Though their past gaffes haven’t faded away, those fearless pro forecasters, heading into a new decade, have no hestitation in putting a . . . : Finger on Fate : A Trend Watcher

William P. Butz, associate director of the Census Bureau, is sometimes described as the bureau’s expert on demographic trends.

Butz sounded modest about that reputation as he spoke recently from bureau headquarters in Suitland, Md. But he did allow that he was “more right than wrong” in 1979 with a prediction about the fertility rate.

Then at the RAND Corp., he and a friend wrote an article: “We said if the economy expanded, which it did, the fertility rate should go down, or at least not up. Others were saying it would go up. The rate--the number of children per 1,000 women of childbearing age--did go down, although the actual number of births increased. That’s because all of the baby boom women were having children.”

And of that on-target prediction, he said, “That’s not so much fun, is it?”

Enough about that. Here come the ‘90s, and here comes the 1990 census right around the corner. Any predictions?

“Oh heavens,” he said, “I don’t know what will come up. Only fools or economists dare predict the future, and although I’m an economist, I’m going to pass.”

But then he did say things were looking good for the census.

When will the census takers come knocking at the door?

“The only way they’ll come knocking at your door is if you don’t send in your census form,” Butz said. “In that case, unless you live way out somewhere like Topanga Canyon, you can expect them around mid-April.”