Top Weight Can Pay Off With Top Dollar

When a track’s racing secretary puts weight on the ponies, he has an ulterior motive. His job, a calculating one, is to make the nags equal despite their relative talent. That is, when the horses hit the wire, all the noses will be in a straight line and tied for first place.

Such shenanigans, of course, are strictly legal, inasmuch as it’s the track official who sets up the race rather than the poor schnook with the holes in his shoes who does the betting or the jockey who decides while racing to nonchalantly give his pony a jolt by electrically charging his horse to make it go faster.

Most likely, when the secretary sees his weight figures blown day after day, it will be the men in the lightweight white coats who will drag him away and not the guys in the heavy blue coats.

Although a weight theory as concocted by the tracks sounds logical, rarely does it work out. How often is there a dead heat? Rarer yet, when was the last time a triple-dead heat occurred?

In any case, no pursuer of the riches at the fingertips of the bettors at the track can ignore the weight factor. It’s like when you ask a mountain climber why he’s attempting such a dangerous pursuit; he’ll tell you, “Because it’s there.”

However, many professional handicappers and bettors alike, when they see a nag dropping a couple of pounds off his last race, believe it’s time for the nag to make amends for past losses. Others wait to chunk it in only after a steed loses a substantial amount--say five pounds.

Contrary to the way these handicappers and bettors figure, high weight could be an advantage.

For instance, on May 3, 1989, at Hollywood Park, the eighth race saw Corvettin, carrying 117 pounds in a 6 1/2-furlong allowance race for fillies and mares, close with a rush and nip Lori’s Light by a nose. Backers of the horse received a hefty $44.20 for a $2 win ticket.

If you had played the system that calls for a bet on the highest-weighted horse, you, too, would have won. It’s simple. However, if two or more horses tie for top weight, skip the race.

On the day that Corvettin won, two other high weights also came in. The second race favorite, Jennysport, carrying 123 pounds, easily sped to victory by 3 1/2 lengths, paying $4, and Desperate, with 119 pounds on its back, won the third race by 5 1/2 lengths, also paying $4.

For bettors of the system, only five of the nine races qualified. Total returns would have amounted to $52.20, while bets for races would have added up to $10. Profit for the day would have been a neat $42.20.

Those who wager on the high-weighted horses, of course, get an edge. Only the top nags are penalized. This means that the top-weighted animals should have a better chance than most. Since weights generally are based on races won, money won or both, bettors on them get the best horses.

But no one knows for certain whether weight is more important, for instance, than class, the jockey, length of the race, post position, condition of the horse or racing luck. Many experts will tell you, however, to forget such factors and mostly consider the horse and how it ran in the past.

I’ve always believed that weight is greatly overemphasized in analyzing form. Although extra weight naturally may slow a horse, horse racing generally doesn’t work out exactly as handicappers figure it should.

For example, if a horse has never carried 118 pounds and is suddenly assessed 124 pounds, I don’t think it’s going to make any difference, no matter how long the race. I’ve seen horses carrying 122 pounds finish second or third in a race and then finish second or third a few days later, carrying 10 pounds less at the same distance.

How would the horse know what’s up? For instance, if a horse picks up five pounds and you ask it whether the weight is going to make a difference, the nag isn’t about to say: “No. It’ll be a piece of cake.” What he’s going to do is take the weight and make the best of it. He’s certainly not going to knock the track secretary or his owner--not if he wants to eat regularly.

Here’s how to bet the high weight. Consider the fifth race at Santa Anita on March 19, 1989. Rundown by post position and weight:

1--Air Worthy, 118

2--Sure Swift, 116

3--Nasib, 113

4--Rufus Dawes, 115

5--Canon Law, 113

6--Individualist, 111

7--Neferou, 113

8--Aranjuez, 113

9--Rockard, 116

10--Record Turnout, 116

11--Samarid, 116

12--Accomplish Ridge, 116

Air Worthy would have been the horse to bet in the 6 1/2-furlong race. As it turned out, Air Worthy broke slowly but came on strong in the stretch to win by three-quarters of a length. It paid $82.40.

Four other horses qualified March 19, requiring a total outlay of $8. Although Air Worthy was the only winner for the day, profit came to a delightful $74.40.

What might throw bettors off are the overweights. If you handicap your horses the night before the races, you may find when you get to the track the next day that your nag has picked up some weight because the jockey lived it up at the dinner table the night before.

No matter, stick to your track program and study the horses and their weights. You shouldn’t have any difficulty in choosing which pony to bet on, particularly after the track announcer gives everyone the corrected weights.

Actually, high-weight betting has another big advantage. Since many experts and fans ignore the horses carrying the “big pounds,” when one wins, prices tend to skyrocket.

BETTING THE SYSTEMS will be published each Monday in the P.M. Final edition of The Times. It is written by staff writer Norman Dash, a newspaperman for 30 years. Dash is the author of two books, “Great Betting Systems” and “Win With Great Betting Systems.” His column, “Great Betting Systems,” ran weekly for two years in the Los Angeles Herald Examiner.