Hollywood Holiday Derby : Handicappers Set Early Line on Season’s Field of 21 Major Movies

Paramount’s “The Godfather, Part III,” Columbia’s “Awakenings,” Universal’s “Kindergarten Cop” and Disney’s “Three Men and a Little Lady” are the four films likeliest to rack up the highest box-office grosses this Christmas season, according to people in the industry who bank on their ability to predict these things.

This year, the schedule is more jammed than usual, with the major studios set to release 21 feature films, three more than last Christmas.

“The saying goes that the pie is only so big, that carving it into so many pieces will mean a smaller slice for each,” said John Krier, president of Exhibitor Relations. “But everyone is hoping that the pie will get a little larger. There are so many pictures out there people want to see.”

So, which of these horses are going to break out of the pack? After talking with studio executives, producers, agents, marketing people and others in the business whose guessing games are more informed than others, here’s a handicap of the field:

Morning-Line Favorites:

“The Godfather, Part III” (Paramount, Dec. 25): An “event” film with tremendous “wanna-see,” even more “wanna-love.” Few believe it will be the work of art its Oscar-winning predecessors were, but who’s going to skip it?

“Awakenings” (Columbia, Dec. 20): A drama starring Robert DeNiro and Robin Williams, reportedly at the top of their form, this Penny Marshall film is said to pack a lot of emotional punch. DeNiro and the film have been mentioned as Oscar contenders.

“Kindergarten Cop” (Universal, Dec. 21): Insiders say this action-comedy, which re-teams director Ivan Reitman with his “Twins” star Arnold Schwarzenegger, has received incredibly high marks at research screenings.

“Three Men and a Little Lady” (Buena Vista, Nov. 21): The sequel to the studio’s 1987 Christmas hit, “Three Men and a Baby,” has also tested well and, as a sequel, has a built-in audience coming in.

Contenders:

“Edward Scissorhands” (20th Century Fox, Dec. 7, limited opening): Fox is high on this modern-day, off-kilter fable directed by fantasy-king Tim Burton (“Batman,” “Beetlejuice”). Though Johnny Depp is supposed to be terrific and research screenings have gone well, not everyone is convinced: “Show me a film that Depp has opened, let alone sustained,” said one producer. “And good reviews only bring you grosses like ‘Avalon.’ ”

“Misery” (Columbia-Castle Rock, Nov. 30): This ultra-scary psychological thriller, adapted by William Goldman from a Stephen King novel, has reportedly played even better with research audiences than director Rob Reiner’s last film--”When Harry Met Sally.” Sources say it will revive James Caan’s career and make a star of film newcomer Kathy Bates.

“Russia House” (MGM-Pathe, Dec. 19 limited): Word is the movie, adapted from a John le Carre novel, moves slowwwwwly. But the novel was one of the author’s most successful and accessible, and no one is betting against the pairing of Sean Connery and Michelle Pfeiffer.

“Green Card” (Buena Vista, Dec. 25 limited): A comedy produced, directed, and written by Peter Weir starring the ubiquitous Gerard Depardieu and Andie McDowell (“sex, lies, and videotape”). Disney believes it’s another “Pretty Woman.” Industry insiders give it a chance of filling one of the five best picture Oscar spots on February’s final ballot.

“Mermaids” (Orion, Dec. 14): A coming-of-age story featuring Cher, Winona Ryder and Bob Hoskins, said by some to be Ryder’s movie. There were well-publicized problems on the set (Richard Benjamin is the third director) and early eyewitness reports are decided mixed. “People are still fascinated by Cher,” says one producer. “But Benjamin, who hasn’t performed in a major way since ‘My Favorite Year’ has to be considered a question mark.”

“Havana” (Universal, Dec. 12, limited): A Sydney Pollack love story set against the Cuban revolution with Robert Redford and Lena Olin (“Enemies, A Love Story”). Redford is said to deliver his best performance in years, but the buzz is that there is little chemistry between the glamorous stars.

Dark Horses:

Other films may have tougher going, if the conventional wisdom is borne out. Tri-Star’s “Look Who’s Talking Too” (Dec. 14)--high interest and awareness notwithstanding--could find its inventive gimmick wearing thin.

Fox’s “Come See the Paradise” (Dec. 12), a World War II drama about an interracial relationship, is said by one eyewitness to be “the first truly boring film Alan Parker has made.”

“Alice,” (Orion, Dec. 25, limited) is characterized as one of Woody Allen’s more minor films, while Fox faces an uphill battle trying to sell “Predator 2” (Nov. 16) without Arnold Schwarzenegger in the title role. Warner’s “The Rookie” (Dec. 7) is perceived as a benchmark film for Clint Eastwood, an actor whose popularity as an action star has been on the decline. “If it takes off, his franchise will regain some luster,” said one producer. “If it fails it’ll be ‘next chapter.’ ”

In Warner’s “The Sheltering Sky” (Dec. 7, limited), Bernardo Bertolucci (“The Last Emperor”) reportedly elicits exquisite performances from his cast (Debra Winger and John Malkovich) but seems more comfortable on the epic scale than on an intimate one. “The fact that Warner Bros. didn’t screen it early says to me that there’s something slightly rotten,” said an executive at a rival studio.

Warners has another tough sell with “Hamlet” (Dec. 19, limited). Not only is it Shakespeare, but the casting of Mel Gibson in the lead has reportedly drawn laughs in theaters where the trailer has been shown. Still, the word on Gibson’s performance is good and director Franco Zeffirelli has been a master at popularizing works of the Bard.

Longshots:

As always, there’s talk of some clinkers. Paramount’s “Almost An Angel” (Dec. 19.) is said to be an unfortunate departure for “Crocodile Dundee” duo Paul Hogan and wife Linda Kozlowski. MGM-Pathe’s “Rocky V, The Final Bell”(Nov. 16) has been called “the major groan of the Christmas season,” an expensive embarrassment to a studio with a paucity of riches.

Research screenings of Brian De Palma’s “The Bonfire of the Vanities” (Warner Bros., Dec. 21) have reportedly not gone well. One eyewitness called it a “cartoon” of a film and questioned whether the material was suited to De Palma’s blood-and-guts style. “Everyone is asking if Brian can find a way to mutilate a woman in it . . . Melanie Griffiths watch out,” said a producer.

Fast Out of the Gate:

Kevin Costner’s “Dances With Wolves” soared on opening weekend, turning in a per-screen average of more than $40,000. Industry analysts believe it will hold steady when it’s released wide in the coming weeks.

On the Outside:

Independent films will also be jockeying for position. Among them, Miramax has three entries: Merchant/Ivory’s “Mr. and Mrs. Bridge” (Nov. 23, limited), a slow but tasteful art house film co-starring Paul Newman and Joanne Woodward; “The Long Walk Home” (Dec. 25, limited), a well-intentioned civil rights drama starring Sissy Spacek and Whoopi Goldberg; and “The Grifters” (Dec. 5, L.A. one-week Oscar-qualifying run), a dark comedy with great performances by Anjelica Huston and Annette Bening considered a bit downbeat for holiday fare.

Orion Classics is set to release “Cyrano” (mid-December in L.A.), a lush French production that won its star, Gerard Depardieu, the best actor award at Cannes.

No word at all on Bruce Beresford’s “Mr. Johnson” (Avenue, Dec. 12), but referring to its setting of road building in West Africa in the 1920s, one producer quipped: “They ought to put speed bumps in the aisle . . . to prevent people from leaving in droves.”