POLITICS : Winnie Mandela’s Leadership Hopes: Verdict Already In

The kidnap-assault case against Winnie Mandela goes to a South African judge today for a decision, but an equally important, more enduring verdict on Nelson Mandela’s wife already has been given by her peers.

Two weeks ago, Winnie Mandela lost her bid to become national president of the African National Congress Women’s League, suffering a blow to her political aspirations and to her swift rise through the ranks of the liberation movement led by her husband.

Gertrude Shope, an ANC veteran recently back from exile, was elected by a margin of more than 2-to-1 in a vote most delegates considered a referendum on Winnie Mandela.

Shope owed her victory to a third candidate, Albertina Sisulu, who was so determined to see Winnie Mandela defeated that she withdrew from the race at the last minute and threw her support to Shope. Sisulu, the 71-year-old wife of Walter Sisulu and a beloved anti-apartheid figure, later was elected deputy president of the league.

Winnie Mandela had to settle for being a member of the league’s executive committee.

Now, Winnie Mandela, who is said to dream of one day leading the ANC, appears at age 56 to have reached a premature plateau in her political career. Barring a significant change of heart within the ANC, she seems destined to be, at most, a middle-level player in that organization.

One delegate to the women’s league conference described Winnie Mandela’s ballot setback as “a victory for democracy.” To many ANC supporters, democracy has been a casualty of her climb in the ANC hierarchy.

When her husband was released from jail last year, Winnie Mandela held no position in any liberation organization and had been ostracized by internal anti-apartheid leaders.

But she quickly collected five regional or national ANC titles, including director of the ANC’s social welfare department and a position on the executive committee of its most powerful region, which includes Johannesburg.

Each new position was achieved by executive appointment or voice vote, often with her revered husband present.

No one had to guess what Nelson Mandela thought about the controversy surrounding his wife. When reporters questioned his wife’s qualifications for the jobs, he responded with unmasked anger, saying journalists should be ashamed for asking such questions.

However, several ANC branches had written the organization’s leaders to complain about Winnie Mandela’s appointments. They got no reply.

Some ANC leaders believe that her defeat may help heal wounds caused by the trial, which has divided the ANC into those who think she is being targeted for political motives and those who believe she is guilty and should pay the price.

Meanwhile, her trial is drawing to a close in Courtroom 4-E of Supreme Court in Johannesburg without the fanfare and crowds that greeted its opening days in February.

Mandela’s attorney is scheduled to make his final remarks today and to turn the case over to Judge Michael S. Stegmann, who will decide whether she is guilty of kidnaping and beating four young activists at her home in December, 1988. Mandela has firmly denied the charges. Winnie Mandela has not won any new friends in the anti-apartheid movement during the trial. One of three prosecution witnesses disappeared under mysterious circumstances the night before he was to testify. And the defendant later angered many during her testimony by questioning the anti-apartheid credentials of several well-respected activists who had publicly denounced her in 1989 for the activities of her band of young bodyguards.

Whatever the outcome of the trial, political analysts note that Winnie Mandela still has strong support among anti-apartheid leaders in the United States and Europe, where her long history of courageous opposition to apartheid is well remembered.

And she remains the spokeswoman for large numbers of young, militant ANC members who think her husband is too eager to negotiate with the government.