NEWS ANALYSIS : Morning Becomes Dyspeptic : Television: Research has shown that conflict and sudden change are not what bleary-eyed viewers want in morning news shows, but change is in the air.

It used to be that morning television was as comforting a way to start the day as a fresh cup of coffee and a hot, buttered roll. If late-night TV is what you watch between your toes, the network morning shows are like radio with rabbit ears: programs you listen to and watch between the shower and the car door--for friendly banter, useful features and the reassurance that the world has made it through another night.

“We’re the first news of the day for many people,” notes Charles Gibson, “Good Morning America” co-anchor, “and they want to know that Cleveland is still there.”

They also want to know that Charles Gibson is still there, along with Joan Lunden--or, if they’re “Today” show fans, Jane Pauley and Bryant Gumbel.

Since morning TV began nearly 40 years ago with NBC’s “Today” and host Dave Garroway, the collegiality of the on-air “family” has been considered a significant factor in a show’s success. The traditional on-air marriage of David Hartman and Joan Lunden on “Good Morning America” might give way to the “Moonlighting”-style relationship of Gumbel and Pauley as the preferred format, but network research has found that conflict and sudden change are not what bleary-eyed viewers want.

“If I’m going to argue with my wife, I’ll save it until nighttime,” says Jack Reilly, executive producer of “Good Morning America.” “That translates to television--viewers don’t want aggravation when they have their whole day ahead of them.”

Well, fasten your Mr. Coffee machines--it’s going to be a bumpy morning. America’s TV wakeup call--already jangling with the planned departure of Jane Pauley from “Today”--is likely to be in for some changes.

NBC is expected to announce this week that Pauley will leave “Today” after 13 years to work on a prime-time news series. She has been concerned about the possible direction of “Today” and the handling of the promotion of Deborah Norville as news anchor. Weatherman Willard Scott, meanwhile--who was criticized for his cornpone ways by anchor Bryant Gumbel in a now-infamous memo to the executive producer--has made no secret of his desire to leave the show.

And “Today”--which remains No. 1 in the ratings but has been losing ground to ABC’s “Good Morning America”--will be getting a new senior executive producer in January: David Nuell, the executive producer of “Entertainment Tonight.” Nuell has helped to improve the ratings of “ET” with more tabloid-style features. While there is no indication that Nuell would bring “ET” to “Today,” some network observers project that a revamp of “Today” could be in the offing.

Behind all the publicity about the “Today” show, the bottom-line story of morning news is that ABC’s “Good Morning America” has been beating “Today” with a key demographic group for advertisers--women aged 18 to 49.

A successful network show can be a cash-cow for a network and its stations; “Today” brings in more than $65 million a year in revenue. Being outperformed by ABC with a key demographic group, therefore, hurts where it counts.

Even in the overall ratings, “GMA” has been gaining. Although “Today” remains No. 1, in the last year it has declined 7% in its share of the total audience, while “GMA” has gained 3%. The race is now so close that only two-tenths of a ratings point separates “GMA” from “Today,” according to Nielsen ratings for the third quarter of this year.

While they’re not gloating about the negative publicity at “Today,” the producers of “GMA” are glad they don’t have that problem to worry about at the moment. The last time there was early-morning dissent, it was over Joan Lunden’s dissatisfaction with years of playing second-fiddle to David Hartman. Hartman has now left the show, replaced by ABC newsman Charles Gibson, with whom Lunden shares co-anchor duties.

“GMA” has been changing some of its features to accommodate the changing interests of the audience, cutting back on celebrity interviews now seen on many other shows and adding contributors such as Terry Rohe, a 72-year-old reporter who talks to both parents and their grown children about issues concerning older people.

According to NBC executives, NBC Sports President Dick Ebersol was given the additional responsibility of overseeing “Today” for the news division earlier this year because “Today” seemed to be lacking in fresh ideas. Noting that “Today” had overtaken the then-top-rated “GMA” in the mid-1980s with the pairing of Gumbel and Pauley, news-making trips abroad and other fresh approaches, NBC Entertainment President Brandon Tartikoff said in an interview, “The show needed innovation and new leadership. It seemed to be running on previous momentum.”

Sources familiar with the situation said that the appointment of Deborah Norville last August to replace John Palmer as news anchor on “Today” was intended as a bid for younger viewers. The theory was that Norville, a touted new NBC star, would be more attractive to them than the veteran Palmer.

Ebersol is said to have explained the change to Pauley, but there seems to have been some misunderstanding on the full extent of Norville’s role, which has proved to be more of a full partner with Gumbel and Pauley than simply a news-reader, as Palmer had been.

At any rate, the arrangements, which one source describes as “more of a screw-up than a conscious plot,” appear to have backfired on NBC. Pauley, who is very popular with the early-morning audience, according to NBC’s own research, is leaving the show, probably at the end of the year. And Norville, who was recently signed to a $1-million contract by NBC, may bear the burden of being portrayed as “the other woman” in the “Today” domestic drama if, as expected, she is named to succeed Pauley as co-anchor.

Third-ranked CBS, meanwhile, on Monday got a new executive producer for “CBS This Morning” with Kathleen Sullivan and Harry Smith: Erik Sorenson, formerly vice president and station manager at KCBS-TV Channel 2 in Los Angeles.

CBS, a perennial third in the morning-news race, has been lagging far behind “GMA and “Today” with “CBS This Morning.” Sullivan, a former news anchor at ABC, was brought to CBS with great fanfare, but “CBS This Morning” has not ignited the ratings since its premiere two years ago. Sorenson has not said what his plans for the show are.

In a recent remark that was overhead on an open mike, Sullivan called CBS the “Cheap Broadcasting System.” Her lawyer, Ronald Konecky, says that the remark was in jest and the incident was overblown. But sources at CBS say the comment was not a big hit with management. Sullivan has more than a year to go on her contract, which is estimated at $1 million a year.

Although the network morning shows remain dominant in the 7-9 a.m. period, they’ve seen some erosion of their audience to the many new other choices available.

“We’re not just competing with each other now,” notes “GMA”s Reilly. “There’s cable, local morning shows and even a lot of kids’ cartoons that people are watching at those hours. If there isn’t enough audience for one of the three network morning shows, maybe somebody will decide to run a half-hour soap--or a rock concert at 7:30 a.m.”

Despite their differences, all three networks are doing essentially the same kind of show that “Today” began 40 years ago, although their serious news content has grown. That’s probably because the format works well, and sudden change can be disastrous. But if somebody comes up with a new wakeup call that works for today’s audience, whether it’s news, entertainment or some new combination, the rewards could be very big indeed.