WASHINGTON INSIGHT

WAR PLANS: The Bush Administration, growing more and more pessimistic about prospects for a peaceful settlement in the Middle East, has stepped up its efforts to lay the groundwork for using force against Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.

Secretary of State James A. Baker III aggressively buttonholes diplomats to ask how their governments would vote on a possible United Nations resolution authorizing the start of military action if the current economic sanctions don’t produce results soon. Also on his mind: Would they come to the defense of Israel if that country were attacked in any Mideast flare-up?

So far, the reactions generally have been positive, and the Administration is busily preparing for its next step--pushing through a resolution in the United Nations Security Council that would authorize multinational military action if Saddam Hussein doesn’t get out of Kuwait soon.

Still, planners here caution that the White House isn’t rushing into war. President Bush reportedly wants to allow all would-be peacemakers reasonable time to try friendly persuasion--and for the United States to get its forces into place--before deciding whether to unleash allied bombers and missiles.

HOUSE RACE: Part of the split in Congress during last week’s House debate on the bipartisan budget accord stemmed from politics of a different sort--the jockeying over who will be the next House Republican leader in 1992 after current Minority Leader Robert H. Michel (D-Ill.) retires.

Partly to help stake out a clear philosophical position, each of the three major candidates--Reps. Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.), Henry J. Hyde (R-Ill.) and Jerry Lewis (R-Highland)--took a different position on the budget accord: Lewis supported President Bush, Gingrich bolted from the Administration and Hyde straddled the fence.

But Congress-watchers say the outcome was inconclusive. Gingrich won the day on the floor, where lawmakers defeated the budget resolution, but he lost a friend at the White House, where Bush reportedly is incensed over the Georgia lawmaker’s audacity. The White House is expected to try to undermine Gingrich’s bid in any way it can.

POINTING FINGERS: Tempers bristle between the State Department and the White House National Security Council over who is to blame for not having made it clear enough to Iraqi President Saddam Hussein earlier this year that the United States would react strongly if his forces invaded Kuwait. Baker’s supporters plead that the secretary of state was too busy worrying about Eastern Europe even to take notice of Hussein’s early blustering. State Department loyalists argue that NSC should have been more alert itself. The two often have clashed historically.

FISCAL CASUALTIES?: Last week’s failure of the bipartisan budget agreement has raised speculation that President Bush may dump one of its major architects--possibly Budget Director Richard G. Darman or Treasury Secretary Nicholas F. Brady. Darman and White House Chief of Staff John H. Sununu triggered a backlash in Congress, where members apparently resented their ruthless tactics. Brady is increasingly being blamed for mishandling of the savings and loan debacle. But insiders say that any change--if it comes--wouldn’t occur until after the elections.