‘Undecided’ Will Decide Measure M

Support for Measure M, the transportation sales tax that has generated both intense support and opposition, has not improved in the past month and its fate lies in the hands of a relatively small percentage of undecided voters, a new poll shows.

Although the Times Orange County Poll shows that proponents have failed to woo more voters since the measure was struck down in a special election last year, it also reveals that undecided voters are inclined to support the proposal when they learn more about its effects on specific transportation projects.

As it stands now, 47% of all registered voters favor the half-cent sales tax hike--the same percentage found in a similar Times poll one year ago, a month before the November, 1989, special election defeat of Measure M. In the latest survey, conducted Monday through Wednesday of last week, 37% of the voters said they would oppose Measure M and 16% were undecided. The percentage was the same among likely voters. A ‘yes’ vote of 50% plus one is necessary for the measure to pass.

The poll was conducted by Mark Baldassare & Associates, which interviewed 600 Orange County registered voters by telephone. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4%.

The survey clearly shows that the road to victory for Measure M is making the public more aware of how the extra half-cent would be used. When respondents were read a list specific transportation projects that would benefit from the measure, such as increased transit service and expansion of freeways, “yes” responses increased from 47% to 58%.

The greatest effect of the reminders was on undecided voters: Nearly half switched their response from “don’t know” to “yes” when told of specific uses for the tax hike.

Supporters of Measure M have started mailing pamphlets breaking down specific uses for Measure M. But the Yes on M campaign has not raised as much money as last year--when the measure was defeated--and probably will be unable to saturate homes with information.

Even if supporters manage to get the information out, it is doubtful that there is enough time to sway enough voters, Baldassare said.

“Even if the message arrives, whether voters can sort through their various campaign literature to get the message is questionable,” Baldassare said. “It’s not clear that enough people would do change their votes to change what has been a very steady state of affairs for Measure M.”

One poll respondent who did switch her vote after getting more information was Virginia Christensen. She said she originally responded “no” because she had little background information on the measure, but changed her mind when she was given more specifics.

“We haven’t heard that much about it,” said Christensen, adding that the Times poll was the first time she was given any detailed information on Measure M. “I’m really upset about the traffic and I would vote yes.”

Indeed, the poll found that support for Measure M is highest among those most upset by county traffic conditions. Only 40% of those who said they were not upset by their daily commute and typical driving patterns were for the measure, but that figure rose to 56% among those who reported that they were very upset.

Frustration levels also reflected regional trends in support for the proposal. In South Orange County, 53% said they were very upset by traffic conditions and 51% said they would vote for Measure M. In the north, 37% said they were very upset, and 46% said they would vote in favor of the measure.

Earl Turner, a resident of Santa Ana, said that while he is upset by traffic problems, he will oppose Measure M because he fears that the tax increase will eventually be diverted to other uses.

“We got too many taxes as it is now, and they’re taxing us to death,” Turner said. “Past performance has told you they never do what (voters) want (with tax revenue). You watch--it’ll disappear like everything else.”

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Orange County poll was conducted Oct. 22-24 by Mark Baldassare & Associates. The telephone survey of 600 Orange County registered voters was conducted on weekday nights using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers.

For a sample of this size, the margin of error is plus-or-minus 4%. For the subgroup of likely voters, the margin is plus-or-minus 5%.

Sampling error is just one type of error that can affect opinion polls. Results also can be affected by question wording, survey timing and other variables.

All responses were anonymous, but some agreed to be re-interviewed later for a news story.

Measure M lacks majority support in Orange County. The half-cent sales tax proposal has the support of 47% of registered voters--virtually the same level as was found in a September Times Orange County Poll. But when voters are read a list of specific transportation projects that the measure would fund--such as adding lanes to the Santa Ana and Costa Mesa freeways and rebuilding the El Toro “Y”--support increases 11 points to a comfortable majority.

Measure M With Mention of Specific Projects:

Yes: 58%

No: 33%

Don’t Know: 9%

Measure M With No Mention of Specific Projects:

Yes: 47%

No: 37%

Don’t Know: 16%

Telephone survey of 600 registered voters, Oct. 22-24.

Measure M: Trends Over Time

“Measure M on the November ballot would raise the sales tax one-half cent in Orange County, from six cents to six and one-half cents for 20 years, with the funds to be used solely for transportation improvement and growth management programs in Orange County. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Measure M?”

Oct. 1989

Yes: 47%

No: 32%

Nov. 1989*

Yes: 47%

No: 53%

Sept. 1990

Yes: 45%

No: 46%

Oct. 1990

Yes: 47%

No: 37%

* November 1989 special election results.