P.M. BRIEFING : Economic Growth Estimate Cut

HONG KONG — The government today cut its estimate of economic growth for the year and said conditions could deteriorate further, adding that poorer trends were in place even before the Persian Gulf crisis.

The forecast for gross domestic product growth was reduced to 2.5% from 3%, while inflation estimates rose to 9.5% from 8.5%. A government official who briefed reporters on the new data said the economic situation will further deteriorate if importers cancel orders on the books of local manufacturers or the price of oil stays above $25 to $26 a barrel, the benchmark for the projections.

The government’s forecast is generally more optimistic than that of private economists, who have been revising figures in the wake of Iraq’s Aug. 2 invasion of Kuwait.