Rain Can’t Ease Fears of Drought : Water: Though communities cut usage 15%-20% last year, Southern California is facing its sixth consecutive dry year.

Don’t flush that toilet. Shut off that sprinkler. Drought anxiety is starting to set in again among water officials, who say the next few months could trigger a strong sense of deja vu in Southern California.

With the so-called wet season half over, the statewide water situation looks as bad as it was a year ago, and the same stern warnings to conserve apply more than ever.

Despite recent rain and snow--including a heavy storm expected to hit today--California is on the way to setting another record with its persistent drought. Water officials warn that unless similar storms nourish the state’s major water sources--the Sierra Nevada and the Sacramento River Basin--an average of once a week through March, the state will suffer a sixth consecutive drought year.

And if the conditions of the past three months hold out through March, the 1991-92 rainy season will not just be one more dry year, it will be the driest of the last six.

“We’re just about even with last year, so you’re going to hear the same music this year: shortages in water deliveries growing more intense as we go into the season,” said Bill Helms, a hydrology expert with the state’s Drought Center in Sacramento.

“We’ve just started the new water year, but it looks bad,” agreed Mike Dunbar, assistant general manager of the South Coast Water District, which serves Dana Point, South Laguna and Laguna Niguel.

It’s not as if people haven’t tried to save water. In Orange County, most communities cut usage from 15% to 20% last year. But dry conditions throughout the state have persisted for so long that the state’s reservoirs are running just as low--some lower--than a year ago.

Lake Oroville, a state reservoir that stores water for Southern California, is only slightly more than one-third full, about the point where it was when 1991 began. Even though late-December storms added 2 inches of water to the state’s reservoirs, all of it was consumed within a few days, and the reservoirs have dropped back to the same low point.

The good news is that the situation could have been even worse. Water deliveries to the Southland from the state’s aqueduct have already been slashed 80%. But fortunately, Southern California will get a full allocation this year from the rain-swollen Colorado River, which helps offset the dismal state deliveries.

As a result, officials at the Metropolitan Water District, the giant agency that imports water for six Southern California counties, are not considering further cutbacks in deliveries. The mandatory conservation target set in place last April still applies--urban users must reduce use of imported water by 20%.

“Based on conditions known today, we will stay at the current stage of conservation,” said Bob Gomperz, a spokesman for the Metropolitan Water District.

State officials say consumers seem to be continuing their efforts to save water even though the drought isn’t making front-page headlines as it did last spring.

“All of our information shows that conservation has continued, especially in Southern California and coastal areas,” Helms said. “On the negative side, we keep increasing the population and increasing water demand.”

At the 23 cities and districts served by the Municipal Water District of Orange County, water use was down by 16% from February-October of 1991 compared to the same period in 1990.

According to the district’s records, faring the best for that period was Trabuco Canyon Water District, which cut total water consumption by 37%. The worst performance was at Moulton Niguel Water District, with an 8% decline. Residents of the county’s largest district, the Irvine Ranch Water District, used 13% less water.

South Orange County coastal residents, who are completely dependent on imported water, had the best overall performance, saving 21.5% in February through October of 1991 compared to that period in 1990, according to records of the Coastal Municipal Water District. That area includes communities from Newport Beach down to San Clemente.

Many of Orange County’s water districts would have done much better, but they had to cope with an increasing population. For example, if water usage is adjusted for growth, the Moulton Niguel district, which serves the rapidly growing Aliso Viejo area, cut consumption last year by an impressive 32%.

Much of the decline in last year’s demand was due to a kinder, gentler summer.

Keith Coolidge of the Municipal Water District of Orange County said the unusual weather of 1991 gets the credit for perhaps half of the decline in water use. All the districts met the 20% conservation target in midsummer, when temperatures were abnormally mild, but some failed in September and October, when the mercury soared, he said.

“Our consumption went up in October, and we were concerned that it was from lack of conservation, because the drought hasn’t been in the forefront as much as it was in the midsummer months,” said Larry Sears, water systems engineer in Fullerton, where water usage declined by 15% to 20% last year.

