COVER STORY : The Smart Money Is on Brooks, Black

Garth Brooks, whose underdog anthem “Friends in Low Places” was one of the biggest country hits in years, also has some friends in high places when it comes to country music.

When Calendar asked 20 country-music leaders to predict who would sell the most records over the next seven years (the length of a standard recording-industry contract), the 28-year-old Tulsa native finished on top, narrowly ahead of another country newcomer, Clint Black, 28.

The runaway success of these two young singers--both of whom burst onto the scene in 1989--underscores the current changing of the guard in country music.

In fact, the enthusiasm for new artists in a field long dominated by veterans is so strong that 10 of the artists who finished in the top 20 can reasonably be characterized as newcomers.

By contrast, some of the legendary names in country music--including Willie Nelson, Johnny Cash, Merle Haggard, Loretta Lynn, Dolly Parton and Waylon Jennings--didn’t receive enough support from the panel of recording, radio and publishing executives to even make the top 20. The almost universal reaction when their names were raised: “It’s over for them as major sellers.”

The highest-ranking “veteran” in the survey was George Strait, who finished a distant third to Brooks and Black. Strait, 38, has only been recording since 1981, making him a mere pup by traditional country standards.

In the survey, the industry leaders were asked to name, in order, the 10 artists who they think will sell the most records over the next seven years. To encourage candor, the panel members were assured that their votes and comments wouldn’t be identified.

Brooks registered 166 points--two more than Black--in a system that awards 10 points for every first-place finish, 9 for every second-place mention and so forth. Each finished first on seven ballots.

“In many ways, we are talking 1 and 1-A in terms of potential when we talk about Brooks and Black,” said one panel member. “To me, Clint is a little sexier, feistier--a little mischievous. Garth is more down to Earth, like the Rock of Gibraltar. He looks as honest as the day is long. Who’s going to sell the most? It depends who’ll come up with the best material.”

Here are comments on individual artists:

Garth Brooks

* “The first thing you have to understand about Garth is he’s a tremendous entertainer. He’s got showmanship, which you don’t see a lot down here. And he’ll stick around until 4:30 in the morning signing autographs.”

* “Brooks isn’t just an incredible singer. He also has something to say . . . a point of view that people outside of country music can identify with, whereas Clint and some of the others seem to sell mainly to a traditional country audience.”

* “He’s influenced by Merle Haggard and Lefty Frizzell, but there’s also a pop influence in there somewhere, and that may give him a wider audience.”

* “Seems like a pretty stubborn fella, which I like. He’s willing to stretch out there a little bit, which means he’ll keep growing as an artist.”

Clint Black

* “Don’t underestimate the charisma and the looks. He’s sexy--not in the self-conscious way of Dwight Yoakam--but in the style of Johnny Cash or early Merle Haggard.”

* “He has the ability to sing in a bluesy, funky way, which gives him the potential to cross over into the pop field without losing his country touch or following.”

* “One thing I like about his future is that he has sold 3 million or so albums, yet most of the pop world still doesn’t know who he is. He has done no major endorsements or a movie and very little TV. He’s just in the beginning of his career.”

Among the concerns:

* “To me, Black is already wearing thin, and I don’t know if he’s a good enough writer to keep the momentum going. That can be a big problem if he decides to just do his own material rather than turn to outside writers.”

George Strait

* “He’s been around for so long that it’s easy to think he came up with Willie and Waylon, but Strait is closer in age to the newcomers. That sort of puts him between the generations, which is a great place to be because you can appeal to both age groups.”

* “One reason I’m not worried about his staying power is that he shows no signs of taking his success for granted. He’s got a great sense of what material works for him and he’s not overexposed.”

Wynonna Judd

* “In 20 years from now, people may look back on her the way they do today on Patsy Cline. She’s got a tremendous voice.”

* “I think she’ll be a stronger act than she would have been if she stayed with the Judds. She’ll have a much broader range of material to work with. That mother-daughter thing kept them bogged down to the wholesome, wholesome, wholesome, and there are only so many of those songs.”

Among the anxious panelists:

* “There was a lot of magic to that mother-daughter situation. I just don’t know if that will continue as a solo artist. She’s certainly a fabulous talent, but talent alone isn’t always enough.”

Reba McEntire

* “I just don’t care for the direction she is going in. She seems to be too concerned with being a pop star, and you know what that can mean. Remember what happened to Dolly Parton.”

* “I don’t think she is over by any means, but I don’t know if she can keep going at the old pace for seven more years. If they want new voices among men, it might be true for female singers, too.”

A strong supporter:

* “I’ve also never seen anyone in country music quite as smart and as dedicated when it comes to handling a career.”

Randy Travis

* “I think he has peaked. He’ll sell a lot more records, but as far as him being a dominant force in the ‘90s, I don’t think so.”

* “We all appreciate his sales and what he has done for this town, but there is something that doesn’t track for me. If he’s got a killer song, he’s fine, but he can’t make an ordinary song seem special. And that’s what it takes to be a big seller over a long haul.”

