Transit Planners Face Massive Task by Thinking Big

Flush with money from voter-approved sales tax hikes and bond measures at a time when other government agencies are bankrupt or begging, the Los Angeles County Transportation Commission is mapping a sweeping, $140-billion plan to revolutionize the way people move.

Elements of the 30-year plan date back a decade, when voters approved the first local sales tax surcharge. But the overall system and its estimated cost are just now being circulated. Public hearings on the plan begin today.

Some promises--such as train service between Los Angeles International Airport and Palmdale Regional Airport by 1997--seem optimistic in light of feasibility studies, but county transit czar Neil Peterson guarantees the scope of the system, if not its timetable, because the money is already approved.

Planners hope the system, with trains running from Santa Clarita to Long Beach and Moorpark to San Bernardino, not only will determine how many people will get around the region during a period of projected rapid growth, but also will influence development decisions about where to house the 1.3 million new residents expected to arrive in the next 20 years.

“Everybody looks for an answer” to congestion problems, said Peterson, executive director of the county Transportation Commission. “The fact is, you will have to do a lot of different things to have even a chance of meeting demand.”

To accommodate an estimated 75% increase in rush-hour travel in the next three decades, the commission is proposing a combination of subway and surface trains, dedicated bus and car pool lanes, highway improvements and expanded bus service. It also is exploring several ideas, such as telecommuting and tolls, to discourage rush-hour commuting.

Most of the services are scheduled to be running within 10 years, with construction financed with billions of dollars in bonds to be paid off with sales tax surcharges and general taxes well into the next century. Peterson’s goal in “front-loading” the system this way is to bring quick congestion relief, show speedy results to voters who approved sales tax hikes and lock up rights of way to avoid prices that could grow beyond reach in the next 20 years.

Transportation Commission staff estimate that when the rail, bus and car pool services are completed, they will roughly triple the rush-hour transit capacity in Los Angeles, as measured by the ability to carry as many people in one hour as one freeway lane. For example, a commuter train is estimated to be worth two lanes, the Blue Line trolley worth seven and the Red Line subway worth 14.

Even with this added capacity, planners expect most Southern Californians to continue commuting alone in their cars. At most, they want to reduce the ratio of single drivers to 60% of commuters by 2001, compared to about 80% today. They hope to do this by doubling the number of people who car-pool and take public transit.

Reaching even that goal, considered optimistic by some transit analysts, would result in average rush-hour freeway speeds of 28 m.p.h. by 2010, slightly below the current average of 29 m.p.h. Without expansion of public transit, population growth would slow rush-hour traffic to a 17-m.p.h. crawl by 2010, staff estimates indicate.

Commuters are expected to be lured out of their cars and into trains, buses and car pools by promises of speed and reliability. Subways are expected to average 31 m.p.h. even with stops, commuter trains 45 m.p.h., and buses and car pools 55 m.p.h. in special “high-occupancy vehicle” lanes.

“We think that if we provide attractive alternatives, people will choose them, as they have with the Blue Line,” Peterson said.

Skeptics wonder whether enough riders will make that choice.

About 31,000 people ride the Blue Line each day, an average of 1,033 riders an hour in each direction. That is equivalent to less than a single additional freeway lane, according to the commission’s own formula--less if one discounts the number of Blue Line riders who already were using public transit before the line was built.

Such modest results worry civil engineers such as Jonathan E. D. Richmond of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Richmond and others wonder whether rail lines will ever attract enough riders in parts of car-mad Los Angeles to justify their costs. Clean-fuel buses might be a better alternative, Richmond has suggested, because they play to the region’s strength, its extraordinary road network.

Peterson and Long Beach City Councilman Ray Grabinski, chairman of the county Transportation Commission, said roads are already well beyond capacity at rush hours, and there is no room or money to pour enough new concrete. They said buses will play a critical role, noting that the plan calls for adding 1,700 vehicles to the Rapid Transit District’s 2,100-bus fleet. But more commuters must fit into the land already set aside for roads--and the best way to do that is to add trains, busways and car pool lanes to those rights of way.

“We need to throw the baggage of the past off, get rid of the rubber-tired gas guzzlers,” said Grabinski.

To keep freeways from choking on additional traffic--and to keep the entire region from choking on pollution--air quality and congestion-management agencies are preparing to try to force commuters out of their cars.

Penalties will come in the form of ever-worsening traffic jams and, soon, parking fees and other assessments. Included are such things as electronic user fees--high-tech tolls billed to motorists monthly--if traffic is not brought under control.

But before such Draconian measures can be implemented, the region must offer an alternative to private automobiles. The new plan maps out what that alternative will be, Peterson said.

Four hearings will be held today: 1:30 p.m. at the Radisson Hotel, 1400 Park View Ave., Manhattan Beach; 2 p.m. at Los Angeles City Hall, 200 N. Spring St.; 5 p.m. at Luminarias Restaurant, 3500 Ramona Blvd., Monterey Park, and 7:30 p.m. at the Westwood Federal Building, 11000 Wilshire Blvd.

Two hearings are scheduled for June 20 at the Los Angeles Athletic Club, 431 W. 7th St., and at the Los Angeles County Transportation Commission headquarters, 818 W. 7th St., Los Angeles. The final meeting is June 27 at West Covina City Hall, 1444 W. Garvey Ave.

Turn-of-the-Century Transit

The Los Angeles County Transportation Commission has released its plans for improved transportation, from busways to carpool lanes to roving tow trucks. Key to the plan are the following train lines, which the commission plans to open within 10 years.

Proposed Rail Project Opening Dates (*Construction begun or completed)

* Blue Line: 1990

* Commuter Rail to Moorpark: 1992

* Commuter Rail to Santa Clarita: 1992

* Commuter Rail to San Bernardino: 1992

* Red Line to Wilshire/Alvarado: 1993

* Green Line: 1994

Pasadena Line: 1995

Orange Line to Wilshire/Western: 1996

LAX-Palmdale Line: 1997

Red Line to Hollywood/Vine: 1998

Red Line to North Hollywood: 2001

San Fernando Valley Line to Sepulveda Basin: 2001

Orange Line to Pico/San Vicente: 2001

Orange Line to East Los Angeles: 2001