The New Season: Searching for Key Strategies? Look to Thursdays, Saturdays for the Answers

It is television’s annual rite of passage. Just when you’ve had it with network TV, just when you’re mad as hell and won’t take it anymore, along come the Pied Pipers of ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox with their new, fall, prime-time schedules, expertly seducing viewers, sponsors, affiliate stations and stockholders with the promise that you ain’t seen nothin’ yet. It happens every spring.

But hold.

When the networks introduced their 1990-91 lineups in late May, a real sense of urgency was in the air, a knowledge that they had to do something different--gamble, in short--to prevent being nibbled to death by such new alternatives as pay-cable and VCRs, an oasis for increasingly discontented viewers.

New and vivid network breakthroughs--Fox’s animated sensation, “The Simpsons,” and ABC’s Gothic soap opera, “Twin Peaks”--had fortuitously emerged and created national excitement at the very moment they were needed, just as television programmers were trying to gauge the public mood before drafting their upcoming schedules.

Only a fool would expect the networks to be born-again. They are so mainstream--the last stop of original thought--that it’s been said that all good ideas come to television when they die.

Still, “The Simpsons,” with its sardonic view of family life, and “Twin Peaks,” with its determinedly perverse and outrageous look at a small town in the Pacific Northwest, were genuine originals.

And soon, they became not only the talk of the past season but harbingers of the network gambling this fall.

Fox, announcing its new lineup 12 days ago, dropped a bombshell by challenging NBC’s awesome hit, “The Cosby Show,” head-on with “The Simpsons” on Thursdays in the 1990-91 competition.

The move took on added drama this past week when “The Simpsons” roared into the Top 10 in the ratings for the first time, tieing for fourth place among all shows--and actually beating “The Cosby Show,” which tied for eighth.

ABC, meanwhile, threw out a major challenge of its own--pairing the Vietnam drama “China Beach” with “Twin Peaks” as a 9-11 p.m. Saturday tandem in a significant test of lifestyles, saying it didn’t swallow whole the common belief that young adult viewers at which the shows are aimed are either out on Saturdays or inseparable from their VCRs.

Besides renewing “Twin Peaks” and “China Beach,” both widely admired but borderline ratings performers, ABC Entertainment President Bob Iger announced another gamble--a weekly, one-hour, rock ‘n’ roll police drama set in Los Angeles. Entitled “Cop Rock,” it is the latest effort of Steven Bochco, the co-creator of “Hill Street Blues” and “L.A. Law.”

In recent years, ABC has been the main source of TV series that create talk the morning after, from “Moonlighting” to “thirtysomething” to “Twin Peaks.” And it is shooting for the same reaction with “Cop Rock.”

At NBC, Brandon Tartikoff, the president of the entertainment division, is also promising freshness--to “restore the image” of the front-running but recently conservative network that once spawned “Hill Street Blues,” “St. Elsewhere” and “Cheers.”

This is, of course, the selling season for networks--but the new show that Tartikoff points to repeatedly as a breakthrough in his fall lineup is Monday night’s “Fresh Prince of Bel Air,” a sitcom that stars pop rapper the Fresh Prince.

Tartikoff also promises a distinctive weekly hour in “Signs of Life,” a dramatic anthology that focuses on illnesses entirely from the patient’s point of view.

But there is no doubt that Tartikoff regards “Fresh Prince of Bel Air” as the show that will revive NBC as he tries to bring rap into the ultimate middle road of American life--prime-time television. Even competitors concede that the half-hour pilot--in which the Fresh Prince (real name: Wil Smith) moves from Philadelphia to the home of rich relatives in Bel Air--is outstanding.

CBS, last in the ratings, admittedly is taking the traditional route in the new season, with its new president of entertainment, Jeff Sagansky, arguing that solid, well-executed series are needed before the network can gamble. He is high on “WIOU,” a new one-hour drama from former NBC Chairman Grant Tinker about the news department at a fading TV station.

But Fox clearly stole everyone’s thunder by creating a “Simpsons”-”Cosby” showdown. Suddenly there was an X factor in the fall season.

