O.C. Legislators Survive Remap for Most Part

If reapportionment is like musical chairs, then the music just stopped and everybody is looking for a seat.

But despite the chaos many expected from reapportionment, it appears that most Orange County lawmakers could land comfortably. A few longtime legislators are still standing, however, and some could be out.

As the outlook clears following last week’s release of proposed redistricting maps by the state Supreme Court’s special masters, local political observers are no longer predicting a major turnover in Orange County’s political roster.

Certainly more candidates are expected to appear, and the court could make adjustments to the district lines before it is finally adopted late next month. But there are only a handful of the county’s 17 proposed state and federal districts where a showdown between well-known politicians has taken shape.

“Everybody was counting on a whole new (congressional) seat coming in,” said Assemblyman Gil Ferguson (R-Newport Beach). “Now they’ve got to take on incumbents. It has probably stopped as many as two assemblymen and one senator from running for something.”

The new maps also give special recognition to the county’s growing Latino population. The map-makers created a district for both chambers in the state Legislature as well, as in Congress, in which at least half the population is Latino.

Latino groups say they intend to offer candidates for the seats, although none has yet announced a campaign. Also, each of the districts that was drawn to increase Latino voting power under the National Voting Rights Act is already in the territory of estab lished incumbents.

“Based on preliminary observations, the Latino community of this state has achieved a great victory,” said Zeke Hernandez of Santa Ana, state director of the League of United Latin American Citizens. “The Latino community in Orange County will support the reapportionment lines in their county and will now work to develop a program for voter education and registration.”

Three special masters appointed by the state Supreme Court released their maps for the state Assembly, state Senate and Congress last Monday. The court said it will hear public comments about the proposals before it adopts a final version late next month. In the meantime, the court also said the Legislature could adopt a plan of its own.

But statewide, Republicans have fared well under the court’s proposal and Gov. Pete Wilson said Wednesday that he will support the maps. Democratic leaders in Sacramento are not happy with the political sketches, but many lawmakers said they do not believe that there are enough votes to pass a new plan.

As a result, although the maps are still unofficial, they have gained enough credibility that many candidates hoping to run next year have begun staking flags in their targeted districts. Here is a brief overview of the proposal’s highlights in Orange County for Congress, the state Senate and the Assembly.

In the Assembly: This is where most of the clashing between established politicians is expected to take place. One Assembly district surrounding Huntington Beach has been drawn around the homes of three incumbent lawmakers--Tom Mays (R-Huntington Beach), Doris Allen (R-Cypress) and Nolan Frizzelle (R-Huntington Beach). If the map is adopted, Mays and Frizzelle have already said they both expect to run in the 67th Assembly District.

“It’s up to him if he wants to run against me,” said Frizzelle, a 10-year incumbent legislator who once employed Mays as an aide. “I’m going to run a hard-hitting campaign.”

Allen said she is undecided. “It would be a tough race with three incumbents in the same district, (but) there’s always that possibility.”

Also in the Assembly, there is one proposed seat in Garden Grove that so far remains unclaimed. Allen said she is also considering whether to move her residence and launch a campaign for this seat.

Freshman Assemblyman Mickey Conroy (R-Santa Ana) would inherit a significant chunk of South County--including Mission Viejo--where the lawmaker could also be vulnerable to a challenge, although none has surfaced yet.

“I’m sure somebody’s going to come out of the woodwork, somebody who always wanted to run for office,” said Conroy aide Jim Bieber. “But knowing the district, the people in the south part of the county agree wholeheartedly with (Conroy’s) anti-tax fervor.”

* In the Senate: The most significant change for Orange County will be the loss of two districts belonging to Sens. Frank Hill (R-Whittier) and Cecil N. Green (D-Norwalk). As those districts move north into Los Angeles, the county will absorb a new southern district that it will share with San Diego County that is now represented by Sen. William A. Craven (R-Oceanside).

Of the county’s remaining three Senate seats, only two are up for election next year and both are claimed by well-established senators--Marian Bergeson (R-Newport Beach) and John R. Lewis (R-Orange).

The third seat will be up for election in 1994 and is part of the area currently represented by Sen. Ed Royce (R-Anaheim). Royce has launched a campaign for Congress next year and, if he wins, a special election will be held in 1993 for the remaining year in his term.

* In the Congress: Political observers say the four Orange County congressmen seeking reelection next year all carry substantial clout in at least one of the proposed districts. But two of the congressmen--Robert K. Dornan (R-Garden Grove) and Christopher Cox (R-Newport Beach)--have not yet indicated which of the proposed district seats they would seek.

