THE TIMES POLL : Capitol Return Helped Wilson, Hurt Feinstein

In an extremely tight, basically even race where every move is crucial, Sen. Pete Wilson appears to have taken the right step in leaving the campaign trail and returning to the nation’s capital, The Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

But Democrat Dianne Feinstein, after goading Wilson onto an airplane headed for Washington, appears to have made the wrong move by continuing to campaign in seeming violation of an earlier pledge, interviews showed.

These chessboard stratagems matter only to a quarter of the electorate, the survey found. However, this is a gubernatorial contest where the ultimate margin of victory could be tiny, so any little bloc of votes is critical.

Actually, the vast majority of voters seem to be choosing sides based on their perceptions of where the candidates stand on major policy questions, despite frequent critical characterizations of Wilson and Feinstein as tweedledum and tweedledee on the issues.

The poll also found that Wilson may have gained a slight upper hand in the war of TV commercials, with indications he has gotten more from his ads than Feinstein has from hers.

With less than two weeks remaining before the election, the race is still a virtual tie: Wilson 45%, Feinstein 42%, “somebody else” 1% and undecided 12%. The three-point spread tends to be statistically insignificant, given a margin of error of three percentage points in either direction.

By contrast, a Times Poll survey a week earlier had Wilson up by one percentage point. A late-September poll saw Feinstein up by two points. The candidates were dead even in August.

In the new survey, The Times Poll interviewed 1,941 registered voters by telephone for six days ending Wednesday night. The phone numbers called were randomly selected to represent a cross-section of the California electorate. The survey was supervised by Susan Pinkus, assistant Times Poll director.

In San Diego County, the count was significantly different. Wilson was favored by 56% of the 222 registered voters polled, Feinstein by 29%. Three percent favored someone else and 12% didn’t know. The margin of error for the San Diego sample is 9 points in either direction.

Playing by computer with various hypothetical voter turnouts did not significantly alter the standings of the gubernatorial candidates, Times analysts found. This ran counter to conventional wisdom. Historically, the GOP has theorized that it benefits from lower turnouts because Republicans are more apt to go to the polls than Democrats.

But in this survey, Wilson was up by three points whether the turnout was projected to be high (80% of registered voters) or low (53%). A medium turnout (67%) showed the senator up by four points. By comparison, in 1982--an election similar to this one in that there was a close gubernatorial contest between two non-incumbents--the turnout of registered voters was 69.8%. In 1986, when Gov. George Deukmejian was expected to win big and did, the turnout was only 59.4%.

For purposes of projecting a turnout, The Times Poll asked registered voters a series of 10 questions aimed at assessing the likelihood that they would cast ballots. In arriving at its candidates’ standing of 45%-42%, the poll counted all registered voters that it surveyed.

Wilson’s supporters reported that they are more apt than Feinstein’s to vote absentee, mailing in their ballots instead of going directly to polling precincts on Election Day. Nearly one-fourth of those surveyed indicated they are likely to vote absentee, and among these people Wilson is supported 5 to 4.

The likely absentees basically represent a demographically balanced profile of the entire electorate, although they tend to be slightly more Republican than people planning to vote in the traditional way at their neighborhood precincts.

As for the pivotal undecided voters, they tend, compared to the electorate as a whole, to be more pessimistic about the economy and less supportive of tax hikes. The poll found them to be less happy with the job performances of Wilson, Deukmejian and President Bush, but also less impressed with Feinstein. They are more likely to be blue-collar workers and have low incomes. They are more apt to be women and less likely to be college educated. They also are less political and--in fact--less prone to vote.

A small but significant share of both the undecided and the committed voters give Wilson credit for abandoning the campaign trail last week and returning to Washington for budget votes. Feinstein had scored in their televised debate, according to a previous Times survey, by criticizing Wilson for being absent from the Senate during key end-of-session votes. Since then she has hammered him in TV commercials for absenteeism.

But Wilson appears to have “neutralized” Feinstein’s attack by temporarily folding his campaign tent and heading for the Potomac. Three-fourths of the voters told The Times Poll that Wilson’s move will make no difference in their voting decision. But among the rest, there were nearly five times as many who reported it makes them “more likely” to vote for him as said it makes them “less likely.”

The electorate also tended not to ascribe cynical motives to Wilson’s departure from the campaign trail. It generally disagreed with the statement that “the only reason” he returned to Washington was “because of criticism over his absence in the Senate on crucial votes, and not because he feels an obligation toward his senatorial duties.”

Feinstein, however, found herself in an awkward position when she refused to suspend campaigning herself, as she earlier had promised. The Democratic candidate insisted her pledge to knock off public campaigning while Wilson was in Washington was a one-time offer that applied only to the initial round of budget votes.

For nearly three-fourths of the voters, Feinstein’s continued campaigning made no difference. But among the rest, there were seven times as many who asserted that the apparent reneging on her pledge made them “less likely” to vote for her, as said it made them “more likely.”

Meanwhile, the barrage of television commercials seems to be helping Wilson a bit more than Feinstein, according to those interviewed.

Only one-third of the voters said that TV ads help them decide who to support in a political race. But among these people, Wilson has an edge over Feinstein. People who have seen both candidates’ pitches--6 in 10 have--favor Wilson slightly. The voters basically are divided equally over whether Feinstein’s commercials have been effective. But they tend to think that Wilson’s have been.

California’s voters, however, are basically sour on TV political commercials. Eight in 10 think they are “usually misleading” rather than “usually informative.”

The issues that voters say are the most important to them in deciding which candidate to support are crime and education, with each rating equally. The most important issue for Wilson’s voters is crime, while the most urgent for Feinstein’s is education.

The “important qualities” that are drawing voters to Wilson are his “political philosophy” and his “experience” in government--24 years as a state assemblyman, San Diego mayor and U.S. senator. But for Feinstein’s supporters, her philosophy is more attractive than any of her other assets by about 2 to 1.

In fact, “the right political philosophy” is No. 1 on the voters’ list of “important qualities”--evidence that issues are playing a leading role in their decision-making.

A gender gap exists, but it appears to be helping Wilson. Men are supporting him by 11 percentage points while women are backing Feinstein by only four.

Support is slipping for the thesis that “it’s time we had a woman governor.” Voters now are about 3 to 2 against this notion, compared to 4 to 3 in a Times survey the previous week and just barely opposed in September. Men object to the “time for a woman” idea by 2 to 1, but so also do women by roughly 4 to 3. Last week, women were divided almost evenly on this question.

Democrats are supporting Feinstein by nearly 3 to 1, while Republicans back Wilson by almost 5 to 1. It pretty much evens out because there are more Democrats than Republicans and independents essentially are divided down the middle.

VOTER PREFERENCES

Following are results from a Los Angeles Times Poll of 1,941 registered voters. Also shown are responses from previous polls.

NOW OCT.* SEPT. AUG. JUNE** MAY+ GOVERNOR: Dianne Feinstein 42% 41% 41% 39% 40% 36% Pete Wilson 45% 42% 39% 39% 37% 42% Someone else 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% Don’t know 12% 16% 18% 20% 21% 21%

* Oct. 13-16 ** After June primary + Before June primary