Cities in north and central Orange County are allowed to get up to 80% of their water from the county’s ground-water basin, so most of them started pumping more from wells to conserve the scarce imported water. But even those districts, which are less vulnerable to the drought because they are over ground water, managed to conserve overall last year.

For example, the county’s largest city--Santa Ana--consumed 14.1% less water last year. A city ordinance since February has banned daytime irrigation and hosing down of pavements.

Also, in Anaheim, which has a similar city ordinance that limits residents to irrigating three times a week, total water consumption last year declined by 11.6%. Accounting for growth, it was down 14%.

“Generally speaking, (last) year was fairly mild as far as temperatures. Having that cooler summer helped, along with a lot of awareness by consumers,” said Ray Merchant, Anaheim city spokesman.

At least some of the credit goes to efforts to stop water waste. Most Orange County districts or cities have issued low-flow shower heads and toilet water savers to their customers, and conferred with homeowners’ associations, businesses, growers, park operators and other major users.

“We’ve been very aggressive at eliminating waste,” said Hunter Cook, general manager of the Coastal Municipal Water District of Orange County. “But there’s an awful lot of waste that still goes on out there.”

Dunbar, of the South Coast Water District, said residents have cut back “just about to where they feel they can without really impacting their lifestyle. Any further cuts will take some changes,” he said, “and I think people could do that, but they need to be given the message.”

As far as long-term preparation, each water agency in the state is creating a contingency plan to cope in case water supplies are cut in half. Many Orange County cities are already digging more wells, and some water providers are building plants to recycle waste water for irrigation.

Despite more well pumping, Orange County’s valuable ground-water basin, which supplies half of the county’s needs, is faring about the same as a year ago. Heavy storms last March as well as water imported from the Colorado River nourished the underground supply.

But water officials warn consumers not to be fooled into thinking recent rains have brought relief.

“A storm that gives us 2 inches holds us even for just one week,” Helms said. “We have to have a storm like that every week in order to maintain normal water conditions. We’re so low in storage now due to light precipitation in November and December that it will take a lot more for us just to reach normal conditions.”

Rainfall in the Sacramento River Basin must be 150% of normal from now through April 1 for the state to finally experience drought relief.

“And the odds of that occurring,” Helms said, “are diminishing every day.”

Orange County Water Use

Most Orange County communities used significantly less water in 1991. The Municipal Water District, which serves the northern two-thirds of the county except for Santa Ana, Anaheim and Fullerton, reported a 16% drop in usage last year through October. The Coastal Municipal Water District in South County reported a 21.5% drop. Water use fluctuated wildly from month to month in 1991, mostly because of unusual weather. During March, an extremely stormy month, usage dropped, while in the fall, it shot up because of abnormally hot weather.

Municipal Water District of Orange County (Serves districts and cities in central, north and western parts of county) Usage down 16% from 1990

Total acre-feet of water consumed

Coastal Municipal Water District of Orange County (Serves coastal cities and districts from Newport Beach to San Clemente) Usage down 21.5% from 1990

Anaheim (Usage down 11.6% from 1990) January: 4,867 February: 4,675 March: 3,849 April: 4,733 May: 5,937 June: 5,877 July: 6,392 August: 6,500 September: 5,932 October: 5,832 November: 5,280

Santa Ana (Usage down 14.1% from 1990) January: 3,417 February: 3,087 March: 2,911 April: 3,344 May: 3,940 June: 4,015 July: 4,239 August: 4,273 September: 3,992 October: 3,936 November: 3,633 December: 3,288

Fullerton (Usage down an estimated 15%-20% from 1990) January: 2,092 February: 2,012 March: 1,578 April: 2,170 May: 2,637 June: 2,699 July: 3,045 August: 3,124 September: 2,877 October: 2,726 November: 2,374

Sources: Municipal Water District, Coastal Municipal Water District, cities of Santa Ana, Anaheim and Fullerton