Boom Days Ahead for North County : Region Expected to Be One of the Top Five U.S. Growth Areas in the ‘90s, Survey Says
North San Diego County will be one of the nation’s top five growth areas in the 1990s, according to a survey of more than 500 U.S. real estate executives, lenders and economists.
The survey asked respondents to rank the nation’s metropolitan areas in terms of population and job growth and how those factors will affect real estate values and development activity. The purpose of the study, conducted by the Ernst & Young accountancy-consulting firm, was to identify real estate investment opportunities and issues.
Nationwide, North San Diego County ranked behind only Sacramento; Orlando, Fla; Bellevue-suburban King County near Seattle, Wash., and Charlotte, N.C. On a statewide basis, North County was second only to Sacramento. For the purposes of the survey, North San Diego County was defined as the area north of and including Sorrento Valley.
The appeal of North San Diego County as a growth market lies in several demographic trends, including high population growth of North County cities, rising retail sales and the opening of the new Cal State San Marcos, where classes began last year. The study also cited local growth in the biotechnology and high technology industries.
Retail and taxable sales grew 232% in the county during the 1980s, a bullish growth indicator, said Max Schetter, director of the Economic Research Bureau of Greater San Diego Chamber of Commerce.
The 1990s may belong to North County in new retail development. Two shopping malls totaling 1.6 million square feet are planned for San Marcos alone, the study said. Developers are responding to mind-boggling consumer spending statistics such as one showing that the typical Escondido retail sales per household is $42,800, more than twice the national average.
Population is growing throughout the county as new residents move in and the local birth rate accelerates, said Joe Drew, a research analyst at San Diego State University’s Center of Public Economics.
San Diego County’s population grew by 2.8% in 1990, said Schetter. The county’s population increased by an annual average of 3% for much of the 1980s, peaking at 3.7% in 1989. That’s far above the U.S. growth rate of 1% and California’s average growth rate of 2% during the decade.
North County cities have outpaced the rest of the county by a long shot. During 1990, for example, Oceanside’s population grew 6%, San Marcos was up 5.6%, Vista rose by 5.1% and Poway grew 3.5%.
Despite the current recession, the survey projects that the North San Diego County population will continue to “grow by 3% a year, assuming that job growth will keep pace,” according to Jeff Kaufman, partner in charge of real estate advisory services at Ernst & Young’s San Diego office.
“What survey respondents are looking at are historical growth patterns and job creation,” Kaufman said. “And North County is leading most of the rest of the country (in those categories) by substantial amounts,” he said.
Although SDSU’s Drew believes economic factors could slow that rate, North County will continue to fare better than the rest of the state and country, he said.
“We have a national recession and a statewide recession that’s slowing (past growth rates) down, so we should see some changes,” Drew said. “And growth-control measures that could be put into force may impede future growth. But this is still a very desirable place to live as far as value of homes, as far as being a reasonable place to set down roots.”
Why the population growth? North San Diego County is favored for its coastal location, the relative affordability of housing contrasted with San Diego proper and Orange County, and the increasing numbers of Orange County workers willing to commute from North County homes.
Demographic projections for the years 1986 to 2010 by the San Diego Assn. of Governments, or Sandag, a regional planning agency, indicate that North County growth will continue unabated, said Jeff Tayman, a Sandag senior regional planner. The populations of Sandag’s North County West planning area, which includes Oceanside, Carlsbad and Encinitas, should grow by 67% during those years. The North County East area, which includes Vista, San Marcos and Escondido, is projected to grow by 92%. That contrasts with a predicted increase of 46% for the county as a whole, Tayman said.
“There are a couple of reasons for the projections. A lot of the region’s vacant residential land that is still availble for development is available in North County,” Tayman said. “Secondly, in some parts of North County it’s cheaper to live. Housing in Oceanside is generally cheaper than farther down toward the city.”
Schetter said the Ernst & Young survey confirms several studies he has seen over the past 15 years that “anticipated growth would be greatest in the North city, North County areas.”
“They have space, they are near Orange and Riverside counties for those who work and commute up there,” Schetter said. Proximity to the “coastal zone has something to do with it. Jobs have been available, and the business climate has been good.”
