THE TIMES POLL : Democratic Turnout Helped Pass Prop. 111

Republican Gov. George Deukmejian and California’s business establishment can thank Democratic voters--especially liberals--for passage of the costly, ambitious transportation plan they eagerly sought, the Los Angeles Times Poll found.

GOP voters rejected the measure, which will double the state gasoline tax and open the state treasury by raising the government spending limit.

The narrowly passed proposal, Proposition 111, clearly benefited from a hot Democratic gubernatorial primary that brought out liberal voters and created an electorate more sympathetic toward spending than would have been the case had there been a compelling GOP battle, the survey indicated. Democratic voters outnumbered Republicans on Tuesday by 5 to 4.

“Exit poll” interviews with people after they had cast ballots also found that the two GOP-backed reapportionment “reform” measures--Propositions 118 and 119--were rejected because Democratic voters got the message that the proposals were bad for their party. They voted against the measures by nearly 4 to 1.

Republicans seemed to be confused about the complex proposals and basically split their votes.

Other findings of the poll:

San Francisco Dist. Atty. Arlo Smith, who edged out Los Angeles County Dist. Atty. Ira Reiner for the Democratic attorney general nomination, was the big favorite of white voters, liberals and Northern Californians. He carried the Bay Area by 2 to 1. Reiner was strongly supported by blacks and Latinos and outpolled his rival in Los Angeles County. But he lost the rest of Southern California.

The women’s vote was the biggest factor in state Sen. Marian Bergeson’s capture of the Republican lieutenant governor nomination, as it was in Dianne Feinstein’s victory in the Democratic gubernatorial race. Sex also provided a major boost for Angela (Bay) Buchanan in her bid for the GOP treasurer nomination, although she lost to incumbent Thomas Hayes. Women sided with Bergeson by 5 to 3, while men basically split their votes between her and state Sen. John Seymour. Women voted for Buchanan narrowly, 8 to 7, and she lost because men voted bigger for Hayes, 4 to 3.

In the Democratic gubernatorial primary, 7% of the voters supported neither Feinstein nor John K. Van de Kamp and backed one of several minor candidates. This bloc of Democrats probably will be tempted to vote in November for the Republican nominee, Sen. Pete Wilson. The group was more conservative, younger and more heavily white than California Democrats as a whole.

These maverick Democrats told Times interviewers they voted for a minor candidate as “the lesser of evils,” believing that the major contenders were “too extreme” and “too liberal.”

They emphatically did not agree with other Democrats who said “it’s time we had a woman governor.” Only 9% had a favorable impression of Feinstein. They were less supportive of abortion rights than other voters and were especially concerned about ethics in government. And they voted overwhelmingly against the gas tax increase.

The Times Poll, directed by I. A. Lewis, interviewed 5,815 voters as they left 150 precincts, representing a cross-section of the state. Among those interviewed were 3,210 Democrats and 2,238 Republicans, plus 367 independents and members of minor parties. The margin of error was three percentage points in either direction.

Times interviewers found Tuesday’s electorate to be more heavily Anglo and less Latino than California’s overall population. The electorate was 83% Anglo, compared to 62% in the population, and 6% Latino, compared to 25% in the population. Blacks were more equally represented at the ballot box, comprising 9% of the voters compared to 7% of the population.

Blacks--86% of them Democrats--supported Proposition 111 more strongly than did other voters. Democrats generally accounted for the measure’s victory, supporting it by a margin of 12 percentage points, while Republicans were opposing it by four points.

Liberals supported the proposal by 26 points. Conservatives opposed it by eight.

Deukmejian had placed his political prestige on the line in pushing for passage of Proposition 111, which also carried the bipartisan support of Democratic leaders. On Wednesday, the governor indicated he did not believe its passage signaled the end of the national tax revolt that began with California’s passage of Proposition 13 a dozen years ago. “It took a tremendous effort to explain to the voters that this money would be used specifically for transportation--and for no other purpose,” Deukmejian told reporters.

Campaigning against the reapportionment measures, Democratic strategists mailed 8 million “alerts” to Democratic households in California urging “no” votes on Propositions 118 and 119. And on Election Day, four in five Democrats voted against the GOP-supported proposals, which would have substantially restricted the Democratic-controlled Legislature’s influence over the redrawing of congressional and legislative districts.

Just slightly over half the Republican voters supported the measures.

In the GOP primary races, voters who supported one woman candidate tended to also back another. For example, three-fourths of Buchanan’s voters supported Bergeson. And nearly two-thirds of Bergeson’s supporters voted for Buchanan. In all, 42% of Republican women voted for both Bergeson and Buchanan.

Even women who support abortion rights voted 3 to 2 for Bergeson, although she opposes abortion.

Regionally, Bergeson won about 3 to 2 in Southern California and lost 5 to 4 to Seymour in Northern California. In the treasurer’s race, Buchanan broke even with Hayes in the South and lost 3 to 2 in the North.

THE DEMOCRATIC VOTER

Profile of those who voted in Democratic governor’s race:

SOMEONE TOTAL FEINSTEIN VAN DE KAMP ELSE All Democrats 52% 41% 7% Political Ideology Liberal 44% 56% 40% 4% Middle-of-road 30% 52% 41% 7% Conservative 18% 42% 45% 13% Union Household I am 24% 52% 44% 4% Someone else 15% 49% 47% 4% No one 61% 52% 39% 9% Sex Male 53% 50% 43% 7% Female 47% 55% 39% 6% Age Younger 32% 53% 39% 8% Older 68% 52% 42% 6% Schooling Less than H.S. grad 8% 53% 38% 9% H.S. grad 23% 55% 39% 6% More than H.S grad 69% 51% 42% 7% Ethnic Background Latino 10% 44% 47% 9% Anglo 72% 51% 42% 7% Black 16% 63% 34% 3% Asian 1% 47% 47% 6% Religion Protestant 43% 50% 43% 7% Catholic 32% 50% 43% 7% Jewish 8% 62% 36% 2% Occupation Blue-collar 24% 51% 43% 6% White-collar 20% 54% 41% 5% Technical/professional 29% 52% 41% 7% Manager 9% 54% 39% 7% Income Less than $20,000 18% 54% 40% 6% $20,000 to $40,000 34% 47% 44% 9% More than $40,000 48% 54% 40% 6% California areas Los Angeles 37% 50% 44% 6% Rest of south 21% 51% 43% 6% Bay area 16% 62% 33% 5% Rest of north 26% 51% 40% 9%

SOURCE: Los Angeles Times Poll