It’s Sink or Swim Time for ‘Hook’ : Movies: The film industry is watching to see how the big-budget film fares during the key Christmas vacation period.

As a crucial weekend in the holiday moviegoing season looms, there is growing concern among theater owners over the box-office performance of “Hook,” perhaps the year’s most high profile, big-budget movie, and the film most observers picked to lead the industry out of an autumn slump.

“Hook’s” opening gross of $13.5 million last weekend and nearly $20 million for the week was viewed with concern by many as surprisingly low for a Steven Spielberg film with a $60-million-plus budget and major name stars--Dustin Hoffman, Robin Williams and Julia Roberts. Only a week earlier, Paramount Pictures’ “Star Trek VI” had an opening weekend of $18.2 million.

“This is the important test weekend for them,” said a key executive at one of the nation’s largest theater chains on Wednesday. Speaking only on the condition of anonymity, “We felt ‘Hook’ had a good opening. After all, it did nearly $14 million in its first weekend. But it has to do another $14 million this weekend. If it doesn’t, there’s a big problem.”

Compounding the pressure for TriStar Pictures’ “Hook” are the major competing titles due in theaters this weekend and next week. Among them are Warner Bros.’ “JFK,” 20th Century Fox’s “Grand Canyon,” Disney/Touchstone’s “Father of the Bride,” TriStar’s own “Bugsy” and Columbia Pictures’ “The Prince of Tides.”

Because “Hook” debuted during a non-holiday week and in midweek, the usual opening comparisons were not easily made. Under normal circumstances, any movie that opens with a $14-million weekend gross is doing strong business. But because of the expectations--based on Spielberg’s reputation, its cast and the immediately recognized Peter Pan theme--”Hook” was no normal movie from the beginning.

Among an informal survey of several key exhibitors made by The Times, the consensus is that “Hook,” with its running time of 2 hours and 15 minutes, loses the kids.

“It didn’t draw the families on Sunday like a family movie should,” said one exhibitor. But he added, “Last weekend, people were doing other things and school was still in session.”

The exhibitors also complained that the advance advertising campaign had been “too subtle” for too long. Only in the last 10 days has TriStar switched its ad approach from the simple metallic hook on a black background to the more active-looking collage of the movie’s characters in Neverland. A source at TriStar’s parent company, Sony Pictures Entertainment, said no other changes in the campaign are contemplated until perhaps after the first of the year.

Many theater chains have committed multiple screens to the movie (it is playing on 2,197 screens nationwide). One box-office analyst observed that theater chains may reduce the number of screens “Hook” is playing on, if the demand for seats is not there after this weekend.

But if, with the start of the Christmas vacation period, the movie can pull in the family audience, then the industry will breathe a sigh of relief.

Steven Hill, an entertainment analyst with Sutro & Co. in San Francisco, said it’s unlikely “Hook” will build momentum this weekend, based on its initial box-office showing.

“The people I talk to already think it’s a failure,” he said. “The question is how big a failure it’s going to be. . . . People don’t buy the argument being put forward that it can start slowly and build. It just doesn’t have a must-see feel to it.”

Harold Vogel, an analyst with Merrill Lynch in New York, is also skeptical of “Hook’s” potential. Vogel said the movie may have been hurt by too many bad reviews.

“Cumulatively, reviews can hurt,” Vogel said. “Especially if everyone is expecting something big. In the case of ‘The Addams Family,’ the reviews missed the point. Nobody went to it to see the plot. They went to see the gimmicks. In the case of ‘Hook,’ the expectations were very high. Everyone already knows plot. The question is how is it executed?”

Some Hollywood insiders are saying that executives at TriStar Pictures, the movie’s distributor, were in a deep funk over “Hook” this week, after last weekend’s moderate showing.

On Wednesday, TriStar Chairman Mike Medavoy repeated his statements made earlier in the week that he is “thrilled with the opening . . . we’ve got $20 million in the first week--what’s wrong with that?

“People who thought we were in a funk over the ‘Hook’ numbers are insane. I am happy with the numbers. . . . Compared to the rest of the business, I’m happy.” He pointed to the fact that “Hook” accounted for almost 30% of this week’s box office.

Speaking off the record, a Columbia executive said “Hook” is so closely tied to Sony that it’s impossible to separate the two.

“It’s already a perception of failure, and because of the budget it may be a cash failure,” said another executive who deals with Sony. “Adults go in expecting conflict, and Captain Hook is the kind of guy you wouldn’t mind spending time with.”

There was even concern about the possible fallout at Columbia Pictures, TriStar’s sister studio within the Sony empire. The thinking goes that since the movie was such a pet project of Sony, if the movie dies, executives fear Sony will scale back production financing for both studios. The ramifications are made even greater for Sony because the company planned extensive tie-ins between “Hook” and its other entertainment-driven businesses.

A Sony source said, “The movie needs to earn $120 million from any combination of all potential worldwide theatrical markets and/or home video and other ancillary markets before it will begin to break even.”