CALIFORNIA ELECTIONS / THE 67TH ASSEMBLY DISTRICT : Assembly Race May Show Who Has GOP Clout

The race for a vacant Assembly seat based in Orange has become a tough match between at least two leading Republican candidates, but the winners and losers on Election Day are likely to extend far beyond those listed on the ballot.

At stake in the special election to fill state Sen. John R. Lewis’ former Assembly seat is the question of who wields power in the control rooms of California’s Republican stronghold.

GOP activist Mickey Conroy is backed by some of Orange County’s most prominent conservative leaders, including Reps. Robert K. Dornan (R-Garden Grove) and William E. Dannemeyer (R-Fullerton) as well as Assemblyman Gil Ferguson (R-Newport Beach).

But their combined influence has not made Conroy a clear front-runner, and some key conservatives--including Lewis--have decided not to take a position on the race.

Meanwhile, this race could reinforce the political clout of state Sen. Marian Bergeson (R-Newport Beach), who played a major role in Lewis’ successful bid for the Senate last March and is now working for the campaign of Orange Councilman William G. Steiner.

Steiner’s campaign has also brought together a coalition that includes all five county supervisors and top leaders from the development community.

Gov. Pete Wilson has not endorsed any candidate in the July 23 special election. But Conroy’s supporters claim that they have seen the governor’s fingerprints on the race since most of his major allies in Orange County have fallen behind Steiner.

They also contend that Wilson has a strong interest in the contest because it is the Republican conservatives in the Assembly who have given him the most trouble with his proposed state budget.

Steiner, former director of the Orangewood Children’s Home and an ex-Democrat, has claimed in his campaign that he is a conservative largely because of his opposition to a tax increase as a solution to Sacramento’s current budget problems. But on several other benchmark issues he breaks with many California conservatives. For example, he supports abortion rights and gun regulations.

Conroy, of Santa Ana, is opposed to a tax increase as well as gun control and a woman’s right to abortion.

Lewis’ seat became vacant when he was elected in May to fill the seat of former state Sen. John Seymour (R-Anaheim), who was appointed to the U.S. Senate by Wilson in January.

Lewis’ 67th Assembly District stretches from Silverado Canyon in the east to Orange in the west and from Yorba Linda in the north to El Toro in the south. It is the second most Republican Assembly district in California with the GOP enjoying an advantage in registered voters of nearly 60% to 30%.

As a result, the field of candidates includes six Republicans and only one Democrat. The other Republicans are former Tustin Councilman John Kelly, Villa Park Councilman Harold H. Saldarini, Tustin businessman Bill Earl and education instructor Tracy Gaffey, also from Tustin.

The Democrat is Gregory Robert Ramsay, a health-care manager from Santa Ana.

In a special election, voters can select a candidate from any party. But if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, then a runoff election between Ramsay and the top Republican will be held Sept. 17.

The controversial budget debate in Sacramento has limited the issues in the Assembly race almost exclusively to the question of taxes. “Taxes, taxes and more taxes; that is the front line of the debate,” said Dave Ellis, campaign manager for Steiner.

But the rhetoric from the two leading campaigns has been a battle over which one is more conservative. This week, each candidate charged the other with putting erroneous information in its campaign letters, and both demanded retractions.

At a recent meeting of the county’s Republican Party, Conroy charged: “A moderate Pete Wilson candidate is not a candidate for Orange County. . . . I promise representation in the manner you have been accustomed to in John Lewis.”

But Steiner responded at the same forum: “I truly feel I am a consensus candidate, endorsed by both conservatives and moderates.”

Money is likely to be a major factor in the race since Steiner is expected to outspend Conroy by as much as 5 to 1. Conroy is hoping to overcome Steiner’s financial advantage with a grass-roots effort by some of the county’s leading conservative volunteer groups, most notably the California Republican Assembly.

Another major factor will be the low voter turnout--possibly only 12% of the district’s registered voters--making it vital for both campaigns to generate absentee ballots.

“I think whoever wins the absentees will win the race,” said Costa Mesa Republican consultant Harvey Englander.