PRO FOOTBALL / BOB OATES : There Will Be More at Stake Than Pride

The Rams will return to the Coliseum to play the Raiders this Sunday in somewhat nervous circumstances:

--For the loser, it could mean the end of the fight for a place in the playoffs.

--Because both clubs were impressive in last Sunday’s games, the Ram-Raider winner will be taking an important little winning streak into a difficult stretch of the schedule.

The Rams (3-3), in their next six, must face two unbeaten teams, New Orleans and Washington, and two rising teams, Kansas City and Detroit, in addition to division rivals San Francisco and Atlanta.

The Raiders (4-3), who are at Kansas City and Denver in their next two, must face pace-setting Buffalo and New Orleans down the road--and Kansas City again.

They can’t afford to lose to the Rams, who can’t afford to lose to the Raiders.

Don’t blame Steve: The most significant of Sunday’s happenings was the performance of the 49er defense in a game that Atlanta won, 39-34.

Some San Francisco fans fear that their defensive team, which is clearly among the NFL’s top three or four, has finally quit.

All year--for 10 years, actually--defense has been holding the 49ers upright on a stage where the spotlight has been continually on such offensive players as Joe Montana, Jerry Rice and Steve Young, thus obscuring the achievements of the other platoon.

It was their former coach, Bill Walsh, who built the 49ers into a defensive team, essentially, in the early 1980s. And so it remained--until Sunday, when the Falcons got four touchdowns, four field goals, 160 yards rushing and 208 yards passing.

For the 49ers, Young did what Montana used to do, taking them to five touchdowns. But this time, all that wasn’t enough.

Montana has undergone surgery, after weeks of trying to avoid it, and is out for the season. Did that demoralize the 49er defense? Has the defensive group been hanging on in a desperate hope that the team would have Montana for the playoffs? Has it indeed finally quit?

That is the challenge up there.

Good odds: As one who often endorses passes over runs, this reporter made a helpful suggestion recently: With a first down on the other side’s 10-yard line, the soundest strategy for a good NFL offense is to throw three consecutive times.

It was suggested that the mathematical odds of a completion are 50% on first down, 75% on second down and 87.5% on third down.

According to Los Angeles mathematician Donald E. Keenan, that isn’t quite right. The Caltech mathematics Ph. D, writes:

” . . . If such a team does pass on every down, 50% of the time it will complete a pass on first down, 75% of the time it will have completed at least one pass on first or second down, and 87.5% of the time it will have completed at least one pass on first, second or third down.”

That’s more or less what was meant.

In any case, addressing the NFL’s bolder offensive coordinators, Keenan notes: “ . . . If (the) team decides to go for broke and is willing to pass on fourth down as well, it will complete at least one pass by the end of the fourth down 93.75% of the time.”

Few innovators: The Washington Redskins, 7-0 heading into their bye week and still in front in the Super Bowl speculation, could have easily added a fourth 1991 shutout Sunday, against the Cleveland Browns.

Cleveland is going nowhere this season--and shows it almost every week--but in Washington, the Browns’ new coach, Bill Belichick, said: “No shutouts.”

Realizing that a blank could undermine the young team he is trying to turn around, Belichick put in a trick play that was virtually guaranteed to get the Browns a touchdown the first time they lined up for a field goal at any distance--at 50 yards or even more.

“It wasn’t anything special,” he said Monday. “I’ve used the play before when I was a special teams coach.”

If so, the Redskins hadn’t seen it. A potential 42-0 winner, they eventually won, 42-17, after the Browns behaved as follows to stun them in the first quarter:

--On fourth down, as Belichick’s kicking team came out for, ostensibly, a 28-yard field-goal try, wide receiver Webster Slaughter appeared to be the last of the Browns’ offensive starters to leave the field.

--Slaughter, in fact, didn’t leave. As he loafed toward the Cleveland bench, he made a sharp turn and, unguarded, scored an easy touchdown on a surprise pass from the ball-holder, Brian Hansen.

“Pretty cute,” Redskin linebacker Matt Millen said. “Nobody’s used many trick plays this season.”

And that’s why, at times, some fairly good teams have lost games this season. Where have all the innovators gone?

Coles is pro-choice: It’s more important to lead cheers for losers than winners, according to Lisa Coles, the chief cheerleader for the New England Patriots.

“We can inspire some kind of (team) enthusiasm,” Coles said.

Noting that some critics take a negative view of NFL cheerleaders, she said: “The main thing feminists are trying to get across is that women should have the right to choose what they want to do.”

And among others, Coles chooses to cheer.

Jet streamer: The NFL team most obviously on the rise this fall is the New York Jets, in the opinion of Chicago Bear Coach Mike Ditka.

“They’re better than the Buffalo Bills,” Ditka said, exaggerating only slightly, perhaps, to make a point.

In Sunday’s 23-20 loss to Houston (5-1), the Jets nearly won in an upset as, for the second week in a row, bruising 235-pound fullback Brad Baxter was the game’s top rusher.

Baxter is also still leading the Jets in practice-field hits. When 240-pound teammate Bobby Houston, a linebacker, picked himself up the other day, he said: “Hey, man, you didn’t have to do that.”

Said Baxter: “That was a cut block. I try to give the defense a good picture in practice.”

Of his running style, Baxter said: “It’s not a hard job. The (tackler) is coming right at you--you can’t miss him. All you’ve got to do is hit the target.”

Quote Dept.:

Ray Childress, Houston defensive end: “On a scale of one to 10, (the Oiler defense) was a five last year. We’re a 7 1/2 now.”

John Elway, Denver quarterback, on throwing on third and 15: “When you’ve been getting ( sacked ) , it makes you kind of uncomfortable.”

Elway, comparing NFL teams after the Denver trade that brought in pass-protection blocker Harvey Salem: “When you have a management that goes out and picks up players when we need them, it makes your confidence higher that management is trying to make you better.”

Wayne Fontes, Detroit coach, on Lion players Rodney Peete, Barry Sanders, Chris Spielman, Jerry Ball and Bennie Blades: “We need a pass rusher, we need help on the offensive line, (but) we’re coming. We have the best young team in football.”

Buddy Ryan, former Philadelphia coach, on “the best play in football,” the run-pass option: “When we played Roger Staubach, he’d (run for) three big first downs a game. That’s what you’ve got to have.”