Lots of Luck Is Needed on Draft Day

Drafting, say the experts, is 10% genius and 90% luck.

Or vice versa, which is something to keep in mind when your favorite team makes its picks Sunday and Monday.

Or as Jim Finks of the Saints said after he drafted Rueben Mayes on the third round of the 1986 draft and Mayes became offensive rookie of the year:

“If I was so smark, I’d have taken him on the first round.”

Finks is lucky he didn’t take Mayes on the second. Mayes has spent most of his time since 1986 on the injured list. Last year, the Saints’ 1986 second-round choice, Dalton Hilliard, rushed for 1,242 yards and led the league with 18 touchdowns.

Such is the luck of the draft, of which there are endless examples.

YO, VINNY!

Don Majkowski became one of the NFL’s most exciting quarterbacks last season, pulling out four games in the last minute, making the Pro Bowl and almost single-handedly dragging Green Bay from 4-12 to 10-6 and to within one play of the playoffs.

Majkowski lasted 10 rounds and 255 picks into the 1987 draft, when he was the 11th quarterback selected.

Four quarterbacks went in the first round--Vinny Testaverde to Tampa Bay with the first pick overall; Kelly Stouffer to the Cardinals with the sixth; Chris Miller to Atlanta with the 13th and Jim Harbaugh to Chicago with the 24th. Stouffer didn’t sign and was subsequently traded to Seattle for two first-rounders.

Testaverde and Miller are the only ’87 quarterbacks besides Majkowski who start, although Steve Beuerlein of the Raiders (4th round, 110th overall) is alternated with Jay Schroeder; Stouffer will challenge Dave Krieg this season, and Harbaugh will compete with Mike Tomczak (by default) for the Bears’ job.

And whatever happened to Gregg Harris, Jeff Drost, Bill Smith, Tony Leiker, Willie Marshall and Lorenzo Freeman?

All were taken by the Packers before Majkowski.

THE THREE-YEAR TEST

It normally takes three years to determine how well a team has drafted.

Applying that to 1987, the Oscar goes to Buffalo, which got eight starters, including two Pro Bowlers.

On the first round, the Bills traded down from third to ninth and still got the man they wanted, Shane Conlan, who turned into a Pro Bowl linebacker. Then they turned the extra second-rounder they got in the deal into Nate Odomes, who has become their best cornerback.

They also got fullback Jamie Mueller on the third round; Leon Seals (4), who will start at defensive end this year; Kerry Porter (7), another starting cornerback; Keith McKeller (9), the starting tight end, and Howard Ballard (11), a starting offensive tackle.

And finally, in October, they traded for Cornelius Bennett, who had refused to sign with Indianapolis, in the three-way Eric Dickerson deal.

BEST PICKS OF 1987

Don Majkowski, qb, Green Bay (10) see above.

Merril Hoge, rb, Pittsburgh (10)

Christian Okoye, rb, Kansas City (2)

Jerry Ball, nt, Detroit (3), who was good enough that into the 1989 Plan B pool went Dan Saleaumua, nt, Detroit (7), on to Kansas City

Mark Carrier, wr, Tampa Bay (3)

Henry Thomas, nt, Minnesota (3)

Rick Fenney, rb, Minnesota (8)

Michael Stewart, s, Los Angeles Rams (8)

Gene Atkins, cb, New Orleans (7)

Steve Trapilo, g, New Orleans (4)

Howard Ballard, t, Buffalo (11)

Doug Riesenberg, t, New York Giants (6)

Byron Evans, lb, Philadelphia (4)

Tim McDonald, s, Phoenix (2)

Timmy Smith, rb, Washington (5)

1987 only.

BUSTS OF 1987

Reggie Rogers, de, Detroit (1)

Shawn Knight, de, New Orleans (1)

Mike Junkin, lb, Cleveland (1)

Paul Palmer, rb, Kansas City (1)

John Clay, ot, Los Angeles Raiders (1)

Brian Bosworth, lb, Seattle (Supplemental 1)

Donald Evans, de-fb, Los Angeles Rams (2)

Kenny Flowers, rb, Atlanta (2)

Louis Brock, db, San Diego (2)

Wally Kleine, dl, Washington (2)

Timmy Smith, rb, Washington (5)

After ’87

The entire Indianapolis, Atlanta, San Diego and Kansas City drafts (except for Chris Miller and Christian Okoye)

THE QUARTERBACK TEST

To get a good quarterback, you have to take him on the first round.

