Payoff Chances Ride on Second Favorites

If you would like to win as frequently as possible, I would strongly recommend that you stay away from long shots. They may be fun, and they certainly can get you the high prices, but at best, such play surely will put a crimp in your bankroll.

On the other hand, betting on favorites can get you a barrelful of winners, particularly since they finish first 30% to 33% of the time. However, the prices on favorites are so low that the same bet on these nags every race of the season also is bound to take you to the cleaners. Perhaps not as fast as long shots do, but certainly sooner or later.

You might consider a compromise: a system that’s as simple as twiddling your thumbs and that is based on logical and sound deductions. Simply play the second favorite.

Second choices win 20% to 24% of the time, which makes them pretty attractive to bet and even more interesting for progressive bettors. Combined with a money management system, there’s no reason why they can’t put you ahead at the end of the meeting.

Second favorites generally give race goers an overlooked horse that a significant number of bettors think will win.

Compared to the favorite, the second choice may have fewer wins, slower morning workouts, what the public perceives as a weak jockey, the wrong post position, too much weight, a lack of speed in past races, the wrong distance, bloodshot eyes, a forked tongue or bad breath. Whatever the reasons--and you can probably figure out many more--bettors tend to shy away.

One good thing about a second-favorite system is that you’ll get plenty of action, because you can play every race on a day’s card. Also, these ponies generally perform no worse than 20% over a long period and when they win, it’s at fairly decent prices.

Second favorites ran pretty much to form this year at Hollywood Park and Santa Anita race tracks.

Of 810 races, 174 were won by second choices, for a 21% clip. At Hollywood Park, 127 won out of 603 races and at Santa Anita 174 won out of 810. More important, during 57 days of the 67-day meet at Hollywood Park, at least one second choice won. At Santa Anita, there was at least one winner 81 of 90 days.

What bettors, particularly those who love to wager progressively, may find even more interesting is the streak of 34 consecutive racing days, Feb. 8, 1989, to March 24, 1989, when at least one second choice won.

Payoffs also were pretty good for these ponies. Lowest price was $2.70 and the highest $14.80 at Hollywood Park. Santa Anita win prices were $5.20 to $13.20.

Here’s how the system works:

On July 8, 1989, at Hollywood Park, five second choices won. In the first race, a $12,000 claimer for 4-year-olds and up at 1 1/8 miles, the favorite, Revolutionary, lukewarm in the betting at $3.30 to $1, ran last in a 10-horse field. Famillion, the second favorite at $4.20 to $1, was outrun early but went for the lead nearing the stretch. Famillion drew clear in the final furlong and ended up the winner by 1 3/4 lengths. It paid $10.40. For a $2 bet, your profit would have been $8.40.

The second race chalked up another win when Natural Candy, in a $16,000 maiden claimer for 3-year-olds and up, raced six furlongs wire to wire to win by two lengths, paying $8.20. After deducting the $2 bet on the race, your winnings would have totaled $14.60.

There were no wins for system bettors during the third, fourth and fifth races, cutting profits to $8.60. But the sixth saw Runaway Prince win at $9.20.

Major Current won the seventh race at $9.80, and your profit was up to $23.60.

In the eighth race, the 45th running of the Landaluce for 2-year-old fillies and a purse of $100,000, the betting was between Forest Fealty and Dominant Dancer. Just before the start of the race, Forest Fealty, luckily for system bettors, became the favorite at $2 to $1 and Dominant Dancer second choice at $2.20 to $1.

Although Dominant Dancer was off slowly and jostled in the first few strides, the horse, before hitting the three-furlong mark, came on to take the lead over Forest Fealty. Dominant Dancer drew out in the final furlong to win by four lengths. Forest Fealty faded to seventh. The payoff was only $6.40, but it was enough to boost the day’s profit to $28.

In the ninth, system players lost, but they still managed to end up with a $26 profit. Although this sum may seem small and unsatisfying to some bettors, wagering $10 a race would have boosted the returns. Profit would have added up to a tidy $130. If you would have had enough cash to bet $100 a race, your profit would have zoomed to $1,300 for the nine races.

How does progressive betting work?

When you use a simple progression such as $2-$3-$4-$5-$6-$7-$8-$9-$10 for the nine races, the most you can lose every race for the day is $54, which shouldn’t be difficult to make up once you hit a winner or two. Of course, you can vary the numbers. For example, you can bet $2-$2-$3-$3-$4-$4-$5-$5-$6-$6. There is an infinite number of ways.

Consider the series of progressive bets from $2 to $10. If you didn’t win the first five races, which progressively you bet $2-$3-$4-$5-$6, you were out $20. Then you should have bet $7 on the sixth race. Assuming you won at a $6.20 payoff, you would have turned it around for a $1.70 profit. At this point you just keep betting $2 every race. If you lose, simply start the betting progression over again.

Of course, there is no winning guarantee. Anything can and does happen in horse racing. With a system, however, the race goer’s chances of winning are increased considerably, particularly if you have a good, solid, system horse going against nondescript opposition.

However, I would be the last person in the world to advise anyone to withdraw money from a savings account and put it into an investment at the race track. Not only is it difficult to pick a winner, but the more you bet, the more you can lose.

Look at the poor favorite. Although it is the most consistent winner at the track, it still loses about 67% of the time.

BETTING THE SYSTEMS will be published each Monday in the P.M. Final edition of The Times. It is written by staff writer Norman Dash, a newspaperman for 30 years. Dash is the author of two books, “Great Betting Systems” and “How to Win With Great Betting Systems.” His column, “Great Betting Systems,” ran weekly for two years in the Los Angeles Herald Examiner.