The Worst Is Yet to Come for Poland

Solidarity’s electoral victory and President Bush’s visit give the impression that Poland will soon become a country with a democratic political system and a market economy. Yet the conditions that currently confront Poland will make for a painful transition.

The source of this misapprehension is the portrayal of recent events in Eastern Europe--by both the Bush Administration and the American press--as “the death of communism.” Communism as an ideology in Poland died in 1968 with the crushing of the Prague Spring in Czechoslovakia and the destruction of a like-minded party reform movement in Poland. However, the communist system of power remains in place.

Conditions in Poland make the process of replacing the moribund system exceptionally difficult. The country faces an acute economic crisis while undergoing social decomposition. Simultaneously the political liberalization that is taking place has created a vacuum of power in the center of the communist system.

Structurally, centralized planning with its emphasis on heavy industrial production has created an economy that is backward by world standards. This makes it difficult for Poland to service its debt of $39 billion. Capital stock is obsolete and worn out. Infrastructure is crumbling after years of neglect. Poland, as well as the whole of Eastern Europe, faces imminent ecological disaster. Already, tap water in Warsaw is not drinkable.

From a political standpoint, even more troubling is the system’s inability to provide for the population’s basic needs. Production of consumer goods and creation of new housing is well below demand. Agriculture is undercapitalized and lacks an adequate labor force. This year inflation was officially put at 100%; in reality, it is almost double. The expectation of higher prices leads consumers to hoard basic goods and this exacerbates shortages.

While the government speaks of its intention to adopt a market economy, it has taken few concrete steps to implement these plans in the state industrial sector. It has, however, permitted private firms to operate. This emerging small-scale capitalism is not particularly productive. Those who have access to supplies of goods or raw materials through foreign or state connections are exploiting shortages in the Polish economy. The new entrepreneurship presently does little to solve the shortage problem by increasing the supply of goods. It is a capitalism of the bazaar where those with privileged access can charge what the goods-starved public will bear.

Poverty and despair that accompanies it are wreaking havoc on a people who were once relatively free of the social pathologies that plague modern societies. Poland is rapidly becoming a country divided between rich and poor. There are now homeless in Warsaw; beggars are a common sight.

One of the more remarkable aspects of Poland--how society preserved its sense of community and its shared values through 50 years of communist rule--seems to be collapsing under the burden of nearly 15 years of economic crisis. To protect themselves and their families, Poles have become more selfish and self-centered. Some have become predatory in their interactions with others. An informed young German describes this as the “outbreak of cannibalism.”

The change is most marked among Polish youth. Many talented and ambitious young Poles see no future in their homeland. Scores have either emigrated or are trying to do so. Others are forgoing university education as a waste of time. Most seem to have become highly apathetic if not outright antipathetic.

Clearly, rapid and effective political action is necessary if the country is to escape from its present morass. Yet Poland is without a government and it is unclear whether the Communists or Solidarity will attempt to form one. Candidates are scarce for the newly created, powerful position of president. Lech Walesa does not want it yet. The obvious candidate, Gen. Wojciech Jaruzelski, has declined to run, although Walesa now says that Solidarity would find him to be an acceptable president.

Important problems of political transition will have to be addressed. Previously, the party and not the government ruled Poland. Party bureaucrats will have to let the parliament and government rule. If not, the recent elections will solve nothing.

In the short term, any solution to these problems will cause economic conditions to get worse before they get better. In this period, reformers both in the party and in the moderate opposition grouped around Solidarity will be in exposed political positions. Party reformers will have to persuade their apparatus to give up power and privilege. Solidarity’s leaders will have to persuade their followers to accept a further decline in living standards.

If they fail, there are more radical political forces that are ready to step into the breach. There are opposition groups that reject cooperation with the party. And there are hard-line elements within the party that would use any excuse to squash reform. Thus the combination of political decompression and economic crisis opens the door to some chilling political and economic alternatives that have little to do with parliamentary rule or a market economy. Poland could collapse economically and a demagogue with a strong hand could arise on either side to restore order.