Dreams of a ‘Dangerous’ Christmas : Retailers Pin Their Hopes on Michael Jackson, but He’s Got Rivals

Record retailers predicted this week that Michael Jackson’s new “Dangerous” will be the album to beat in the holiday sales race, which merchants are hoping will bring relief to the recession-pinched industry.

But, they added, the eccentric pop icon will face competition from a variety of sources, including country hero Garth Brooks and rockers U2, Nirvana and Guns N’ Roses.

Though SoundScan, the company whose research is used in compiling the weekly pop sales charts, won’t release figures until next Wednesday, a survey of retailers late Wednesday suggested that the Jackson album got off to a fast start Tuesday, its first day in the stores. Estimated sales of the Epic Records release that day: 100,000 copies.

At that rate, the album could match or exceed the 600,000 first-week sales figures generated earlier this year by three albums: Guns N’ Roses’ “Use Your Illusion I” and “II” (approximately 770,000 and 685,000 respectively) and Metallica’s “Metallica” (600,000). Most record stores were closed Thursday.

Record industry retailers, whose business was down 11% during the first six months of the year, have been counting on the “Dangerous” album to help draw customers back into the stores. At 21 million, Jackson’s 1983 “Thriller” is by far the biggest-selling album in U.S. pop history.

“Black or White,” the upbeat single released from the new Jackson album, goes to No. 1 on the Billboard singles chart this week after just three weeks in the stores. That’s the fastest a single has gone to No. 1 since the Beatles’ “Get Back” in 1969.

Still, questions have been raised in recent months over whether Jackson can come close to that level again--especially in such difficult economic times.

“When you have a superstar of Michael’s caliber leading the charge, it gives retailers a concrete reason to be optimistic,” said Bruce Jesse, vice president of advertising and sales promotion at the 300-outlet Wherehouse Records.

“Michael is selling great and we’re excited about it. Although there is certainly a recession going on, early indications are that this will turn out to be a very strong Christmas season.”

Arnie Bernstein, president of the 1,000-store Musicland chain, said, “Michael’s first day was not as strong as Guns N’ Roses but nobody here expected it to be. . . . Michael has a completely different kind of fan base than Guns N’ Roses. They aren’t just tuned into the first hour or day that the record comes out. We anticipate that ‘Dangerous’ will dominate the sales picture well into the new year.

But Russ Solomon, president of the 60-branch Tower Records, was more cautious.

“While I think Michael’s record is bound to sell well, I do not expect this Christmas season to be sensational,” he said. “We’re hoping for the best, but the way things are going with the economy these days, people are just not actively spending their money. There are a lot of great records out there for people to choose from, but it doesn’t matter what kind of product you’re selling, times are tough.”

But retailers aren’t just counting on Jackson’s hybrid pop music formula to deliver customers.

Recent releases by hard rock, metal, rap and country artists are also expected to compete for the pop fan dollar during the holiday season, which traditionally is the record industry’s busiest period.

Here are the other albums that retailers cite most when talking about year-end pop contenders:

* U2’s “Achtung Baby” on Island Records. This is the first album in three years by the acclaimed Irish rock band whose “The Joshua Tree” won a Grammy in 1987 as the best album of the year and has sold more than 5 million copies in the U.S. The gritty-edged collection, which has received far stronger reviews than the Jackson album, was released Nov. 19 and sold an estimated 275,000 copies its first week in the stores. That was enough for it to enter the national charts at No. 1.

* Nirvana’s “Nevermind” on DGC Records. There was a strong buzz about Aberdeen, Wash., rock trio in college and alternative rock circles after its much-admired debut album was released in 1989 on the independent Sub Pop label. But virtually no one expected the follow-up--despite rave reviews--to jump into the Top 5, which it did last month after just six weeks in the stores. “Nevermind” is selling about 100,000 copies a week. The video, “Smells Like Teen Spirit,” is one of the hottest tracks on MTV.

* Garth Brooks’ “Ropin’ the Wind” on Capitol Records. Brooks’ domination of the country charts with his first two albums was a tip-off in 1989 and 1990 that something was building here, but even veteran Nashville observers were startled when this album--Brooks’ third--held the No. 1 spot on the pop charts for eight straight weeks until it was dethroned by U2 this week. While critics are divided about Brooks’ albums, he’s a captivating live performer who is at the heart of country’s latest commercial resurgence. Sales have never dropped below the 175,000-a-week level.

* Guns N’ Roses’ “Use Your Illusion II” on Geffen Records. Led by the controversial and charismatic Axl Rose, the Los Angeles hard-rock band started off with a bang in October. Believed to be the first rock act to release two albums simultaneously, Guns N’ Roses captured the first two spots on the sales charts during the albums’ first week in the stores. “II” has been in the Top 10 ever since--and should get a sales boost when Rose and company resume touring next month.

* Hammer’s “Too Legit to Quit” on Capitol Records. Back when he was known as M.C. Hammer, the Oakland rapper-dancer delivered the biggest selling rap album ever with his 10-million selling “Please Hammer Don’t Hurt ‘Em” in 1990. But most retailers are saying that sales on this heavily promoted follow-up are sluggish and reviews have been not been strong. Many expected it to enter the charts at No. 1 last month, but it couldn’t dethrone Brooks. It’s No. 3 on this week’s chart, selling an estimated 126,000 copies last week.

Other albums also cited by retailers as possible key factors in the year-end sales picture: Mariah Carey’s “Emotions” on Columbia, Michael Bolton’s “Time, Love and Tenderness” on Columbia, Ice Cube’s “Death Certificate” on Priority and Bryan Adams’ “Wakin’ Up the Neighbors” on A&M.;

Retailers estimate that the music business does about 25% of its annual $7 billion-a-year sales between Thanksgiving and Christmas.

Musicland’s Bernstein is not worried about the troubled economy.

“If we were selling cars I’d be a very nervous man,” Bernstein said this week. “But our product is priced right for a slow economy. Music is still a very reasonably priced gift item and we anticipate the upcoming Christmas season to be a strong one.”