NEWS ANALYSIS : Guerrilla Offensive Weakens Salvadoran Chief : Central America: The push also seems to have strengthened right-wing extremists in and out of uniform.

A 10-day urban offensive by leftist guerrillas has seriously weakened U.S.-backed President Alfredo Cristiani and shown that the rebels are still a formidable military force.

But rather than push the new government toward concessions at the bargaining table, as the rebels apparently intended, the offensive seems to have strengthened right-wing extremists in the army and ruling Nationalist Republican Alliance. It may have eliminated any room for Cristiani to maneuver.

The assault by the Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front (FMLN), which appeared all but over Monday, is the first major crisis for Cristiani since he took office June 1 with a moderate image and a call for peace talks to end a decade of war.

In much the same way that his predecessor, President Jose Napoleon Duarte, was weakened by the guerrilla kidnaping of his daughter in 1985, the current crisis has revealed Cristiani’s subservience to hard-liners in and out of uniform.

The rebel offensive met with a brutal military response--strafing, rocketing and bombing that has killed scores of unarmed civilians in the capital; police raids against churches and opposition groups, and a paramilitary assault that left six Jesuit priests murdered.

Cristiani has remained silent through most of these events and worked out of army headquarters rather than his own. He has been upstaged by harsh statements from two civilians in the government--one rejecting Pope John Paul II’s call for a cease-fire, another suggesting that liberal Roman Catholic bishops leave the country for their own safety.

“Cristiani is fighting a war on two fronts, one on the left and one on the right,” a European diplomat said. “What’s been revealed is that Cristiani is no more powerful than Duarte was, despite the fact he was put there by a right-wing party.”

The guerrilla offensive, which left more than 1,000 dead, has turned into defensive skirmishing by small pockets of rebels who held out Monday in Soyapango, Ciudad Delgado and Apopa on the northern edge of the capital. There was speculation, however, that the rebels were regrouping for a second assault.

Police raided several churches housing war refugees Monday. At an Episcopal church, they seized 20 religious and lay workers, including seven foreigners. Six of the foreign missionaries were later released.

U.S. Ambassador William Walker denounced the raids as “very unfortunate,” and the Right Rev. Frederick Borsch, bishop of the Episcopal Diocese of Los Angeles, condemned the seizure as “but one more tragic example of the lengths to which the government will go.”

Walker has spent much of the past week proclaiming the 42-year-old president’s democratic intentions in the face of excesses. He is trying to deflect critics in Congress who want to reduce U.S. aid to El Salvador, which has totaled more than $4 billion over the past decade.

Under repeated questioning Monday about the killing of the Jesuits, the threats against bishops and the church raids, Walker seemed strained.

“Management control problems exist in a situation like this,” Walker said. “And it’s not a management control issue that would lend itself to a Harvard Business School analysis. I mean, this is war. It’s fighting, it’s death. . . . I really think President Cristiani is under barrage from all sides and all sorts of events. I think some things are happening that he would prefer not to happen.”

The guerrillas brought the war to the capital in an effort to end a stalemate. Both sides could have continued fighting in the countryside for years without dislodging El Salvador’s power elite.

Although the offensive allowed the rebels to flex their military muscle, it has yet to alter the balance of power between the two armies. Still, neither side can win; neither can eliminate the other.

At this point, both armies are claiming a military victory. The rebels were well-armed and well-prepared, with good communications and high morale. In their analysis, they have proven that they can hold the U.S.-backed army at bay for a week in the capital, the nation’s economic and political core.

The army, meanwhile, believes the rebels have given everything in an offensive that failed to destroy a military target or provoke a popular insurrection. The rebels fought harder than the army had expected, but the government forces closed ranks, fought back and remained intact.

In fact, neither side can claim an outright military victory. And neither emboldened position is conducive to making political concessions.

“The problem at root is how to translate this new military situation in political terms,” leftist political leader Ruben Zamora said. “If there had been an insurrection, (a rebel victory) would have been automatic. Or if the army had dislodged the FMLN in one day, it would have been over. But neither happened.”

It is still early to determine which army has lost more political support among the populace--the rebels for bringing the war to crowded neighborhoods, or the armed forces for responding with aerial attacks that probably killed civilians and destroyed houses.

Refugees in the Flor Blanca football stadium said they had lost faith in both sides and in most institutions--the church, the Red Cross and even foreign governments.

“Why don’t they send help now like they did after the (1985) earthquake?” asked a 43-year-old man with four children. “If they do, tell them not to send it to the government or we’ll never see a dime.”

The refugees were irate with the news broadcasts, which were put under government control by a state of siege. Some people were caught in crossfires when they returned home after officials announced the coast was clear.

Turning away from state-controlled media, people have begun listening to the rebels’ clandestine Radio Venceremos for their news.

But the guerrillas apparently have lost another valuable political asset: Members of legal leftist unions and human rights groups have been seen in the trenches carrying guns. The government, which had accused the organizations of fronting for the rebels, is moving to shut them down now.

The rebels argue that the government was already closing the “political space” for these groups. They blame the military for the Oct. 31 bombing of the Salvadoran National Workers Federation union hall that left 10 dead.

“Maybe (the guerrillas) exposed a lot of their networks, but they built new ones during a week in the capital,” a source close to the FMLN said. “They are not weaker in the capital, but stronger.”

The pace of life in most of this capital of 1.5 million people returned to near normal Monday, not so much at the government’s urging but because people had run out of food and cash and needed to go back to work.

The reprieve was not without tension and uncertainty over what is to come.

The guerrillas suggest they are planning another offensive, and their radio issued a new warning that they would blow up gasoline stations and halt traffic. Some suggest the rebels may be anticipating a military coup that would open the possibility for negotiations with junior officers.

Other analysts fear that the unshackled right wing, taking advantage of the state of siege, will step up repression.

Although Cristiani has agreed in principle to the Pope’s call for a cease-fire, few expect one to materialize any time soon. Hard-liners in the government want to hold the guerrilla leadership criminally responsible for the casualties of their offensive--a move that could legally block Cristiani from sitting down with the rebels.