As it happens, Thursdays, with “Cosby,” and Saturdays, with “The Golden Girls,” are the two nights that have held NBC together during its five consecutive years as ratings champion. And that’s exactly where “The Simpsons,” “China Beach” and “Twin Peaks” will challenge the status quo. The stakes are high.

How are the networks girding for battle on these two pivotal nights? What are the strategies? The demographics? The views from the executive suites?

THURSDAYS

Despite last week’s outranking of “The Cosby Show” by “The Simpsons,” it would be a miracle if the Fox cartoon beat the champ in next season’s head-to-head competition. Virtually no one really expects that to happen. Certainly not Tartikoff. Not Iger. Not Sagansky. Not his research chief, David Poltrack. Not Madison Avenue prognosticating wizard Paul Schulman. Not even Fox Chairman Barry Diller.

But all of these people think “The Simpsons” will take a piece of “Cosby.” The question is: How much?

“There’s been so much talk about what Fox’s intentions are,” says Diller, referring to his network’s surprise announcement that it is adding Thursday as a programming night despite NBC’s dominant presence with “Cosby,” “A Different World,” “Cheers” and “L.A. Law.”

But Diller says, “The reason we’ve programmed Thursday is that for many years it’s been a one-network economy (NBC’s). If we’re very lucky and do our work very well, we might be No. 2” against Cosby.

Saying Fox is realistic about NBC’s strength on Thursdays, Diller adds: “ ‘The Cosby Show’ is an American institution, and nobody here (at Fox) believes we’re going to beat it. We’re just trying to bring another network economy into the night. That’s our strategy--beginning, middle and end.” To be a “decent No. 2,” he says, would be “thrilling.”

It would also be profitable. Peter Chernin, president of Fox Entertainment Group, has said, “Our feeling is that if we could get past ‘Cosby’ and survive it, we have great opportunities at 8:30 and 9” with such shows as the new sitcom “Babes,” which follows “The Simpsons” and is about three hefty sisters living in a cramped apartment in New York.

There are other potential profits. Thursday is a big night for movie companies advertising their films on TV to attract young audiences to motion pictures during the weekend ahead. And the film companies obviously want good launching pads for their commercials. Fox’s programming for its basic audience, which is heavily on the young side, is ideal for these ads--and it could be particularly ideal for Fox’s film division.

But Sagansky says flatly that he thinks Fox made a mistake in throwing “The Simpsons” against Cosby. “I think they moved ‘The Simpsons’ too early (from its current Sunday slot), and I don’t think they’ll get the same kind of ratings they’ve gotten. To me, it doesn’t make sense,” he adds, arguing that the switch could hurt Fox’s burgeoning Sunday lineup built around “The Simpsons,” “Married . . . With Children” and “In Living Color.”

There are, of course, other shows besides “Cosby” and “The Simpsons” in the key 8 to 9 p.m. leadoff period Thursday--ABC’s “Father Dowling Mysteries” and CBS’ new one-hour action entry, “The Flash,” based on the comic strip.

“Father Dowling Mysteries,” whose main audience is 50 years old and up, gets a modest but respectable tune-in and probably won’t be hurt by “The Simpsons,” which attracts only a minuscule number of viewers over 55.

Iger, Tartikoff and even CBS’ Poltrack think that “The Flash” might be the prime victim of the move of “The Simpsons” to Thursday because both shows are competing for the youngsters in the audience.

“Our initial strategy,” says Poltrack, “was the same as Fox’s. We felt we saw some vulnerability beginning to creep into the ‘Cosby’ numbers in terms of kids and the 18-to-34 market. And that’s why we positioned ‘The Flash’ in that period. Of course, at the time, we did not expect Fox to put in ‘The Simpsons.’ So you now have three products competing for the young audience at 8, and I would label our entry the long-shot.”

Poltrack does think “The Flash” could get sampling at 8:30 because both “A Different World” and “Babes” are female-oriented and “The Flash” has young male appeal.

