WASHINGTON INSIGHT

GATES MAY GAIN: Robert M. Gates’ nomination to become CIA director could be helped--ironically--depending on how the current furor involving Supreme Court nominee Clarence Thomas proceeds.

Congressional strategists had earlier thought that some senators might divide their support on the two confirmations--voting for one of Bush’s candidates and against the other as a way to maintain their independence while still not seeming to be “unfair” to the President. Until this past week’s developments, the betting had been that Thomas’ nomination would slide through the Senate but that Gates’ confirmation would barely squeak through--and could well be in jeopardy.

But the sexual harassment charges against Thomas have clouded those prospects. As it stands now, the Senate is scheduled to vote on the Thomas nomination Tuesday and on Gates’ appointment Friday. If Thomas is rejected, it could significantly boost support for Gates, one insider predicts. “A lot of people are talking about splitting their votes,” he said.

BACKLASH BREWING?: Lawmakers are squirming in the face of Congress’ worsening image among voters over the handling of the Thomas nomination and other recent brouhahas.

The backlash has become so virulent that some legislators fear it could set off another anti-incumbent mood similar to the one that threatened them in 1990. Several have reported that they now dread going to town meetings in their districts because they are sure that they will face a barrage of new criticism. The outpouring appears to be especially intense from women incensed over the Senate’s seeming insensitivity on the sexual harassment issue.

Senators and congressmen reacted quickly but apparently without much success. House Speaker Thomas S. Foley (D-Wash.) moved with near-record speed to end check-bouncing at the House bank, the piling up of restaurant bills in the House dining room and the fixing of parking tickets by lawmakers. But the image remains. Most rapid turnaround: Sen. Alan J. Dixon (D-Ill.). Last Monday, he made a speech saying that he will vote for Thomas no matter what. The next day, after protests by women’s groups, he called for more time to consider the allegations.

CRIME AND PUNISHMENT: President Bush is struggling to keep his crime bill from being scuttled--this time by congressional Republicans.

Bush had hoped to cite passage of his crime bill--along with his almost-as-controversial transportation bill--as a high point during the 1992 election campaign. He challenged Congress in the flush of his Persian Gulf War triumph to enact both measures within the following 100 days.

That deadline has expired, and neither bill has been passed. Instead, Democrats have crafted their own alternatives--including a more middle-of-the-road crime package that omits Bush’s most-controversial provisions: broadening the death penalty and limiting the number of times that Death Row prisoners may claim improper handling of their trials. But Republicans are also now threatening to embrace the Democratic bill on grounds that it is more likely to pass without creating a major political backlash. The White House has been stepping up the pressure on GOP lawmakers to stick with the President’s bill, with Bush inviting a group of them to the White House for an arm-twisting session.

But the outcome is still up in the air. If Bush loses the battle over the crime bill, all he will have to show domestically in next year’s campaign is his education reform plan, which some aides fear may prove to be a lackluster vote-getter.