Bush Avoids Threats, Presses Iraq Sanctions

President Bush, advised by national security aides that Iraq did not appear to be bent on an immediate invasion of Saudi Arabia, pressed diplomatic and economic sanctions against the Saddam Hussein regime Saturday while avoiding threats of military action.

Informed sources said that although Bush and his aides concluded that Iraq neither wants nor needs to invade Saudi Arabia at this time, the Administration is aware of troop movements within Iraq that would increase that nation’s ability to launch a successful attack if it chooses that course.

And a senior government official, who asked not to be identified, again stressed Hussein’s unpredictability, noting, “It’s difficult to put yourself in his shoes and decide what he might do--and none of us believes invading Kuwait would be his end goal.”

U.S. actions at this time appear designed to isolate Hussein politically and economically while defusing the tense situation by playing down prospects for a military confrontation.

The White House, after a meeting of Bush and his national security advisers at the Camp David, Md., presidential retreat, issued a low-key statement saying that all options are “under consideration” and that the United States still seeks the immediate withdrawal of Iraqi troops from Kuwait and “restoration of the legitimate government of Kuwait.”

Defense Department officials, playing down the prospects of a military confrontation, said that any American forces assigned to the Persian Gulf will not include U.S. rapid deployment forces and that no U.S. bombers or tactical warplanes are preparing for deployment in Saudi Arabia.

At the same time, sources close to the Saudi government said, in the event of an Iraqi invasion, the Saudis would request U.S. military assistance only as a last resort--and only then with great reluctance--and would much prefer to meet any Iraqi threat with assistance from other Arab countries.

U.S. intelligence officials, briefing senators Saturday on Capitol Hill, also stressed that reports of 20 Americans being seized by Iraqi forces from a vessel docked in Kuwait were apparently untrue. Officials confirmed Baghdad reports that 11 American oil field workers swept up in Kuwait by the invasion force have been released in Baghdad. Three others have not been accounted for.

At a press conference in Washington, Iraqi Ambassador Mohammed al Mashat denied that Iraq has “any designs” on Saudi Arabia and insisted that the two countries have excellent relations.

The ambassador said that Iraq plans to start withdrawing its invasion force of 100,000 troops from Kuwait. But in what was an otherwise moderate statement, he warned that Iraq would deal “thoroughly” with any aggression or threats to its national security and said such acts would end the troop pullout.

U.S. officials discounted the withdrawal promise and appeared to be increasingly pessimistic about Hussein’s forces being dislodged in the near future.

One senior U.S. official suggested that other Arab countries may decide to acquiesce in the forming of a new puppet regime in Kuwait by Iraq.

“If the other Arab countries decide they don’t want a confrontation with Saddam, the forming of a provisional government gives them a fig leaf,” the official said.

Said one Defense Department official about Iraq’s neighboring nations, “I wouldn’t put a plugged nickel on the Arabs getting their act together on this thing.”

Whatever Hussein does next, U.S. officials believe he will make no major move at least until after the weekend. “I think we’ll just see a weekend of people talking with each other,” a senior government official said.

A White House official said that Washington will focus its efforts on “economic sanctions, trying to keep people from buying Iraqi oil, trying to keep people from selling arms to them, trying to isolate Iraq.”

The 12-nation European Community imposed an embargo on oil imports from Iraq and Kuwait Saturday, froze all Kuwaiti assets and imposed a ban on sales to Iraq. The action, described as the strongest punitive measures ever taken by the EC, was aimed at pressuring Iraq to immediately withdraw its forces from Kuwait.

Bush, who has been telephoning the leaders of other countries urging them to join in the sanctions, spoke Friday night with West German Chancellor Helmut Kohl, French President Francois Mitterrand and Japanese Prime Minister Toshiki Kaifu.

Ever since Iraq invaded Kuwait on Thursday, U.S. officials have been guarded about possible military intervention, although they have emphasized that all options are under consideration. The beefing up of U.S. naval forces in the Persian Gulf region is about the only break from routine military exercises, U.S. officials said.

None of the senators who attended Saturday’s briefings with intelligence officials would discuss specific options being weighed in the event of an Iraqi attack on Saudi Arabia. But several members of Congress have said that U.S. military intervention would be inevitable if an invasion occurs.

Sen. Claiborne Pell (D-R.I.), chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, suggested possible retaliation by shutting down two pipelines through which Iraq exports most of its crude oil to the outside world. One of the pipelines crosses Saudi Arabia, and some U.S. analysts fear that Iraq may invade Saudi Arabia in part to make that facility secure.

Sen. Alan Cranston (D-Calif.) said that Iraqi intentions toward Saudi Arabia are “totally unclear” at this point, but he and other senators who attended the intelligence briefing agreed that the Iraqis pose a “serious” military threat to the Saudis.

“The Iraqis have seven divisions and about 2,000 tanks in Kuwait, which is more than enough to take Saudi Arabia . . . and their closest units are within five miles of the border,” said Sen. Kent Conrad (D-N.C.).

Most senators said that if Bush were to order a military attack, it probably would be restricted to naval and air actions and would not involve U.S. ground troops. The action would have to be ordered in concert with other countries, they said.

“I see no possibility of American troops being sent to (Saudi) soil, but there are other military options we could undertake in concert with other nations,” Cranston said.

On Saturday, American naval forces steamed toward the Persian Gulf, but U.S. ground and air forces continued their normal routines, sources said.

Even though Washington issued no alerts to U.S. Army or Air Force troops in the field, Pentagon war planners worked feverishly to complete contingency plans in case Iraqi troops move into Saudi Arabia.

Those plans would apparently involve the XVIII Airborne Corps, the nation’s most rapidly deployable force of Army troops. That force of over 85,000 troops, fortified by tank units from more heavily armed U.S. divisions, could begin arriving in the region within a week and could be at full strength in a little over three weeks, Pentagon officials said.

Pentagon officials emphasized, however, that without an invitation from Saudi Arabia, no American forces could hope to arrive on the scene quickly enough either to deter an Iraqi thrust or thwart one if it was under way.

“People are waiting for the other shoe to drop overseas,” one knowledgeable Pentagon source said. “Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates--those people basically have to make the first move. But, obviously, there’s a point after which it’s too late.”

Another Pentagon official said, “The first, absolute requirement is that the Saudis have to want us. If the Saudis don’t say, ‘Come,’ and Saddam’s troops cross the border,” the Iraqis will make tremendous advances before the Americans can get there.

With U.S. officials delicately pressing that point on a reluctant Saudi Arabia, the Pentagon took the only steps it could by moving naval forces to the region.

On Saturday, the Independence Battle Group, a total of eight ships and 75 aircraft, was fast approaching the Arabian Sea, where it was expected to position itself at the mouth of the Persian Gulf. Already an armada of eight U.S. ships, including a destroyer, a cruiser and five frigates, was plying the waters inside the Persian Gulf.

The aircraft carrier Eisenhower, with seven escort ships, was in the eastern Mediterranean. From its current position, the carrier’s aircraft could reach parts of Saudi Arabia, or the carrier could transit the Suez Canal into the Red Sea. In Mayport, Fla., the carrier Saratoga, with the battleship Wisconsin and nine other ships as well as an amphibious assault force of 2,000 Marines, prepared for deployment to the Mediterranean early this week.

Meanwhile, equipment and supplies to support a Marine expeditionary brigade of 16,500 men for 30 days was headed toward the Persian Gulf.

Times staff writers Melissa Healy, Michael Ross and Robin Wright contributed to this story.

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