But Schulman projects “The Flash” as a heavy loser. And Iger says, “ ‘The Simpsons’ could cause CBS to move ‘The Flash.’ ” According to Sagansky, there are “no plans” at present to make such a move. However, Tartikoff says, “If ‘The Simpsons’ was an attempt to confront ‘Cosby,’ the one thing it does is put a dagger in the heart of ‘The Flash.’ You’re taking a kid-teen show, and now it’s standing third in line behind ‘The Cosby Show’ and ‘The Simpsons.’ ”

Wait a minute, says Poltrack. “The Flash,” he says, can still be a good marketing product for CBS because, like “The Simpsons,” it’s also attractive to movie companies advertising their films: “We also have the least to lose. Because of trendiness and the youth orientation, ‘The Simpsons’ could turn sour very quickly.”

The easy-come, easy-go nature of youth-oriented shows is not lost on Tartikoff, either. He concedes that there’ll be some inroads by “The Simpsons” against “Cosby,” saying: “Whatever it is, it’s not gonna be good. It comes down to just how much it affects us.”

But, says Tartikoff, “We don’t know how deep the audience fascination is with these characters from ‘The Simpsons.’ Every time I see one of their T-shirts, I get a twinge of pain in my temple. But I don’t know whether their meteor-like rise is going to be sustaining.

“Kids and teens are probably more attached to it than adults. I think adults will be the first to leave. That’s generally the pattern with shows like this and ‘Alf’ and ‘Mork & Mindy,’ which ‘The Simpsons’ reminded me of when it leaped into the public consciousness.”

Tartikoff is correct about the primary audience of “The Simpsons,” and you can bet he wasn’t just guessing. “The Simpsons” attracts 45% of boys in the audience between 12 and 17, 38% of girls the same age and 40% of younger children. On the other hand, the audience between 18 and 34 is 30%-plus for both men and women and goes down slightly for viewers 18 to 49.

At the BBDO ad agency in New York, a source also predicts that “The Simpsons” will “certainly cut into ‘Cosby.’ ” But Poltrack seems to have sensed what the comedian will probably do to hold off the animated hit. Says Poltrack: “Bill Cosby is a great competitor, and I’m sure you’ll see the program infused with guest talents that will directly challenge ‘The Simpsons’ for the young audience.”

Dead right, says Tartikoff: “Cosby is one of the great competitors of all time. I believe there are new characters to be tested and added to the show. It’s already in the works. Cosby wants to leave this show as a winner.”

As the BBDO source suggests, Cosby probably has also not forgotten how, as an underdog himself, he pulled a startling upset over CBS’ favored “Magnum, P.I.” and its hugely popular star, Tom Selleck, not long after launching his sitcom in 1984.

In other Thursday-night competition, the incredibly durable “Cheers”--which seems to grow in popularity, finished No. 1 again last week and has a wide demographic appeal--almost certainly will hold the fort for NBC at 9 p.m.

ABC’s competing new drama, “Gabriel’s Fire,” with James Earl Jones as an ex-convict-turned-investigator, has gotten excellent word-of-mouth. CBS’ new hour, “The Hammersmiths,” about a family in the Pacific Northwest--and starring Lucie Arnaz--is intended as a companion piece for “Knots Landing,” which follows. And Fox also has a new hour, “Class of Beverly Hills,” about a Midwestern family that moves out here.

These new series may score some points, but you can figure “Cheers” by its usual knockout.

All this said, we now take you to an impartial TV source, Schulman, who already knows how everything will come out next fall. Schulman, whose company is a subsidiary of Advanswers, which plans and purchases ads, has projected all the results--right down to percentages of the audiences for each series from October through December. And here are his predictions:

Sure enough, he says, “NBC will continue to win Thursday but will win by less as a result of ‘The Simpsons’ and ‘Babes’ coming into the picture.” During the 8 to 9 p.m. competition, Cosby will attract 32% of the viewers, “The Simpsons” 18%, “The Flash” 10%, “Babes” 15%, “Father Dowling Mysteries” 16% and “A Different World” 29%.

