County’s Growth in ’89 Slowed, State Says : Population: Reports of a 1.9% gain to 668,553 residents puzzle officials expecting to see a faster rate of increase.

A new state report shows that Ventura County’s estimated population grew by less than 2% last year, the slowest annual growth rate here since 1981 and a puzzlement to local officials who expected to see faster growth.

“It’s not something that I would have expected, and I haven’t read anything that forecast that it was going to happen,” Ventura County Senior Planner Steve Wood said.

“My gut feeling is that it may just be a one-year drop, having something to do with interest rates or the cost of housing. . . . But I’m not sure.”

In its latest state population estimates, the state Department of Finance puts the county’s Jan. 1 population at 668,553. That represents a 1.9% increase over the state estimate for Jan. 1, 1989, contrasted with growth rates of between 2.2% and 2.8% annually during the previous eight years.

State officials make their estimates using 1980 census figures and adjusting them annually after a review of such figures as city statistics on new housing units, public school figures and utility billings.

A 1980 test of the state’s accuracy found that its figures fell within 2.9% of census findings on a countywide level and within 5% on a citywide level, an official said.

In the most recent report, the findings for Ventura County also showed that net migration into the county--the number of residents moving in, minus those moving out--has apparently fallen off. Net migration was estimated at 10,297 during 1987 and 10,072 in 1988, but just 5,168 last year.

“The net migration has gone off significantly,” said Linda von Rotz, a demographic researcher for the state Department of Finance. She noted that Los Angeles County’s net migration is also falling, from 24,148 in 1987 to 4,416 in 1988 to 1,881 last year.

Wood noted that a general decrease in migration to the Los Angeles area would naturally affect Ventura County, but suggested that growth-control ordinances in eight of the county’s 10 cities might also be a factor.

“That may be what’s happening,” Wood said. But “I kind of think over the long term that in-migration to this region is going to continue.”

“It could be a combination of the growth moratoriums as well as the changes in the interest rates,” said Phillip Bohan, economic development manager for the Private Industry Council of Ventura County.

“I don’t think there is any significance to it at this point--not just one year,” Bohan added. “If it happens two years in a row, then you need to look at it. . . . If we continued to have 1.9% growth, it might mean that we’re leveling off.”

In city-by-city figures, which state officials use in distributing revenues from cigarette taxes, motor vehicle fuel taxes and license fees, Moorpark and the county’s unincorporated areas grew fastest in the last year, while Santa Paula’s estimated population dipped slightly.

“We know we’re one of the fastest-growing communities in the state,” Moorpark Deputy City Manager Richard Hare said. “The council grapples with that every meeting--trying to balance growth and the needs of the community.”

Between 1980 and 1989, Ventura County’s state-estimated population rose 23.5%. Many of the new people settled in Moorpark, which incorporated in 1984 with 11,850 residents and had more than doubled that figure by 1989.

The new figures show Moorpark grew by an estimated 4.2% in 1989, to a population of 26,059, while the unincorporated areas grew by 4.1% to an estimated 97,708. Santa Paula’s estimated population dipped by 57 residents to 24,016.

Santa Paula was the only city in the county to show a decline in its estimated population and the first city in four years to show any population decrease. (Port Hueneme’s estimated population fell from 20,450 to 20,350 between January, 1985, and January, 1986, but in the new report rose to 21,242.)

“Who knows how accurate they are, really? There’s no way to know,” said Jeff Hamilton, Santa Paula’s assistant city planner. “We would have liked to see more people come into the town than leave, just because it would mean more money. . . . But I don’t think 50 people is going to affect the formula much.”

Statewide, the new figures estimate population growth of 2.7% over the year, pushing California’s estimated population to 29.47 million.

This round of estimates, officials said, will probably be the last state-generated figures until April, 1991, when the first findings of the 1990 U. S. Census are to be forwarded to the governor’s office.

POPULATION FIGURES

Jan. Jan. % 1989 1990 increase Camarillo 48,462 50,043 3.3 Fillmore 11,254 11,431 1.6 Moorpark 24,998 26,059 4.2 Ojai 7,935 7,988 0.7 Oxnard 128,478 129,908 1.1 Port Hueneme 20,752 21,242 2.4 Santa Paula 24,073 24,016 (-0.2) Simi Valley 100,116 101,523 1.4 Thousand Oaks 104,736 106,381 1.6 Ventura 91,138 92,254 1.2 Unincorporated 93,898 97,708 4.1 County total 655,840 668,553 1.9 State total 28,701,000 29,473,000 2.7