U.S. Sees Year’s Warning of Potential Soviet Attack

U.S. military planners have concluded that the West will have one to two years’ warning of a potential Soviet attack after Soviet troops complete their expected withdrawal from Eastern Europe.

U.S. officials said Wednesday that the Pentagon has embarked upon a broad re-examination of U.S. defense posture in light of the dramatically lengthened lead time. The policy review is also being driven by budgetary pressures, which are forcing military leaders to seek cheaper ways to maintain American forces in the United States and abroad.

The new estimate of as much as two years to prepare contrasts with so-called “planning factors” of as little as 14 days that were accepted by North Atlantic Treaty Organization defense ministers as recently as 18 months ago.

The revolutions in Eastern Europe, new Soviet defense policies and an economic crisis in the Soviet Union have led to a rapid withdrawal of Soviet troops from the nations of the once-monolithic Warsaw Pact. It is expected that virtually all Soviet troops will have left Eastern Europe by the mid-1990s.

Among the ideas being considered by the Administration as a response to the changed circumstances in Europe is an Army concept known as “cadre divisions,” which are essentially hollow reserve units staffed in peacetime with only a small corps of officers and senior noncommissioned officers.

In the event of a mobilization to respond to increased tensions, the units could be filled with enlistees or draftees.

A senior Army official who described the scheme said it would take roughly a year to bring such a division to full fighting trim.

“It’s cheaper than maintaining a full active (duty) division, and we may have the luxury of time” to field such divisions in a less threatening world, the officer said.

A senior Pentagon official said that the plan had been briefed to the President several times since February, but it has not been presented for his final approval.

“Nothing’s been decided,” said the official, who requested anonymity.

“It’s an option,” said another knowledgeable Pentagon official of the plan to create more reserve units. “There’s nothing in concrete at this point. It is not a finished product.”

The President was expected to include the broad outlines of the Pentagon proposals in a speech he was scheduled to make today in Aspen, Colo.

White House spokesman Roman Popadiuk acknowledged that while “frictions that have existed among states seem to be decreasing,” Bush, in his speech, “would also note that there is considerable responsibility on the part of the United States for maintaining its global presence in various regions of the world.”

The Pentagon is planning to cut 500,000 troops from the current 2 million over the next five years, shift large numbers of forces from active to reserve status, reduce purchases of aircraft and ships used to ferry troops to Europe and bring substantial numbers of overseas based troops home, officials said.

Staff writer Melissa Healy also contributed to this story.