In the 9 to 10 p.m. square-offs, “Cheers” will get 33% of the audience, “Grand” 25%, “Gabriel’s Fire” 18%, “The Hammersmiths” 12% and “Class of Beverly Hills” 8%. From 10 to 11 p.m., “L.A. Law” will continue to dominate with 31%, “Knots Landing” remains strong with 24% and “PrimeTime Live” gets 16%.

Now you know.

SATURDAYS

It’s a new world in Saturday-night TV-watching since the arrival of VCRs. And, ABC notwithstanding, popular belief holds that the young audience that dominates VCR use is generally out for that night. But is that true or false? Are more young adults really at home than is generally believed?

And if home, is there any doubt that it now is difficult to lure them away from watching films on their VCRs?

When fall’s new TV lineups roll around, ABC’s 9-11 p.m. tandem of “China Beach” and “Twin Peaks” may give a clue.

Although competitor Tartikoff scoffs at ABC’s plan to intercept these VCR users, the fact is that he has touted his own Saturday leadoff series, the new Ed Begley Jr. sitcom “Parenthood,” as reflecting young adults who indeed are staying home because they now have families.

So who’s right? Tartikoff will surely win over “China Beach” with “The Golden Girls” and “Empty Nest.” And he’s also a ratings favorite to defeat “Twin Peaks” with Carol Burnett’s “Carol & Company” and “American Dreamer,” a new sitcom with Robert Urich as a newspaper columnist.

But although the odds are against ABC winning a huge audience with “China Beach” and “Twin Peaks,” ABC is hoping to make inroads with younger viewers against Tartikoff’s older, female-oriented Saturday lineup.

“We do have a precedent for a lifestyle change with VCRs, and that was ‘Miami Vice,’ ” says analyst Larry Gerbrandt of Paul Kagan Associates, a media-watching firm. “During its heyday, people often changed their plans to stay home and watch it, or tape it and watch.”

And ABC’s Iger says, “We’ve developed a Saturday-night strategy. We’re convinced there’s a big audience that is home on Saturday night that is watching videocassettes--and is not watching networks because we haven’t given them enough to watch.”

“Lifestyle does enter the picture here,” acknowledges Tartikoff, but he doesn’t think the young adult audience is there late on Saturdays and that ABC’s gamble is doomed.

Well, here’s Schulman with his crystal ball again: “China Beach” will get 17% of the audience, “Twin Peaks” 16%, “The Golden Girls” 33%, “Empty Nest” 33%, “Carol & Company” 28% and “American Dreamer” 22%.

But while attention will be focused on such rival series as “China Beach” and “The Golden Girls,” a good deal else will be happening in Saturday’s competition that may affect the outcome of the pivotal night.

CBS, for instance, has moved Dan Rather’s “48 Hours” into the 10-11 p.m. slot opposite “Twin Peaks,” “Carol & Company” and “American Dreamer.” The Rather series did reasonably well against “The Cosby Show” on Thursday, and Sagansky thinks this is an easier time period.

“We think ’48 Hours’ is the male alternative, especially with viewers 35-plus,” says Poltrack. “It’s grittier than ‘Saturday Night with Connie Chung,’ ” which formerly was in the slot, he says. “Also, with the news format, people coming home or switching over from their VCRs can join the program in progress.”

Nice thinking, nice logic, but Schulman projects only a 15% share of the audience for “48 Hours” on Saturdays, where it’s being moved because Chung has won a better time period--following “Murphy Brown” and “Designing Women” on Mondays.

Sagansky does think, however, that CBS has a real chance to make inroads early on Saturdays with two new, youth-oriented sitcoms between 8 and 9 p.m.--”Four Alarm Family,” which stars Gregory Harrison as a father who is captain of the local firehouse, and “The Hogan Family,” which moved over from NBC.

The competition to these shows on NBC is two new, apparently older-skewing comedies--”Parenthood,” based on the film and starring Begley, and “Working It Out,” with Jane Curtin as a divorced woman involved in a new relationship. ABC, meanwhile, has the Western “The Young Riders” in the same time slot, and Sagansky says:

“When ABC went in with ‘The Young Riders’ and NBC with two older comedies, they left it wide open for us to go in with two young family comedies. You rarely get an opportunity to go in free and clear. They let us march right in.”