On the other hand:

* “The problem is he had such a tremendous impact on the market originally by showing that traditional artists could sell that people tend to take him for granted now. But I think he’s still the best young singer in Nashville.”

Alabama

* “They had a great run, but I think it’s nearing the end.”

* “These guys are real pros. They not only know what it takes to have a hit, but they have a great business machine. They also have one of the great country voices of all time in Randy Owen.”

Alan Jackson

* “This kid’s strength is his sincerity. He’s also a fighter. He kept a band together for three or four years while he was trying to get a record deal around here. A lot of people might have given up.”

Others, however, saw him as more flash than substance.

* “Sure has good jackets.”

Kathy Mattea

* “She’s a versatile singer with the ability to sound kind of on the edge and folky like Emmylou Harris, yet also sing pop like Anne Murray.”

Kentucky Headhunters

The pros:

* “They are exciting, wild, new, different and I think there is an audience looking for something a little bit crazy, in the best sense of the word.”

* “They are aiming for a place in the country market that no one else is going after. All those fans who grew up on Southern rock and the Allman Brothers may go after them.”

The cons:

* “Not sold on them. Too much of a novelty act for my tastes.”

“They may just be a Roman candle: A big flash and they drop out of sight.”

Those Who Didn’t Make the Top 10 List:

Here are selected comments on some new or veteran artists who didn’t make the Top 10--or in some cases, the Top 20:

Ricky Van Shelton: “He’s another Sonny James. He makes pleasant records, but no individuality or depth.”

Hank Williams Jr.: “I think he’s on the way down and the Headhunters’ success could make him go down even faster.”

Dwight Yoakam: “Lots of debate over him in Nashville. Some people think he’s got too much of a pop and rock mentality, but others admire his independence. Most of the town has written him off, but I think he could still be real important in building a bridge between country and pop and rock.”

Emmylou Harris: “She shaped my tastes and the taste of a lot of people in this town, but she’s not making records like she used to do. She’s lost that eye of the tiger.”

k.d. lang: “Incredible talent and great presence, but I just don’t think she and the country audiences are right for each other. She’s more of a pop singer to me.”

Merle Haggard: “Clint and Garth and Alan Jackson are real hot now, but I’d sign Haggard before any of them if I had a chance. The reason a lot of others are so hot is that they are Haggard soundalikes and country radio is in love with Haggard’s voice these days. At some point, people are going to say, why not just listen to Merle himself? It’s like the Coca-Cola thing all over again. . . . get back to the real thing.”

The Panel Members

Jimmy Bowen, president, Capitol Nashville; Connie Bradley, Southern executive director of the American Society of Composers, Artists and Publishers (ASCAP); Tony Brown, vice president, MCA Records in Nashville; Steve Buchanan, marketing manager for the Grand Ole Opry; Steve Buckingham: vice president of artists and repertoire, Columbia Records in Nashville.

David Conrad, vice president, Almo-Irving Music; Jerry Crutchfield, executive vice president, Capitol Nashville; Larry Daniels, general program manager, radio stations KNIX and KCW in Phoenix; Bob Guerra, operations manager, radio stations KLAC and KZLA in Los Angeles; Lon Helton, country editor of Radio & Records.

Bruce Hinton, president of MCA Records Nashville; Bill Ivey, executive director of the Country Music Foundation; Josh Leo, vice president, artists and repertoire for RCA Records in Nashville; Bob Montgomery: vice president, A&R; for Epic Records in Nashville; Jim Ed Norman, president, Warner Bros. Records in Nashville; Martha Sharp, senior vice president, artists and repertoire, Warner Bros. Records in Nashville.

Harold Shedd, creative vice president, PolyGram Records in Nashville; Roger Sovine, vice president of the Nashville office of Broadcast Music, Inc. (BMI); Jack Weston, vice president and general manager, RCA Records in Nashville; Roy Wunsch, president of CBS Records in Nashville.

THE TOP VOTE-GETTERS Calendar asked 20 country music leaders which country artist is going to sell the most records over the next seven years, the life of a standard recording contract? Artists were awarded 10 points for every first place selection, nine for every second place and so forth.

Artist Number of Ballots Total Points 1.Garth Brooks 19 166 2.Clint Black 19 164 3.George Strait 18 116 4.Wynonna Judd 13 80 5.Reba McEntire 14 69 6.Randy Travis 9 48 7.Alabama 7 43 8.Alan Jackson 11 42 9.Kathy Mattea 7 35 10.Kentucky Headhunters 7 34

The second 10: Vince Gill (7 ballots), 33 points;, Ricky Van Shelton (4) 25; Hank Williams, Jr. (5) and Joe Diffie (4) tied-21; Patty Loveless (4) 20; Mark Chesnutt (7) 19; Lyle Lovett (3) 16; Lorrie Morgan (3) 15; Doug Stone (2) 13; Dwight Yoakam (4) and Carlene Carter (3) tied-12.