Computer Overload? : Big Show Will Be a Blur of New Products
The annual Comdex computer trade show, opening Monday in Las Vegas, is always a chaotic affair. But this year, the oversized crowds and confusing welter of new products will reflect genuine turmoil that’s afflicting every corner of the personal computer industry.
Several eagerly anticipated products--including an impressive line of notebook-size computers from Apple and a raft of machines that replace keyboards with pens--will be introduced at the show. And International Business Machines will be among several companies touting slick “multimedia” computers that broaden the boundaries of the PC by adding sound and video.
Yet these innovations will debut against a backdrop of stagnant sales and a bitter battle over standards for the next generation of personal computers. Never before has the industry had so much technological potential and so little growth and direction.
“This industry has created its own slump,” says Andrew Seybold, an analyst at the market research firm Dataquest. Corporate computer buyers “don’t know which software operating system to use, they don’t know what hardware to buy, so they’re saying, ‘I’ll wait a couple of years.’ ”
Some analysts and company executives are less critical of the industry, maintaining that the 18-month-old slump has more to do with the recession than customer dissatisfaction. PCs are now so widely used in businesses large and small that the industry is more vulnerable to broad economic cycles than in its younger years.
Clearly, though, after a decade in which the IBM PC standard defined the mainstream and Apple Computer played the role of loyal opposition, the industry is in the throes of a major upheaval that is contributing to--and may ultimately cure--the current sales malaise.
IBM and software vendor Microsoft, whose alliance defined the PC standard, are at war over the next generation of software operating systems. IBM and Apple have teamed up to define high-performance computers for the second half of the 1990s. Intel’s computer-on-a-chip--the other key component of the IBM standard--is being challenged by upstart MIPS Computer Systems and by the Apple/IBM alliance.
Uncertainty about how all this will play out may be slowing sales now, but many are optimistic that the ultimate result will be a new round of exciting innovations. Apple Chairman John Sculley says his company teamed with IBM so the two can create exciting new technologies that will spur growth.
Those breakthroughs are still several years away. But computer pundit Stewart Alsop believes that the industry is “just about to break out” of the slowdown on the strength of pen computers, multimedia and impressive new programs designed for Microsoft’s Windows software system.
There will be plenty of new and improved products on display at Comdex. Apple will roll out three lightweight, notebook-size versions of the Macintosh computer, one of which is manufactured by Sony Corp. Ranging in price from $2,000 to $4,000, the computers replace the traditional Macintosh “mouse” with a built-in “track-ball” located just below the keyboard.
Apple will also unveil a new version of the popular Macintosh Classic and two top-of-the-line Macintoshes that feature the speedy new 68040 computer-on-a-chip from Motorola.
Many IBM-compatible vendors will also be upping the ante in notebook computers, one of the few product areas where growth remains strong. Sharp will introduce a powerful color notebook that Tim Bajarin of market researcher Creative Strategies calls “the one you’ll really covet.”
Following on the heels of the notebooks in the continuing trend toward “mobile” computing are a new breed of products that use a pen rather than a keyboard. Some are designed for harried executives on the go who don’t want to type. Some are aimed at sales representatives and others who need to fill out forms in the field. All combine the basic internal hardware of a regular PC with a special touch-sensitive screen and handwriting recognition software.
Grid Systems, NCR Corp., Momenta, Samsung, Microslate, Telepad and Dauphine Technology will be among companies displaying new pen computers, though some of them are not ready for shipment. Much of the attention will be focused on demonstration versions of two competing pen-computer software operating systems--one from Microsoft and the other from start-up Go Corp.
Multimedia computing, which adds sound and video to the graphics and text of traditional computers, will also attract a lot of attention at Comdex. As with pen computers, the excitement is based mostly on hopes for future growth rather than short-term sales.
Personal Computer Sales
Worldwide personal computer sales are expected to continue to grow......
All figures from 1991 ahead are projections
In billions of dollars
1995: $83,689
...... with notebook and pen-based computers being among the hottest newer segments. NOTEBOOK COMPUTER SALES
Billions
1995: $13.17 PEN-BASED COMPUTER SALES Billions
1995: $13.13 Source: Dataquest
