Favorite Sons No Sure Things : Pro football: Bills and Redskins are teams to beat, but they have no guarantees of reaching the Super Bowl.

These are the playoffs of foregone conclusion, the year when most everybody wants to forget the early rounds and cut to the chase. Redskins vs. Buffalo on Jan. 26 in the Metrodome, right? Best offense in the NFC: Redskins. Best offense in the AFC: Bills. Both have distinct, sizable home-field advantages. Both have the experience of having been there before. So, it’s a done deal, right?

Not.

It wouldn’t set a precedent if one of the top seeds in the NFL playoffs didn’t advance to the Super Bowl; in fact, only once in the last six seasons have the No. 1 seeds met each other on the final Sunday. That was two years ago when the 49ers and Broncos made good on the promise of home-field advantage.

We don’t tend to think of the NFL playoffs as a minefield of upsets, but in five of the last six seasons, one of the No. 1 seeds went down. Last year, it was the 49ers losing to the Giants. In 1988, the 49ers, who had won only one cold-weather playoff game in history, went to Soldier Field and humbled the Bears. The year before that, the Vikings shocked 15-1 San Francisco in Candlestick. In 1986, John Elway produced “The Drive” that produced an upset of the Browns in Cleveland. And a year earlier, the Patriots won improbable games on the road against the Jets, Raiders and the defending AFC champion Dolphins.

So, which one is more likely to be upset, the Bills or Redskins? Let’s take the scenic route to reach this conclusion, shall we? (We’re basing these matchups on all the favored teams winning this weekend.)

Let’s take the AFC, the JV, first. Raiders vs. Chiefs comes down to which quarterback isn’t totally wretched for 60 minutes. The Raiders’ quarterback situation is so dreadful Art Shell is starting Todd Marinovich, a rookie who hasn’t taken a snap all season, today in a game that determines home-field advantage. So the pick here is Kansas City. The Washington Post’s NFL writer, Mike Freeman, insists the Dolphins are the team that will goof up the entire AFC picture. The Dolphins, however, are 26th in the league (of 28 teams) in defense. Yes, that’s John Elway smiling.

That sends the Chiefs to Buffalo and the Broncos to Houston. There’s every reason to believe the Bills will trample the Chiefs, especially since they’ll be seeking revenge for the 33-6 Monday night embarrassment at Kansas City in Week 6. But the Bills have a major problem. They can’t stop anybody. They’re 27th in the NFL in defense; only the forlorn Bengals are worse. The problem for Kansas City is that the quarterbacking is so shaky the Chiefs can’t win a shootout, which will allow the Bills back in the AFC title game.

Awaiting them will be the Broncos, probably the most underrated team in the league. Denver has trouble with teams that run the ball, but Houston’s rushing game is an afterthought. One bothersome stat on the Oilers: Warren Moon’s 21 interceptions. Elway is opportunistic enough to turn turnovers into points, even in the Astrodome.

Meanwhile, the Saints, playing at home and recalling that humiliating Superdome loss to Atlanta a few weeks ago, will win the first playoff game in franchise history. The best thing about the Saints’ four-game losing streak is they bottomed out early enough to find some solutions. They’ll have won two straight, Bobby Hebert will be totally healthy and the Jerry Glanville Falcons will be making their first voyage into the playoffs. Glanville, for all his great rebuilding at Houston and now in Atlanta, is still a wild-card kind of guy whose teams have difficulty when too much is at stake to steal a game with emotion and intimidation.

The first-round game of the playoffs will be Dallas at Detroit. The Cowboys at this point are the second-best team in the NFC. Yes, they did lose earlier this season at Detroit. The Lions, called “the no-account, gutless Lions” after Week 1 by someone using my name without permission, have given a splendid account of themselves overall, especially indoors, where they are 10-0.

But I also told you in Week 2 the Cowboys were coming; I just didn’t think they’d arrive this quickly. When all else is fairly equal in the playoffs, go with the best quarterback. Troy Aikman will be back, Steve Beuerlein is capable. The Cowboys have the competence and arrogance of a coming champion.

But they won’t be able to win a second time at Washington’s RFK the first weekend in January. The Cowboys can’t possibly play with the same desperateness and sense of urgency they brought to town a few weeks ago. Not only that, but Joe Gibbs can use his unique brand of psychological warfare to motivate his players. Gibbs will bring up the 24-21 Nov. 24 upset at RFK so often during the days leading up to the game, the words could be set to music.

In the other half of the NFC, the Saints will go to Chicago for the second straight year and lose for the second straight year. When Neal Anderson and Brad Muster are healthy, as they will be in three weeks, they’re capable of moving on anybody except the Redskins. Smart, tough, veteran teams like the Redskins, 49ers and Giants don’t waste dream seasons. Can the Redskins be beaten in the playoffs? Yes, by the 49ers, or Eagles with McMahon, both of whom will be at home watching. The Bears don’t have enough pass rushers to shake up Mark Rypien in RFK.

After they beat the Bears by a field goal, it will be on to Minnesota, where the Redskins will have a chance to win their first full-season Super Bowl by beating. ...

Denver!!!!!!

Bad defense, ultimately, is fatal. The Broncos have the No. 1 D in the AFC. To win in Rich Stadium, you’d better have a team that’s accustomed to playing in the cold, before huge, unruly crowds. Who’s better suited for that than Denver?

The Broncos have the offense to win a shootout, and the defense to hold on in a close one. Buffalo has apparently committed to Scott Norwood, which could be costly. Again. The Broncos, in their other championship years, didn’t have a pass rusher like linebacker Mike Croel or a threat like running back Gaston Green (947 yards). Anyway, Denver’s problems haven’t come in the conference title game; they just start there, as they will once again, having to be rematched with the best team in football.