Vance Sums Up Yugoslav Outlook: Bleak : Civil war: Special envoy warns that ‘time is running out.’ He cites violations of U.N. arms sales embargo and finds no effective central government.

Former Secretary of State Cyrus R. Vance, head of a special U.N. fact-finding mission, presented a bleak picture Saturday of the civil war in Yugoslavia and warned that “time is running out and running out rapidly.”

Returning from a weeklong trip to Yugoslavia as a special envoy of U.N. Secretary General Javier Perez de Cuellar, Vance also made clear that the U.N. embargo on arms sales had been violated with impunity.

“It is clear that the embargo is not working and that arms are coming in from many places,” he said. But he did not identify the violators.

Moreover, he went on, “There is no longer in my judgment any effective central government in Yugoslavia.”

Vance, who was secretary of state in the Jimmy Carter Administration, also estimated that the battling and carnage had forced 400,000 people to flee their homes and seek refuge elsewhere in Yugoslavia.

Despite the warning that time is running out, neither Vance nor Perez de Cuellar would say what they believe the United Nations needs to do to try to salvage the situation. The secretary general said that he and Vance will prepare some “observations, not recommendations” to present to the Security Council, probably this week.

In a special meeting attended by foreign ministers, the Security Council adopted a resolution last month calling for an arms embargo, supporting the efforts of the European Community to reach a solution and creating the special Vance mission.

Vance took note of news reports from Yugoslavia that the fighting had halted in accordance with a truce agreement worked out Friday at a peace conference in The Hague organized by the EC.

But he was pessimistic that the cease-fire would hold. “Cease-fires seem to be announced and sadly seem to break down” in Yugoslavia, he said.

Vance said that he had spoken with every significant leader in Yugoslavia. But, “despite the intentions of men and women of goodwill,” he went on, “the situation has worsened.” This is true of the human suffering and of the economy as well, he said.

Vance said he believes that the various Yugoslav leaders have “a sincere desire to find a solution, because the carnage is just unacceptable, devastating.” But, while they accept the principle of a solution, they cannot agree on the details.

“They would like to begin to move to a settlement,” he said, “but they are a long way off.”

Vance said the key elements of a settlement must guarantee minority rights, create a loose alliance of the various states of Yugoslavia and ensure that the borders of these states cannot be violated.

Negotiations are hampered, he said, because “it is true that the leaders do not always have power to make effective decisions.”

Nevertheless, Vance said, “In the end, I would hope it would be possible to reach a solution.”