COMMENTARY : College Students in NFL Draft--A Lot to Gain, a Lot to Lose

Record numbers of college underclassmen will exchange their scholarships for the more tenuous promise of the National Football League draft this year, a trend disturbing to many collegiate and professional authorities. There are a variety of specific causes, but the overall ones may be the impatient nature of 20-year-olds, and the agents who murmur to them about salary caps and six-figure contracts.

Nine prominent college football players with eligibility remaining have announced they will forgo their final seasons and petition for early entry to the NFL draft. Agents and league officials predict that 15 to 35 could declare that intention by the April 9 deadline, and Heisman Trophy winner Andre Ware of Houston may be one. He acknowledged in a telephone interview he is rethinking his decision to return to school.

“The main thing in most players’ cases is the ability to give your family financial stability for a long time,” Ware said. “That and the fact that every young man who lives in the U.S. has a dream of playing in the NFL. Some just feel it’s their time now. But it’s a big decision, and I’m not in any rush to make it.”

At USC, defensive star Junior Seau announced Thursday that he will enter the NFL draft. (Story, C3.) Safety Mark Carrier, who is less certain of his value, is also considering whether to skip his senior season . The NFLPA has told Carrier he will be gambling, and he is ambivalent. As for agents, he said, “They’re going to tell you you’re first round.” Carrier is just two classes from obtaining a degree and may return to USC to play while attending graduate school.

The potential flood could cause the NFL to set aside its rule barring players who have not completed their college eligibility from entering the draft. While the league does not want to be seen as encouraging underclassmen to leave early, the rule probably cannot withstand legal challenge. No underclassman has challenged it thus far, but legal experts see the rule as vulnerable to antitrust law. The NFL routinely has granted exceptions to players, unwilling to be tested in court.

The NCAA could also make a rule change to allow players to preserve eligibility while exploring the draft. NCAA Executive Director Dick Schultz favors such a move, but he also said the decision to come out is potentially “a real disaster” for some athletes. The NCAA and NFL are holding talks to determine how best to grapple with the issue, which Schultz calls “a double responsibility.”

One force that seems to be driving players into the marketplace is the threat, oft-repeated by agents, of an NFL salary cap for rookies by 1991 or 1992. Fearing that waiting a year could limit their earning potential, some have decided to cash in now.

Another reason is the success of Barry Sanders of the Detroit Lions, who petitioned for early entry after winning the Heisman as a junior at Oklahoma State and became the NFC rookie of the year.

What those influences translate into, simply, are dollars and fame.

What many undergraduates may be overlooking is the cost of miscalculating their worth. The NFL Players Assn. and even a number of agents are issuing widespread cautions in an attempt to stem the flow.

“I think absolutely some kids will make the wrong decision,” said Sanders’ agent, David Ware of Atlanta, who contends his client was an exception. “Teammates, agents and in some cases even their mothers and fathers are telling them, ‘Go ahead.’ And they won’t be picked highly at all.”

A few facts of life: According to the NFLPA, only 35% of the league’s players have college degrees. And the average career span of an NFL player is fewer than four years.

The NFLPA has also found that the career of a player with a degree is 50% longer than one without. And the average salary of a player with a degree is 16% higher than one without.

The reason, according to NFLPA Director of Research Mike Duberstein, is that NFL players are asked to spend considerable time in classroom situations. In the constant meetings, film sessions, etc., they are asked to absorb more technical information than they encountered in college.

“The difference in NFL talent is minimal,” Duberstein contends. “But the difference in intellectual capacity is not. Those with degrees have a little more mental acuity and discipline.”

There also are some short-term financial considerations for underclassmen. Duberstein maintains that it is only sensible to enter if a player is an assured first-rounder. At this point, only linebacker Keith McCants of Alabama, running back Emmitt Smith of Florida and Seau can claim that status. If Andre Ware comes out, he is likely to be a first-rounder. No one else can be sure.

Just 25 players can be first-round picks. Meanwhile, there are roughly 80 players who either consider themselves or are being told that they are first-round material, which means a number of misguided juniors could go as low as the fourth round.

What that also means is that NFL teams may acquire some first-round talent for fourth-round salaries in what some are calling potentially the deepest draft in years.

The lack of motivation by NFL-bound college football players to earn degrees may be lamentable. But it applies to all athletes, not just college football underclassmen, and some contend it is a separate issue from the legal and economic ones.

Agent Leigh Steinberg contends the NCAA can’t hope to legislate academic goals for athletes.

“There’s no natural connection between attending school and the ability to play pro ball,” Steinberg said. “The two concepts don’t flow together.”

The NFL is expected to do something; Commissioner Paul Tagliabue acknowledges the need to relax the rule. The question is what.

“The commissioner has said he feels it’s important to set some standard,” league spokesman Jim Heffernan said. “But he hasn’t said we’ll take anybody that walks in.”

Other options: a two-phase draft, adding one for juniors unsure whether they want to turn pro. Penn State Coach Joe Paterno has suggested that NFL teams should offer contract incentives for players to obtain degrees. Schultz is also unsure of how it may be resolved.

“Our position is an athlete has the right to leave any time he wants,” Schultz said. “The thing is, a lot of kids come out for the wrong reasons. He doesn’t make it, he has no eligibility, and he can’t afford to go back to school. It can be a real disaster. We just want to make sure they stay or leave for the right reasons.”

The NCAA could shoulder the burden by allowing a player to test his worth in the draft but return to school if he decides his value is too low. An NFL team would not give up the draft pick unless the player signed. But at any rate the NCAA cannot do anything until its convention next year, so it appears there will not be an easy resolution.