Public Skepticism, Confusion Obscure Goal of Peace : Israel: There was little excitement ahead of time about Baker’s visit and Bush’s plan for talks.

On Jerusalem’s open air Ben-Yehuda mall, a downtown oasis of cafes and shade trees, strollers and loungers hardly seemed to be holding their breath in anticipation Thursday of the decision by Israel to go to peace talks.

There was little excitement ahead of time about the arrival of Secretary of State James A. Baker III or the conference proposed by President Bush.

Rather, skepticism prevailed, along with weariness, over the confusing technicalities that have, in the minds of many, obscured the goal of peace.

“Nothing will come of the talks,” predicted Elon Viderman as he sipped a cool drink at an outdoor cafe. “The chasm between the two sides is too wide. And there are too many different positions.”

Motti Mishali, reading a newspaper nearby, was even harsher in his assessment. “The Arabs can’t be trusted,” he declared. “And who needs Baker? Do we have to be America’s slaves because they give us economic aid?”

The politicians’ mood was hardly more uplifting. Parties to the right of Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir’s Likud Party are threatening to abandon Shamir, although Tehiya, a splinter party in his coalition, postponed its exit from the ruling group after other rightist fringe parties stayed put.

Nonetheless, Tehiya leader Yuval Neeman said that Israel “is putting its head in a noose.”

For Shamir, the key to political survival lies inside his own party. Housing Minister Ariel Sharon, another powerful Likud leader, has called impending plans for talks a “capitulation” and may try to pull the prime minister down from within. Sharon distrusts Shamir’s pledge not to surrender the West Bank, Gaza Strip or Golan Heights to the Arabs.

Even among liberals, however, news of approaching talks has barely caused a ripple of enthusiasm. There has been only one pro-peace demonstration during Baker’s five months of Middle East junketing, and a small one at that.

The Labor Party, considered the main dovish force in Israeli politics, has been thrown off balance by the impending talks. On the one hand, party leaders have pledged to protect Shamir, their unremitting rival, from assaults by right-wing members of his own coalition, in case he agrees to the conference formula. Yitzhak Rabin, a prominent Labor leader, called the talks “a historic opportunity that Israel must not miss,” and other Laborites congratulated Shamir on conditionally agreeing to talks.

On the other hand, Laborites are squirming uncomfortably as they face the possibility that peace might be struck without them in power--for the second time in a decade. In the late 1970s, it was Menachem Begin, then the head of Likud, who made peace with Egypt while Labor looked on.

“Shamir will go nicely into the next elections if a peace conference is under way. Peace was Labor’s big campaign issue,” advised political scientist Aryeh Naor. National elections are scheduled for November, 1992, at the latest.

Indifference and skepticism characterize the expectations among Palestinians as well, and within their political leadership, the feuding has become as intense as that in Israel.

Across town on Saladin Street, the main Palestinian shopping area in Jerusalem, the mood was subdued and negative. “Shamir will never agree to peace. He only wants all the land. Look at all the roadblocks,” said Tamer Nasser, from the West Bank town of Birzeit.

Mistrust of American motives was also widespread. “Bush gives Israel everything,” complained Nabil abu Fahed, a bread salesman. “We have to make all the concessions.”

The most important issue at hand, in the minds of many, was the question of not having Palestinian representation from Jerusalem. Shamir refuses to attend if a Palestinian resident of Jerusalem is present at the talks on the grounds that attendance would throw into question Israel’s sovereignty over annexed parts of the city.

“There is Arab Jerusalem and Jewish Jerusalem. We are not stopping Israelis from Jerusalem from coming to talk. Why should they stop us?” asked Abu Fahed.

Palestinian leaders are divided by the complex formulas designed by Baker to get talks under way. One faction, led by Jerusalemite Faisal Husseini, has been promoting compromise, arguing that Palestinians cannot afford to be left behind.

Another, led by Radwan abu Ayyash, insists that the compromises are too many and that the talks are a trap for Palestinians. He told Israeli reporters that Shamir was “trying to win points even before the negotiations begin.”

Despite the disagreements, a Palestinian delegation headed by Husseini is expected to meet with Baker this morning.