THE TIMES POLL : Legislative Term Limits Backed by Big Margin

The California electorate is in a mood to join Oklahoma in imposing term limits on state legislators in a broad-based revolt against failures in Sacramento, The Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

Voters are angry at the Legislature as an institution rather than its individual members, the survey indicated. When it comes to the lawmakers in the citizens’ districts, there seems to be no great fervor to “throw the rascals out.”

“It is a revolt against incumbency, not against incumbents,” observed Times political analyst William Schneider.

Whatever the motivation, California voters are moving toward following the lead of Oklahoma, which on Sept. 18 became the first state to impose term limits on legislators. Colorado also has a term-limit proposal on its ballot Nov. 6.

Americans traditionally have been more critical of legislative institutions, such as Congress, than they have of their local representatives. What is different this year is that Californians, and voters in a couple of other states, have an opportunity to strike out against the institution while still voting for its members.

Voters in this state will have two term-limit initiatives to consider. Either one would dramatically change the political system in Sacramento. Right now, both are favored by comfortable margins, The Times Poll found.

Proposition 131, sponsored by state Atty. Gen. John K. Van de Kamp, would limit legislators to 12 consecutive years in office and impose limits of two four-year terms on most statewide elective offices, such as governor. The measure would do much more: It would permit candidates for state office to help finance their campaigns with tax money if they adhered to spending limits. It also would impose some ethics rules by limiting gifts and honorariums.

The Times Poll found voters to be supporting Proposition 131 by 50% to 34%, with 16% undecided.

Proposition 140, sponsored by Los Angeles County Supervisor Pete Schabarum, would impose tighter term limits--six years total in the Assembly and four in the Senate. The governor and other elected statewide officials could serve two four-year terms. The measure would also eliminate the Legislature’s pension system and cut back substantially on legislative expenses.

Voters like Schabarum’s initiative even more than Van de Kamp’s. Proposition 140 was favored by nearly 2 to 1 in the survey--55% to 28% with 17% undecided.

Both term-limit measures similarly were leading by big margins in a Times poll last month. Both have added slightly to their support since then.

Voters also were asked their opinions of Proposition 128, the sweeping environmental protection proposal called “Big Green” by its sponsors and denounced as “the Hayden initiative” by its opponents. People were split virtually down the middle on the measure, exactly as they were a month ago: 44% in favor, 42% opposed and 14% undecided.

The Times Poll conducted telephone interviews with 1,892 registered voters for a six-day period ending last Tuesday night. The margin of error for this size poll is 3 percentage points in either direction. Susan Pinkus, assistant Times Poll director, supervised the survey.

Californians on Nov. 6 will be asked to consider 28 ballot measures, including a modern-record 13 initiatives. Voters told The Times Poll this is a bit much. Three-fourths of those surveyed agreed with the statement: “There are so many initiatives on the ballot with so many involved issues that an average voter cannot make an intelligent choice.”

The main cause of this ballot overload, they said, is that “the Legislature has failed to do its job of making the laws.” The No. 2 culprit, voters contended, is that “special interests use initiatives to get around the Legislature.”

Californians have a very low opinion of the Legislature as a whole. Asked to rate its job performance, the voters’ reply was 2 to 1 negative: 24% approval, 48% disapproval and 28% not sure. Naturally, people who disapprove of the Legislature are the most likely to support the term-limit initiatives.

Voters also have an unfavorable impression of Assembly Speaker Willie Brown (D-San Francisco), the Legislature’s most powerful and best-known member. But their opinion of him is less negative than of the Legislature overall. It is 31% favorable, 39% unfavorable and 30% not sure.

In many ways, Speaker Brown symbolizes the Legislature as an institution. It is the institution that voters are especially angry at, not with individual members.

When voters were asked whether their local Assembly member “deserves to be reelected or not,” the answer was 46% yes, 17% no and 37% not sure.

“The Legislature is in trouble. Incumbents are not,” Schneider said.

Support for the term-limit measures spans the entire political spectrum--Democrats as well as Republicans, liberals as well as conservatives.

But Big Green--Proposition 128--provokes sharp divisions. Democrats favor the environmental protection measure by 2 to 1. Republicans oppose it by more than 2 to 1. Independents support it, but by a smaller margin than Democrats.

There also is a significant gender gap involving Big Green. Men oppose it by 10 points; women support it by 11 points.

Younger people tend to support it. People middle-aged and up oppose it.

It is most popular in the state’s two largest urban areas--Los Angeles County and the Bay Area. The rest of Southern California tends to oppose it. Voters in the Central Valley farm belt are split.

The negative public image of Big Green’s controversial chairman, Assemblyman Tom Hayden (D-Santa Monica), continues to hurt the proposal, interviews showed. The voters’ impression of Hayden is only 27% favorable, against 43% unfavorable and 30% not sure. When people who dislike Hayden hear that he is pushing Big Green, their opposition to the measure doubles.

Opponents of Big Green point out that the liberal assemblyman has his eye on running for the new state office of environmental advocate that the initiative he co-authored would create. Voters, by 2 to 1, said establishing this office would be “just creating another layer of government and little will get accomplished.” They rejected the notion that the new post would “help a lot to clean up the environment.”

A key element of the supporters’ strategy is to inform voters that chemical companies are among the measure’s chief opponents. This knowledge made virtually no difference to voters surveyed by The Times. Half were told that chemical interests were trying to defeat the measure and half were not. Both groups voted about the same way.

What did seem to make a difference was a voter’s assessment of California’s “quality of life.” People who believed it had stayed the same or improved in the last decade tended to oppose Big Green. Those who thought the state’s quality of life had declined--and they represented nearly 6 in 10 of those surveyed--tended to favor the measure.

Basically, the complex initiative seeks to solve several environmental problems. Among other things, it would ban cancer-causing chemicals in food, save old-growth redwoods, tax oil companies to pay for potential oil spills and reduce gases that contribute to global warming and depletion of the ozone layer.

VOTER PREFERENCES Following are results from a Los Angeles Times Poll of 1,892 registered voters, including Democrats, Republicans, Independents and others . If the election were held today, how would you vote on the following propositions?

Prop. 128--Environment

MEASURE DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS ALL VOTERS Voting for 57% 25% 44% Voting against 29% 59% 42%

Prop. 131--Limits on terms

MEASURE DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS ALL VOTERS Voting for 50% 51% 50% Voting against 32% 34% 34%

Prop. 140--Limits on terms

MEASURE DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS ALL VOTERS Voting for 52% 60% 55% Voting against 29% 25% 28%

How is the state Legislature handling its job?

DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS ALL VOTERS Approve 25% 23% 24% Disapprove 45% 53% 48%

Does your state assemblyman or assemblywoman deserve to be reelected, or not?

DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS ALL VOTERS Deserves 47% 45% 46% Doesn’t deserve 17% 17% 17%

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll