Eu Predicts 43.7% Voter Turnout for State; 43% Seen in L.A. County

Despite a hotly contested race for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, and several controversial ballot propositions, only 43.7% of California’s approximately 13 million voters are expected to go to the polls on Tuesday, Secretary of State March Fong Eu predicted Friday.

Eu’s statewide prediction was in the same ballpark as that of Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder Charles Weissburd, who predicted Friday that 43% of the county’s 3.4 million registered voters will cast ballots.

The lowest turnout in modern times, both statewide and in Los Angeles, was in 1988. Just 36.8% voted that year in Los Angeles, and 40% statewide.

“If I am right, that means approximately 5,672,884 Californians” will vote, Eu said. “Since that number represents only 29.65% of the state’s eligible population, I hope voters prove me wrong and that my prediction is far too low.”

However, these predictions have been quite accurate in the past. Her office bases the predictions on a survey of 19 county registrars with 75% of the state’s vote. Weissburd said he looks at past turnout rates for gubernatorial primaries, level of interest he perceives in the races and ballot measures, weather forecasts and requests for absentee ballots.

“A lot of it is gut feeling,” Weissburd said, adding that he also checked the Medfly spray schedule, but found no spraying scheduled in Los Angeles County that could lower turnout. “I’ve been fairly accurate in my turnout predictions.” (Spraying is planned in Riverside and San Bernardino counties but usually occurs after the 8 p.m. poll closing time).

Orange County election officials are expecting a turnout of 45% or less, San Diego County less than 39% and Ventura County a percentage in the low 40s.

The number of absentee voters, which has been increasing with each election, is expected to rise again. Statewide, a record 14.1% of the votes in the 1988 general election were absentee ballots.

“We’re up to about 237,000 requests for absentee ballots this year, which is a huge amount for a primary election,” Weissburd said. “And we have gotten back close to 95,000 so far.” In the 1988 presidential election, 279,931 absentee ballots were returned for an all-time high.

In Orange County, 73,000 mail ballots were requested this year, while there were only 46,716 such requests in the 1988 primary election. In San Diego County there were 143,000 absentee ballot requests this year, up from 73,000 in the 1988 primary.

Times staff writer Richard Simon in Los Angeles contributed to this report.