Modesto’s Mail-In Ballot May Mark a Model Vote

Political consultants believe that they have seen the future of California elections, and it is in Modesto.

An unprecedented use of absentee ballots has focused statewide attention on an otherwise obscure special election today for an Assembly seat representing this northern San Joaquin Valley city and surrounding communities.

With both the Democratic and Republican candidates spurring voters to use the absentee system, about half the expected voters already have cast their ballots. Barring an unexpectedly large turnout at the polls, the percentage of absentee votes in the race will easily set a record for California, according to the secretary of state.

And in the process, the 27th Assembly District contest will become a possible model for how California elections will be waged in the future.

Political consultants view voting by mail in advance of elections as an effective campaign tool because these are votes the candidate can bank on, votes that can’t be swayed by final-hour appeals from the opposition. Also, by studying which neighborhoods are returning absentee ballots, campaign managers can study apparent voting trends and adjust their strategy accordingly. And after years of declining voter turnout, the widespread use of absentee ballots could significantly increase the number of voters.

“The absentee ballot is going to change how politics is played in California in the years to come,” said Bernd Schwieren, a political consultant who is the campaign manager for Richard Lang, the Republican candidate in the 27th District race.

The pursuit of absentee votes in the contest became so competitive that the state Republican Party created a campaign controversy by hiring Kelly Services and other temporary workers to walk precincts and collect absentee ballot applications. In addition to their hourly salary, the workers were paid $1 for each absentee ballot application they collected.

Today’s special election was called to fill the vacancy left when former Assemblyman Gary Condit, a Democrat, won election to Congress last fall. Condit replaced Democrat Tony Coelho, who resigned his seat amid controversy over his personal finances.

Break With Tradition

Traditionally, absentee ballots were only used by people unable to make it to the polls on Election Day, either because they were out of town or ill. But in the late 1970s, during the Administration of Democratic Gov. Edmund G. Brown Jr., legislation passed that enabled California’s registered voters to use absentee ballots for any reason, including simple convenience.

In 1982, this legislation played a key role in a major election for the first time when Republican George Deukmejian defeated Democrat Tom Bradley in an extremely tight gubernatorial race. Bradley received the most votes among those who went to the polls on Election Day, but because Republican campaign strategists sent hundreds of thousands of absentee ballot applications to voters throughout the state, Deukmejian won the race.

Since then, extensive use of absentee ballots figured sporadically in state elections, but it was not a major factor again until Condit’s victory in the special congressional election in the San Joaquin Valley four months ago.

Condit’s aggressive solicitation of absentee ballots was a strategy devised by San Francisco political consultant Clinton Reilly. Said John Whitehurst, Condit’s campaign manager: “In special elections, the turnout is low and more Republicans than Democrats traditionally vote. . . . We were looking for a way to compete. We went after the absentee ballots as a way to get more Democrats to vote.”

Whitehurst added, “Because we had such a lead in the mail vote in the Condit campaign, I knew a week before Election Day that we’d won.”

In December, the absentee-ballot strategy again helped a Democrat. Former Assemblywoman Lucy Killea of San Diego lost among Election Day voters in a state Senate race, but because she locked up enough absentee votes, she won the contest.

The abortion issue received most of the attention in the campaign because Roman Catholic Bishop Leo T. Maher barred Killea, a Catholic, from receiving Communion because of her pro-choice stand. But in terms of pure tactics, her pursuit of absentee voters was critical to her victory, political consultants said.

Republicans learned from their two 1989 losses and vowed to fight for the absentee vote in future state elections, said James Dignan, vice chairman of the California Republican Party.

“We realized that if we were going to be successful in the 1990s, we were going to have to improve our techniques in getting the absentee ballot,” Dignan said.

In the 27th District race, Democratic candidate Sal Cannella criticized the state GOP for its use of temporary workers in collecting absentee ballots, calling the tactic “a desperate attempt . . . to try to buy this election.”

Dignan defended hiring temporary workers, saying they have been used in other political campaigns, and “they were well worth the money.”

After the primary election for the Assembly seat on Dec. 5, both Lang, the Republican, and Cannella began the campaign for the mail vote. They identified voters using computerized data banks and sent out absentee ballot applications to party members. The applications, which included campaign pitches from other politicians, were already filled out with the voter’s name and address. All voters had to do was sign the application and mail it to receive their absentee ballot. The Republicans even provided free postage.

The campaign staffs followed up with phone calls and door-to-door visits to ensure that the targeted voters sent in their applications and then their ballots.

“In a state where many people are commuting long distances, voting by mail is definitely the coming thing,” said Barry Wyatt, chief of staff for Assemblyman Rusty Areias (D-Los Banos). “I commute to Sacramento every day and I’m up at 6:30 in the morning and home at 8 at night, and it’s darn hard to vote. Punching out the ballot at home, at my leisure, makes a lot more sense.”