Will They Love ‘Tonight’ Tomorrow?

Television: After Johnny Carson’s departure, Jay Leno’s ratings position will by no means be secure in the shifting late-night talk-show scene.

A year from now, in NBC’s fondest dream, Jay Leno will be sailing along smoothly as the new host of the network’s “Tonight Show.”

Well, maybe.

Two major program developments this week served as abrupt reminders that the late-night talk-show scene has become TV’s suicide alley:

ABC canceled its “Into the Night” series effective Nov. 14, after a disastrous run that originated in 1990 with Rick Dees. And the bright, new syndicated entry “The Ron Reagan Show,” plagued by poor ratings, will cease production Oct. 23, with optimists claiming it may yet be revived for another time slot.

Furthermore, Johnny Carson’s Thursday prime-time special marking his 29th anniversary on “Tonight” must have been a rather daunting sight for all of the pretenders seeking to claim his late-night television domain when he retires from the NBC series on May 22.

That includes Leno because, despite his comedy gifts, it is by no means a sure thing that he will retain Carson’s late-night ratings lead, say, a year from now. Although Arsenio Hall’s ratings have slipped a little on his syndicated series, he is still regarded by many as the late-night host to beat when Carson leaves.

If Leno shows a swift, strong ability to handle Hall, NBC will heave a collective sigh, and the new “Tonight” host may well be going strong on the series into the 21st Century--if the network doesn’t collapse first under its financial pressures.

The intriguing question, of course--one that NBC will have to start thinking about realistically just eight months from now, when Leno takes over--is what to do if he can’t fight off Hall. Under Steve Allen, Jack Paar and Carson, “The Tonight Show” has been unbeatable and, in many ways, the backbone of NBC.

In Leno’s favor is “The Tonight Show” itself, which at this point is a bigger TV star than he is. It is network TV’s premiere showcase. Also in his favor is history--the fact that each of the past “Tonight” hosts has been vastly different in approach than the other, and each has had to prove himself in the face of doubters.

Yet the bottomless pit of late-night failures is a constant specter to all who would be king (or, in Joan Rivers’ brief attempt on Fox TV, queen).

ABC’s “Into the Night,” for instance, was a classic formula for late-night failure. Hardly 30 minutes had passed on Dees’ very first night when a viewer knew that here was a case of terminal inanity. The show never had a sense of style, the ultimate trademark of “Tonight.”

“Into the Night” also was a show with a very bad memory of past TV. It is possible that a late-night TV entertainment series can succeed in a big way without a host who is a comedian--Tom Snyder did it--but the odds are heavily against it.

Even worse, once Dees stepped down from the show, ABC ignored the past again by attempting one of the most unsuccessful formulas known to television--a series of temporary hosts and personalities. No matter how good the performers, it just doesn’t work on most big-league shows because there is no sense of continuity or someone being in charge.

Fox TV, of course, tried to get off the ground with “The Late Show Starring Joan Rivers,” yet when that show lasted only seven months the new network also defied TV history, employing a similar format of guest hosts (including one Arsenio Hall). Like the other networks, Fox paid the price and eventually disappeared in late-night.

It is rather incredible that two networks, ABC and Fox, now have abandoned the enticing profit center of late-night TV entertainment in just the last few years. Which is another reason why pretenders to the throne may regard their task with trepidation--and also why, at the same time, there is the constant attempt to come up with just the right personality to corner the market.

Young Reagan certainly didn’t fit the formula of late-night success, yet he has such a winning, intelligent twinkle to his style that he deserves another crack, at a more suitable hour.

And in its way, CBS was at least partially on the right track with “The Pat Sajak Show,” a late-night series that debuted in 1989 but lasted only 15 months. The network went for an established TV personality with some wit and bite, but in the end he didn’t have strong enough comedy experience or ability, and CBS stuck him with a 90-minute show (later shortened to an hour) that began to seem an eternity.

CBS’ idea was that Sajak would be established to grab the late-night audience when Carson retired. Right idea, wrong execution. But others had the same idea--primarily Hall. And with Hall now declining a bit, Carson ready to leave and Leno about to become fair game, the challenges from ABC and Reagan seemed, if nothing else, well-timed.

Yet another late-night entry, “The Dennis Miller Show,” starring the former “Saturday Night Live” performer who was excellent as a host of the recent Emmy Awards telecast, will debut in syndication this winter.

ABC now hopes to develop a “home-run program” to throw against Leno. CBS apparently will continue to program against him with its current late-night crime series. Hall remains the hurdle for Leno, who, as Carson did for years, must prove his worth against all competition.

If he doesn’t, it may well reopen the argument of whether David Letterman should have gotten the “Tonight” job. NBC took the conventional approach by choosing Leno, clearly surmising that viewers wanted someone in the Carson mold--and perhaps not thinking through the fact that there is only one Carson.

Nothing is more important for Leno than to make “Tonight” totally his own and give it a new look--as Allen did, as Paar did, as Carson did, and as Letterman would have done.

No one wants a carbon-copy format.

In a way, Hall is also on the spot. Leno is a superb performer. But if Hall can’t beat Carson’s replacement, his own stardom will be affected.

Letterman, however, is sitting pretty. He still has his own series, and if “Tonight” suddenly springs a serious leak in the post-Carson era, who else would NBC dare turn to?