Right?

Not Majkowski, and not Joe Montana (No. 3, 1979)

Here’s a breakdown with rounds and years that starters and part-time starters entered the league.

Round 1: Jim Kelly, Bills (1983); Bernie Kosar, Browns (Supplemental, 1985); John Elway, Broncos (1983); Dan Marino, Dolphins (1983); Marc Wilson, Patriots (1980); Ken O’Brien, Jets (1983); Jim McMahon, Chargers (1982); Kelly Stouffer, Seahawks (1987); Chris Miller, Falcons (1987); Jim Harbaugh, Bears (1987); Troy Aikman, Cowboys (1989); Jim Everett, Rams (1986); Phil Simms, Giants (1979); Steve Young, 49ers (USFL supplemental, 1984); Vinny Testaverde, Bucs, 1987).

Round 2: Boomer Esiason, Bengals (1984); Jack Trudeau, Colts (1986); Billy Joe Tolliver, Chargers (1989); Randall Cunningham, Eagles (1985).

Round 3: Chris Chandler, Colts (1988); Jay Schroeder, Raiders, 1984); Bubby Brister, Steelers (1986); Joe Montana, 49ers (1979).

Round 4: Steve Beuerlein, Raiders, (1987).

Round 5: Steve Pelluer, Chiefs (1984); Steve Grogan, Patriots (1975); Gary Hogeboom, Cards, (1980).

Round 6: Rodney Peete, Lions (1989); Mark Rypien, Redskins (1986).

Round 8: Wade Wilson, Vikings (1981)

Round 10: Steve DeBerg, Chiefs (1977); Don Majkowski, Packers (1977)

Round 12: Bob Gagliano, Lions (1981)

Free Agents: Warren Moon, Oilers (via Canada) (1984); Dave Krieg, Seahawks (1980); Mike Tomczak, Bears (1985); John Fourcade, Saints (via Canada, the USFL, Arena Football and the NFL Strike Replacement League)(1985); Bobby Hebert, Saints (via USFL) (1985).

“GENIUS”

Bobby Beathard, who unearthed such players as Dexter Manley, Charles Mann and Mark Rypien in middle rounds, is rightly considered one of the NFL’s best talent scouts. So is Dick Steinberg, who moved from personnel director of the Patriots to general manager of the Jets.

Both are human.

In 1985, Steinberg traded down in the first round, giving up the 16th pick to the 49ers who chose . . . Jerry Rice. The Pats got center Trevor Matich and used the extra pick on defensive end Ben Thomas.

Steinberg still likes Matich--he got him back for the Jets as a Plan B free agent after he had floated to Detroit. Thomas is long gone.

The next year, after the Patriots had gone to the Super Bowl, Steinberg had the next-to-last pick in the first round and took running back Reggie Dupard. The Bears, picking last took Neal Anderson.

Dupard is out of the league; Anderson just signed a contract that makes him the game’s highest paid runner.

“All you can do,” Steinberg says, “is take your highest rated guy and hope he’s not one of your mistakes.”

Beathard, who will do San Diego’s picking Sunday, doesn’t like first-round picks, although he’s good at them. He had just two in his 12 years with the Redskins--Art Monk and Darrell Green.

But he’s also human.

In 1985, his first pick was in the second round. He took cornerback Tory Nixon. After the first mini-camp, he packed him off to the 49ers for a fifth-rounder.

In 1986, he traded his first pick in 1987 to San Francisco to move up in the second round to draft wide receiver Walter Murray. Murray signed late and by midseason had been traded to Indianapolis for a second-round choice that was turned into cornerback Brian Davis, who is OK but no star.

Murray?

His only contribution to NFL history was yo-yoing in and out of the Colts’ camp during the 1987 strike.