Is Mitchell’s Sequel Destined to Flop?

What will Kevin Mitchell do for an encore? It’s a question on the minds of many as the 1990 baseball season begins, and precedent suggests he will not approach his accomplishments of 1989.

There already are ominous signs pointing to a decline in his productivity. Mitchell had two home runs after two games of the 1989 season; he may miss this year’s opening three-game series at Atlanta, beginning Tuesday night, because of a sprained left wrist.

Last year Mitchell used spring training as a springboard to his MVP season. He was the rage of the Cactus League with a .455 average and seven home runs. This spring he batted .273 with no home runs, and he was injured.

He also raised eyebrows by reporting to camp later than his teammates, and he showed up overweight. He isn’t happy with his $2.1 million, one-year contract. Some teammates were given long-term security. Mitchell doesn’t feel respected.

“Nobody put up the numbers I did last year and didn’t get a contract for at least two or three years,” said Mitchell, who led the majors with 47 home runs and 125 runs batted in. “Security is important to me.

“I would have liked a longer contract. It’s like I have to start all over again, like I have to prove myself again. I really don’t feel like I’m going to be around here next year.”

That doesn’t sound like a player oozing with confidence. If the San Francisco Giants attempted to trade him (for Joe Carter) after an MVP season, what’s to stop them when he returns to normal?

And chances are that he will return to normal. No player in San Francisco Giants history has enjoyed a season of Mitchell’s caliber and improved upon it the next year -- and the list includes Hall of Famers Willie Mays and Willie McCovey.

Mitchell plans to defy the odds. At 28, he should be reaching his prime as a hitter. There’s no reason for him to feel otherwise. He isn’t concerned with the expectations of others, but he has his own.

“I can’t worry about what other people want or say,” Mitchell said. “I’ve just gotta be me. I just want to play baseball. Sure, I think I can improve. I don’t put limits on myself.

“I’m young and strong. I just go up to the plate and hit the ball hard. There’s no reason I can’t keep doing that. I take care of myself. I take care of my body. I don’t smoke or drink.”

History tells us that it will be extremely difficult for Mitchell to live up to expectations. Even Mays took a statistical plunge after his greatest seasons in San Francisco.

Mays led the National League with 49 home runs and set San Francisco standards with 382 total bases and 90 extra-base hits while helping the 1962 club win a pennant. One year later, he hit 38 homers, and his RBI total dipped from 141 to 103.

When Mays earned MVP honors in 1965, he hit a Giants-record 52 home runs, batted .317 and had a .645 slugging percentage. The next season he hit 37 homers, batted .288 and slugged .556. He never had more than 28 homers or 83 RBI thereafter.

“You want to have a great year every year, but that’s not going to happen,” Mays said. “I told Mitch not to think about last year. That kind of season wasn’t unusual for me, but it’s very difficult for the average guy.

“Kevin just can’t start worrying about expectations this year. He’s just got to do what he can. It’s life for people to expect a lot from you once you’ve had a big year, but you just can’t let it affect you.

“What he did last year was a great achievement. He went from 19 homers to 47, so it’s natural for people to ask if he’s for real and wonder what he’ll do this season. He just can’t be worrying about that.

“I never placed added pressure on myself by setting goals too high. I started every season wanting to score 100 runs, to knock in 100 and to bat .300. I just hope you media guys don’t put too much pressure on him by expecting homers.”

Orlando Cepeda was caught in such a trap. Since Mays and McCovey were in their 30s when they enjoyed super seasons, a better analogy can be made with Mitchell and Cepeda, each of whom blossomed in his fourth major-league season.

Mitchell was 27 last year. Cepeda, at age 23, earned Rookie of the Year honors in 1958 and led the league with 46 home runs and 142 RBI in 1961. Cepeda never came close to those numbers again.

Since Cepeda hit his 46 the same year Roger Maris surpassed Babe Ruth’s record with 61 for the New York Yankees, there was considerable speculation the Giants’ Baby Bull was the most likely candidate to erase Maris’ asterisk mark.

“Expectations will be very high for Kevin,” Cepeda said. “That’s only natural, but it’s going to be very hard for him to hit 47 homers again, especially at Candlestick Park.

