TWO EARLY? : There’s a Long Way to Go to the Kentucky Derby

Asking trainer D. Wayne Lukas to size up this year’s crop of 2-year-old thoroughbreds in August is a bit like asking Whitey Herzog about the pennant race in March or listening to a campaign manager discuss his candidate’s chances after the Iowa caucuses.

The main difference is that some of next year’s Kentucky Derby hopefuls have not even entered a race yet, which makes speculating on this summer’s top Del Mar talent that much more intriguing.

With the 50th Del Mar meeting more than half over, the threetrainers--Lukas, Brian Mayberry and Neil Drysdale--with maybe the brightest prospects in California were asked recently to play the speculation game.

First, Lukas cautioned that although he is fond of his fillies currently at Del Mar, his best may be yet to race--or are running at Saratoga in New York.

One Lukas filly, Earth Angel, daughter of 1980 champion filly champion Heavenly Cause, has yet to run a race.

“She going to be a super filly, but I don’t think she’ll run much until Oak Tree at Santa Anita,” Lukas said.

And, Lukas said, “We’ve been doing awfully well in the maiden races at Saratoga.”

Of the Lukas fillies that have run at Del Mar, the top three appear to be A Wild Ride, Patches and Rue De Palm. They give Lukas an excellent chance to win his seventh Del Mar Debutante in the past nine years when the $200,000 Grade II stakes for top 2-year-old fillies is run over a mile Sept. 3.

“All three are going to look better when they stretch out (go longer distances),” Lukas said. “They’ve got pedigrees that dictate that. I’ll be very surprised if they don’t improve off the stretch-out.”

Of the three, Lukas is highest on A Wild Ride, owned by Calumet Farm and an impressive winner of the Aug. 2 Junior Miss Stakes at Del Mar.

“She’s got the most seasoning, and she’s probably our best shot,” said Lukas, who has won 31 Del Mar stakes races in the past 10 years. “She looks like the kind of filly who doesn’t want to be rushed early. She just wants to sit and wait and then make one big run.”

A Wild Ride easily overtook Dominant Dancer, winner of the Landaluce Stakes at Hollywood Park, near the finish of the Junior Miss, winning by three-quarters of a length after trailing by 1 3/4 entering the stretch.

“She just sucked her up,” Lukas said.

But Lukas acknowledges that Patches, sired by Majestic Light and owned by William T. Young, might be his most talented filly. In her maiden victory Aug. 13 at Del Mar, she won by a whopping 5 1/2 lengths.

Rue De Palm broke her maiden July 29 at Del Mar by 1 1/2 lengths but was scratched in her next effort, the Sorrento Stakes, after she became ornery and hit her head in the gate--something that still frustrates Lukas.

“The race (won by Cheval Volant) was so bad,” Lukas said. “I really felt we could win it. Not to get the stake is one thing, but not to get the outing in her is another.”

Mayberry, winner of just one Del Mar stakes race until he won with Doyouseewhatisee in the 6-furlong De Anza Aug. 9, said he might have one of his deeper 2-year-old stables this year in Willing Worker, Madcapade and Doyouseewhatisee.

Although he’s excited about his colts’ potential, Mayberry’s voice seemed to rise an octave when Madcapade was mentioned.

Purchased at the Keeneland fall sale for $75,000 by Jan, Mace and Samantha Siegel, Madcapade won his debut on Aug. 12 by three-quarters of a length.

“The jock didn’t even hit him at all,” Mayberry said. “It was a hand ride all the way.”

Mayberry said Madcapade was a bit of a problem to train, but has more talent than Willing Worker or Doyouseewhatisee.

“He is very headstrong,” Mayberry said. “I had to cut (geld) him. I took great pains to get him to run.”

Like most of Mayberry’s horses, Madcapade was purchased for a reasonable price.

“We don’t spend over $100,000,” he said. “That’s just the principle of our operation.”

Mayberry said his business is founded on a philosophy similar to that of Nevada Las Vegas basketball Coach Jerry Tarkanian--recruit the best athletes and let the coaching take care of the molding process.

“We did alter our plan for a couple years--we were buying the better-bred horse--but now we’ve gone back to buying the best athlete,” he said. “Breeding, which is very important, is not the end-all. Obviously, it’d be nice to buy all the best-bred horses, but the market doesn’t permit you to do that. Generally speaking, the more athletic ability they have, the easier they are to train anyway.”

Doyouseewhatisee, bought by the Siegels for $85,000 at the Calder (Fla.) 2-year-old training sale, has won both his starts--the DeAnza by three lengths and his maiden at Hollywood Park by three-quarters of a lengths. Mayberry said the colt will probably be held out until the Sept. 13 Del Mar Futurity, a one-mile, $200,000 Grade I stakes.

Willing Worker, purchased at the Timonium Sale in Maryland for $25,000, won his maiden race at Hollywood Park, then finished third to Magical Mile in the Hollywood Juvenile. His first appearance at Del Mar will come today in the $75,000 Balboa Stakes.

One of Willing Worker’s main competitors in the Balboa, along with Patches and Lukas’ Newport Jazz, will be Drysdale’s Forty Niner Days.

Winner of his debut at Hollywood Park, and later a runner-up to Magical Mile in the Juvenile championship, Forty Niner Days also is expected to compete in the Del Mar Futurity.

“As long as he finishes well in the Balboa, we’ll send him on,” Drysdale said. “He acts like he wants to go over a longer distance; we’ll have to wait and see.”

Leonard Lavin is taking that same attitude with his talented filly, Ten K. In her two starts, Ten K, sired by Private Account, has won impressively both times. Saturday, she overcame a four-length deficit to run six furlongs in 1:10 1/5.

“At the moment, she’s done everything we’ve asked of her,” Lavin said. “She had the worst of it on the rail, but she made room for herself very nicely.”

Lavin said he expects to run Ten K next in the Debutante.

Another horse who might be competitive in the Debutante is Kenny Jumps’ filly, Cheval Volant, who won the $80,325 Sorrento Stakes but was bleeding from both nostrils at the finish. Jumps said Cheval Volant would run the Debutante with the addition of the diuretic Lasix.

Even with some of the early credentials horses will bring to the Debutante and the Futurity, only two who won the Futurity went on to win the Kentucky Derby the following year--Tomy Lee (1958 and ‘59) and Gato del Sol (1981, ‘82).

Lukas said he has yet to see a Tomy Lee or Gato del Sol this meeting.

“Ten K looked very impressive, but so far I haven’t seen a horse that has surfaced as championship caliber,” he said. “I think it’s going to take a couple more to find out. I’ve been more impressed with the horses on the East Coast. The quality’s a bit deeper.

“But the best horses have yet to surface in our barns and some of the other ones. The better horses are going to take a little more time.”

How much more time?

“October, November, that’s when the horses really start to find themselves,” Lukas said. “At this time last year, nobody even knew Easy Goer existed.”