CALIFORNIA ELECTIONS: THE AD CAMPAIGN

The ballot measure: Proposition 111. Whose ad?: Citizens Against Unfair Taxation.

The 30-second spot features a series of charts showing what the sponsors believe will be the effect on state government if Proposition 111--to raise the gasoline tax and modify the state spending limit--is passed.

Elements of the ad, with an analysis by Times staff writer Virginia Ellis: Ad: “Proposition 111 on your ballot is the largest tax increase in the state’s history.”

Analysis: In terms of how much each taxpayer would pay, a tax increase approved in the early 1970s when Ronald Reagan was governor of California was much larger. That increase involved a much larger percentage of the state’s tax base. The increase came when the state made certain changes in the personal income tax and adopted the withholding system.

Ad: “It doubles the current gasoline tax from 9 to 18 cents per gallon.”

Analysis: Under Proposition 111, the gasoline tax would increase 5 cents per gallon the first year, followed by 1-cent-per-gallon increases each year for the next four years.

Ad: “It allows the politicians in Sacramento to increase state spending by $53 billion over the next 10 years.”

Analysis: This implies that the governor and state legislators would automatically approve massive tax increases so they could raise spending to the ceiling permitted by Proposition 111. Over the years, a solid anti-tax bloc in the Assembly has usually kept the Legislature from mustering the two-thirds vote needed to pass a tax hike. Last year the gasoline tax proposal was approved only after it was embraced by Gov. George Deukmejian, a strong foe of most tax increases, and after it was determined that it could not go into effect without voter approval.