“If he has 35 homers and 115 RBI this season, some people will say it’s not a good year. I hope the media doesn’t place a lot of pressure on him. I know it affected me in 1962.

“I expected to do better that year,” said Cepeda, who dropped to 35 homers and 114 RBI after his career year. “But I played winter ball in Puerto Rico, and I was dead by July.

“I had a good start, and I was thinking about Maris’ record. By May, the media reminded me of it every day. I put additional pressure on myself. I was trying to hit home runs.

“The key for Mitch is not to get hurt,” Cepeda said before Mitchell’s wrist injury.

Jack Clark never won any home-run or RBI titles, but he is another example of unfulfilled expectations. At 22, he set an all-time Giants record with 46 doubles and batted .306 in 1978. His production tailed off in 1979, and he never has hit for a higher average.

McCovey is the only Giant who didn’t slump appreciably after a banner year. He was the MVP in 1969 with 45 homers, 126 RBI and a .320 average. One year later, he hit 39 homers and again had 126 RBI.

“I felt I could have done a little better if they had pitched to me more and not walked me so much, and if I had been healthier,” said McCovey, who was walked 121 times in 1969 and a record 137 times in 1970.

Mays and Cepeda, right-handed batters like Mitchell, point to Candlestick as the main reason to expect fewer home runs from the 1989 sensation.

“I’m sure Mitch had some balls held up by the wind at Candlestick,” Mays said. “It’s not that hard to hit 30 homers, but it’s very difficult to get to 40. To hit 35 to 40, you’ve got to keep playing, and you’ve got to play with pain.”

Said Cepeda: “Kevin is in his prime, so he’s capable of more 40-homer years. He’s as strong as a bull, but Candlestick is not a help.”

Statistics, in fact, demonstrate that Mitchell was affected more by Candlestick than were his predecessors. Mitchell connected for only 20 of his 47 homers at home last year. When Cepeda hit 46, 24 were hit at home.

Of Mays’ team-record 52 home runs in 1965, 24 were hit at Candlestick. McCovey displayed the most balance, hitting 22 at home and 23 on the road in 1969.

Giants batting coach Dusty Baker sees no reason why Mitchell cannot continue to improve. Baker concedes, though, that 1989 might have been a career year for Mitch.

“I’m not placing any limits on Mitch,” Baker said. “He can be as good as he wants to be. At 28, he’s just reaching his prime. He’s a guy who’s been a regular for only two years. He’s just beginning.

“It probably was a career year for Mitch, but the name of the game is consistency, and he certainly had it last year. He stayed in a groove about as well as anyone I’ve ever seen.”

Mitchell seems undaunted by the commotion. He realizes he is under a microscope, but he really doesn’t understand his newfound fame.

“I really have no feeling about the numbers I put up,” Mitchell said. “What I did last year just doesn’t affect me. I don’t want to get caught up in all that. I just want to be me.”

That seems impossible. Mitchell may not be able to completely escape his troubled past, but superstar status has rewarded him with the trappings of success, such as a new home and nice cars.

“It’s definitely different now,” he said. “There are a lot more people wanting a piece of me, a lot more distractions. I had to start limiting what I did over the winter. I wanted to chill out.

“I had to keep changing my phone number. I didn’t ask for all the attention. At the same time, I realize things have changed. I’m in the public eye, and I know that’s a responsibility. I want to do more for kids in San Diego and for my family.”

But some things never change. Despite his words of wisdom, there is an immaturity about Mitchell that prevents him from being truly responsible. That’s why he skips engagements, misses workouts and shows up late to camp.

There are claims of a double standard on the Giants, where management seems to overlook Mitchell’s transgressions because of the 47 homers and 125 RBI.

“Nothing will be done about Mitch as long as he produces,” a teammate said. “He’ll be tolerated as long as he keeps coming through. If he doesn’t, this will be a very interesting clubhouse.”

So the key word is “production.” History says it can’t possibly be as fruitful for Mitchell in 1990.

We may have seen the best of Mitchell in 1989. If so, we may see the last of him in 1990.