Lawyer Makes Case, Bets 2-1 Favorites to Place

When Blue And Green lost its lead in the stretch to the long shot Miss Freezing and fell back to second in the second race at Hollywood Park last May 4, it was no catastrophe for “The Lawyer.”

Instead, the six-furlong race for 3-year-olds and up, fillies and mares, turned out to be The Lawyer’s first of six wins for the day. More important, it also turned out to be a day when The Lawyer hit every race he bet.

Although there was no win payoff on Blue And Green, The Lawyer was happy to take place money, despite its mutuel being only $2.60 for $2.

The Lawyer can be found in the Pavilion at Hollywood Park every afternoon, after taking care of his clients in the mornings. Naturally conservative, in dress and nature, he has devised a system that gives him the action he craves, a high percentage of winners and the opportunity to make frequent trips to the betting windows.

However, despite the many people he can discuss handicapping with, most consider him obnoxious, arrogant, opinionated and rigid and try to avoid encounters like the plague. And no matter how many drinks or lunches he may get from people he meets while waiting between races, The Lawyer has yet to reach for a check or remove his wallet from his pocket.

As a result, this kind of attitude is reflected in the system he bets, because what he really wants is to win every race, as unrealistic as it may seem, and to receive his drinks and lunches for nothing without ever retaliating in kind.

In any case, The Lawyer will tell anyone who will listen that he bets only favorites of 2-1 or less to place. Never to win. He theorizes that if about 33% of the favorites win, then place betting on such horses will give him twice as many wins and dramatically increase his chances of showing a profit.

Of course, even with the low payoffs, the bottom being $2.20 and the highest about a rare $4.40, The Lawyer is ready to sacrifice the shorter prices in order to increase his winning percentage.

For example, the third race and odds on May 4 were as follows:

1--Watch’N Win, $2.90

2--Babyitscoldoutside, 2.40

3--Racing Rascal, 1.90

4--J.R. Johnson, 5.10

5--Pirate’s Adventure, 6.10

Although his horse, Racing Rascal, won by 3 1/2 lengths, The Lawyer again was happy to win the place, which paid $3.40.

Erindrill, the fourth-race favorite, lost by a head to Sobresalir, but still managed to pay $3.80 to place, continuing the string of betting victories.

The Lawyer skipped the fifth when no horse qualified but scored again in the sixth as Blaze O’Brien, running seven furlongs for 3-year-old maidens and up, easily won by five lengths, presenting backers of the place system with a $3.80 mutuel.

Rash Decision, the favorite, gave The Lawyer a $3.40 mutuel in the seventh race and Yes I’m Blue, another favorite, took the eighth race, a six-furlong sprint for 4-year-olds and up, by 6 1/2 lengths. The place price for the lawyer’s sixth win of the day was $3. Since no horse qualified for the ninth race, as the favorite went off at $3.60 to $1, The Lawyer ignored the ninth race and quit betting.

For the day, The Lawyer ended up with an $8 profit on straight $2 betting, which could have been $400 if $100 had been bet each race.

Another good day for the system was on May 12, when The Lawyer again won every race he bet.

Dr. Brent, the favorite in the first race, a six-furlong sprint for 4-year-olds and up, pulled away in the stretch to win by two lengths. The place mutuel was $3.60. There was no bet in the second race, but The Lawyer won the third race, $2.60; the fourth, $2.60, and the fifth, 3.60.

After passing the sixth race because of no qualifying mount, The Lawyer won again in the seventh, which paid $3. He skipped the eighth race and cashed in a $3 place ticket on the ninth.

For the day, The Lawyer, on straight $2 betting, collected $18.40. After deducting the $12 in bets, he ended up with a profit of $6.40.

Of course, such betting, The Lawyer likes to expound, will never make anyone rich. However, as the system is designed, it won’t force anyone to leap from the nearest building or bridge either.

In fact, over the course of last season at Santa Anita, The Lawyer, for $2 bets, won $104.40 and lost $118.70, for a loss of $14.30 over the 90 days of racing. This kind of loss is really inconsequential, he says, because most bettors end up with huge deficits over a season.

The Lawyer won 60.8% of his qualifying races, collecting on 258 out of 424. What he believes is that with a few more place wins, he could easily have ended up winners for the season.

So far as Hollywood Park is progressing, he envisions a winning year. He likes to point out that during the current seasons’ first 14 days, there were 48 winners out of 74 qualifying races, for a 64.8% win percentage and a $2 profit on all betting.

What detractors of the system argue is that the low payoffs on the favorite to place creates a Catch-22 situation. On the one hand, bettors end up winning many races, but the payoffs are so low that they can’t make up for the losing races.

The Lawyer disagrees. He believes that in addition to straight bets, a money progression on his system is the way to riches, particularly when at least two or three favorites place almost every day. Last season at Santa Anita, he says, at least one favorite placed every day. None were ever shut out.

And another way to play the system, he says, is to parlay the betting, since two or three favorites in a row often come in at least second. However, with this sort of betting, after a string of three or four wins, the player should start over again with the original bet.

Of course, The Lawyer would be the first to advise bettors to look elsewhere for a system if they want to get rich. “It’s not the kind of betting that’s going to get you a Rolls-Royce or a Jaguar,” he says. “It’s more like getting out in the woods on a bike.”