Both have eyed the proposed 45th Congressional District in Huntington Beach, where Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-Long Beach) has already said he will run. Cox said he does not plan to challenge Rohrabacher, but an aide to Dornan said the congressman is still considering whether to run in Santa Ana or to move to the coast.

“No matter what happens, I’m running in the 45th Congressional District,” Rohrabacher said. “I have to believe Chris and Bob are not going to seek a primary challenge when they have fine districts.”

Cox said he was withholding his announcement until the court plan is adopted or becomes more credible. He said even small modifications made by the court could have significant impact on where he or other lawmakers would run in Orange County.

But Cox also added: “I think people are presuming that I’m running in the (proposed) 47th and I’d have to say that’s probably a good presumption.”

Rep. William E. Dannemeyer (R--Fullerton) has said he will abandon his seat in Congress so that he can pursue his campaign for the U.S. Senate. Royce is the only candidate so far to announce a campaign for the proposed district that includes Fullerton.

Orange County also inherited a small portion of a sixth Congressional seat in the proposed maps. The district includes Yorba Linda and stretches into San Bernardino and Los Angeles counties.

The comfortable incumbent districts are bad news for several city council members, mayors and county supervisors who had hoped that reapportionment would create an open seat for which they could run.

Most had especially hoped for an open congressional seat because a hotly contested race for the House could generate openings at all levels of government as legislators, supervisors and mayors abandon their posts to campaign.

Orange County Supervisor Roger R. Stanton is one official who has eyed a congressional campaign for several years and is now left with a difficult decision of whether to challenge a fellow Republican and incumbent.

“I am a declared candidate for the Orange County Board of Supervisors,” said Stanton. “However, I am not ruling out a close look at the 45th Congressional District.”

Musical Chairs

In the aftermath of a proposed state reapportionment, it mainly Orange County Assembly members who are scrambling to find their seats now that the music has stopped. One full-fledged battle between incumbents is expected; another incumbent may be forced to move to keep her seat. State senators and congressmen appear to have a place to land.

Assembly

67th: Three incumbent Assembly members live in this district--Tom Mays (R-Huntington Beach), Doris Allen (R-Cypress) and Nolan Frizzelle (R-Fountain Valley). All three could compete for it.

68th: No state legislator has claimed this district yet. Allen is considering whether she would move to campaign for the seat.

69th: Tom Umberg (D-Garden Grove) is planning to run for this seat, although he would have to move. It is nearly 65% Latino and just over 50% Democrat.

70th: Gil Ferguson (R-Newport Beach) is planning to keep this area with more than 60% of its voters registered Republican.

71st: Mickey Conroy (R-Santa Ana) is planning to run for this seat although he’ll inherit a lot of new territory and is expecting a primary challenge.

72nd: Ross Johnson (R-La Habra) said he will run for this district, which is about 58% Republican.

73rd: Robert C. Frazee (R-Carlsbad) could seek this seat, although it would be vulnerable territory with many new voters who don’t know him.

Senate

33rd: John R. Lewis (R-Orange) has claimed this district. It is nearly 60% Republican and contains much of the county’s unincorporated area.

34th: Edward R. Royce (R-Anaheim) would represent this district. It has nearly the same number of registered Republicans and Democrats and 44% of its residents are Latino.

35th: Marian Bergeson (R-Newport Beach) should inherit this seat. It is 57% Republican.

38th: William A. Craven (R-Oceanside) is expected to represent this seat, which straddles the border between Orange and San Diego counties.

Congress

39th: State Sen. Edward R. Royce (R-Anaheim) is the only candidate to announce his plans to run for this seat so far.

41st: No Orange County incumbents are expected to run here. Two Republicans have announced--James Lacey, an attorney at the U.S. Department of Commerce, and Assemblyman Charles Bader (R-Pomona).

45th: Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-Long Beach) has claimed this district. It is solidly Republican and contains some of the county’s most prized political cities.

46th: Rep. Robert K. Dornan (R-Garden Grove) could run here. It is nearly half Latino and the only Orange County congressional district that is mostly Democratic.

47th: Rep. Christopher Cox (R--Newport Beach) is the most likely choice here. Also a solid Republican seat.

48th: Rep. Ron Packard (R-Oceanside) is expected to run here, although this district now stretches farther into Orange County than his current area.