P.M. BRIEFING : Recession, Recovery Seen in ’91

The nation’s purchasing managers today predicted the U.S. economy would be in recession during the first half of 1991 and then recover in the second half.

In its semiannual economic forecast, the National Assn. of Purchasing Management said overall nominal growth--before adjusting for inflation--will be a “weak” 2.2% in 1991.

The forecast said members surveyed were “extremely pessimistic” about the first six months of 1991. Comparing their outlook for the first half of next year to the last half of 1990, only 22% forecast that the next six months will be better, while almost twice as many members--43%--thought it would be worse.

But the number who said the second half of 1991 should be better than the first six months rose to 51%, and those predicting it will be worse dropped to 11%.