U.S. Senate Vacancies Could Create Opportunities for Local Politicians : Elections: New congressional districts, term limits and redistricting may produce lively races in 1992.

The logjam that has blocked the upward mobility of local politicians for years could be breaking up.

The election of Sen. Pete Wilson as governor and Sen. Alan Cranston’s announcement late last week that he has prostate cancer and will not seek reelection in 1992 probably will open some doors of opportunity. Wilson will resign from the Senate and appoint his own successor when he takes office in Sacramento early next year, but that successor would have to run for election in 1992.

With both of California’s U.S. Senate seats on the line in 1992, political figures from both parties have been sizing up their prospects of moving up to a more prestigious office. One such politician is Rep. Mel Levine (D-Santa Monica), who, even before Cranston’s announcement last week, was widely expected to make a run for the Senate in 1992. Levine, easily elected to his fifth House term Nov. 6, has made no secret of his desire to run for the Senate and has built a $1.7-million campaign treasury in anticipation of doing so.

Levine’s district stretches along the coast from the South Bay to Santa Monica. It includes Redondo Beach, Manhattan Beach, El Segundo, Hermosa Beach and parts of Torrance and Inglewood.

After Cranston’s announcement, Levine said he would consult with family and friends before making a decision on the Senate race. Levine said in an interview that the need to raise massive sums of money for a Senate race will prompt him to decide by early next year.

If he decides to enter the contest, Levine said he will “spend 1991 raising the war chest to run this race.”

If Levine runs, the prospect of an open seat in the House could set in motion a political chain reaction that involves state legislators in the South Bay.

“If there is an open seat, there will be a scramble,” said Robert Stern, co-director of the California Commission on Campaign Financing, a private group of business, labor and academic leaders interested in political reform.

State lawmakers, faced with newly enacted term limits, may be particularly interested in running for other political posts, Stern said. But because of reapportionment, Stern noted that there is no guarantee that Levine’s district will continue to exist in its current shape.

The boundaries of all legislative and congressional districts must be redrawn based on new census figures. California’s rapid population growth during the 1980s will mean as many as seven new congressional districts. But most of that growth has occurred elsewhere, and it may be difficult for all current lawmakers representing the South Bay and Westside in Congress to maintain secure seats.

And the reapportionment process that will get under way next year will be far different from what occurred after the 1980 census. Then, a Legislature dominated by Democrats joined a Democratic governor, Edmund G. Brown Jr., to adopt a plan highly favorable to their party. Wilson’s election on Tuesday gives the Republicans a veto this time around, which probably will assure that the 1990s reapportionment will be bipartisan.

Levine said it is “impossible to make an intelligent prediction” about what the boundaries of California’s congressional districts will be. If Wilson and the Democratic legislative leaders cannot reach a compromise, the new district lines will probably be determined in court, he said.

Whether a Senate bid by Levine would prompt political maneuvering in the South Bay will depend on the outcome of redistricting, political experts say.

If Levine’s district remains the same, they said, the odds would favor a Westside Democrat--and few South Bay politicians would be interested in running. That is because most of the South Bay portion of Levine’s turf is Republican and dominated by GOP politicians who would stand little chance of winning districtwide.

But one South Bay Democrat with a political base in Levine’s district, Assemblyman Curtis Tucker Jr. of Inglewood, says he might consider competing for Levine’s seat if it becomes vacant and its lines are altered.

“I’m always interested in different options, especially because of the term limits,” Tucker said this week. “If I were to put together a wish list, moving up the ladder (to Congress) would be on it.”

But Tucker added that the congressional district would have to be redrawn to include more of his South Bay Democratic turf and less of the Westside for him to win.

A second scenario spurring local congressional competition would be if Levine’s district were reshaped to include more South Bay Republicans. That would create an opening for a South Bay GOP officeholder with a power base in the district.

Just who, however, is unclear. State Assemblyman Gerald Felando (R-San Pedro), after stating in August that he might not seek an eighth term, now insists he will run for reelection.

And state Sen. Bob Beverly (R-Manhattan Beach) has not expressed interest in running for Congress. An aide says the senator has little desire to be a backbencher in Washington.

“His comment has been that it takes you 10 years to get a parking place back there,” said Tom Martin, who heads Beverly’s district office.

A third possibility is that Levine’s district--with no incumbent to claim it--will be scrapped altogether and a self-contained South Bay district will emerge, a move that would spark interest among South Bay Republicans and Democrats alike.

GOP political consultant Allan Hoffenblum said there is a good chance that reapportionment would leave the South Bay with its own congressional district. The result, he predicted, would be intense political jockeying.

There also is a measure of uncertainty concerning the future plans of one of the state’s highest-profile politicians: Assemblyman Tom Hayden (D-Santa Monica).

In an interview before last week’s election, Hayden said that after the vote he planned to “make a personal assessment of what I want to do with the rest of my life. I’m 50 years old. To continue a political career is an option. Not the only one. I resist efforts to try to draw a conclusion now.”

At that point, Hayden admitted: “My enthusiasm about giving the next several years of my life to electoral office is dim.”

Might Hayden run for Congress in 1992? Will he run for the U.S. Senate as he did in 1976? Will he seek reelection to the Legislature? Or will he get out of politics entirely?

For now, Hayden is noncommittal. After Cranston’s announcement, he refused to discuss whether he would seek one of the two U.S. Senate seats. “To immediately jump into political speculation would be inappropriate,” he said.

POSSIBLE CANDIDATES FOR HIGHER OFFICE U.S. Rep. Mel Levine

Has made no secret of his desire to run for the U.S. Senate.

Assemblyman Curtis Tucker Jr.

Might consider competing for Levine’s seat if it becomes vacant and boundaries are altered.

Assemblyman Gerald N. Felando

Stated in August he might not seek an eighth term, but now insists he will run for reelection.

State Sen. Robert G. Beverly

Has little desire to be a backbencher in Washington, an aide says.