All well and good, and maybe there’ll be a weakening of the lead-in to NBC’s stronghold of “The Golden Girls” and “Empty Nest” if CBS’ entries succeed.

Ah, but here’s Schulman again with his crystal ball. While “Parenthood” gets only 22% of the audience--partly, he says, because Begley “isn’t funny”--”Working It Out” goes up to 24%, thanks to a strong performance by Curtin. On the other hand, “Four Alarm Family” gets a 15% audience share and “The Hogan Family” 17%. ABC’s “The Young Riders” also gets 15%.

Which, if true, means that “The Golden Girls” and “Empty Nest” are in no danger, and neither is NBC. Only a surprisingly strong performance from CBS’ new 9-10 p.m. action series, “The Green Machine”--about a team of experts who combat “threats to the world’s ecological balance”--might change things.

Not likely, says Schulman, who gives it 11% of the audience.

But what about that whole hour of videos that Fox is throwing against all the 8-9 p.m shows. It’s called “Fox Video Hour,” and Tartikoff says: “I was glad to see that videos thing. Between ABC and Fox, they’ll kill this entire genre of programming by the end of the year. We will have seen the 95th permutation of kids getting hit on the head by a yo-yo.”

Schulman gives the “Fox Video Hour” 13% of the audience. Assessing two other Fox “reality” series that follow between 9 and 10 p.m., he gives “Cops” 11% and the new “American Chronicles” 8%.

Once upon a time, of course, there was CBS’ great Saturday lineup of “All in the Family,” Mary Tyler Moore, Bob Newhart and Carol Burnett--and it didn’t matter if you were young or old, you had to stay home if you wanted to watch because there were no VCRs.

But now it’s the 1990s, and Iger is gambling on the crucial Saturday VCR audience to keep “China Beach” and “Twin Peaks” alive. And he rejects speculation that he has given those shows possible death slots against NBC’s strong lineup so that he can ease them off the schedule: “I am a firm supporter of ‘Twin Peaks.’ And ‘China Beach’ was a show that I could not kill.”

Tartikoff is blunt. Sure, he says, he’s “glad that ‘Twin Peaks’ is on TV.” But, he adds, “You can believe one of two things” about the “China Beach”-”Twin Peaks” pairing:

“One, there was sincere belief that you can change the lifestyles of viewers. It’s the ‘Field of Dreams’ thing--if you put it on, they will come. The other theory is that it’s a dumping ground because they (ABC) are afraid of being blasted if the shows are canceled, and they don’t want to lose their ‘darling’ status with you guys (TV writers). So they put the shows out in right field.”

Well, at least that means they’re still in the ball game.

Field of dreams.

But isn’t that what new TV schedules are all about?

THURSDAY NETWORK PRIME-TIME FALL LINEUP NETWORK: 8-8:30 NBC: Cosby Show Fox: The Simpsons NETWORK: 8:30-9 NBC: Different World Fox: Babes NETWORK: 8-9 ABC: Father Dowling Mysteries CBS: The Flash NETWORK: 9-9:30 NBC: Cheers NETWORK: 9:30-10 NBC: Grand NETWORK: 9-10 ABC: Gabriel’s Fire CBS: Hammershiths Fox: Class of Beverly Hills NETWORK: 10-11 ABC: Prime Time Live CBS: Knots Landing NBC: LA Law SATURDAY NETWORK PRIME-TIME FALL LINEUP NETWORK: 8-8:30 CBS: 4 Alarm Family NBC: Parenthood NETWORK: 8:30-9 CBS: Hogan FamilyNBC: Working It Out NETWORK: 8-9 ABC: Young Riders FOX: Fox Video Hour NETWORK: 9-9:30 NETWORK: 9:30-10 NBC: Emmpty Nest FOX: American Chronicles NETWORK: 9-10 ABC: China Beach CBS: Green Machine NETWORK: 10-10:30 NBC: Carol & Company NETWORK: 10:30-11 NBC: American Dreamer NETWORK: 10-11 ABC: Twin Peaks CBS: 48 Hours