a job Anderson would want now.

“It will all come down to how the Orioles’ pitching holds up the last two months,” said Anderson. “If it does, they’ll win. If it doesn’t, Boston, New York or Toronto will beat them. But I like being ahead of everyone. I like people chasing me.”

Thursday night, the chase resumed.