Scarcity of Candidates Dims Luster of Iowa Caucus : Election: President Bush is uncontested and Democratic Sen. Harkin, the state’s favorite son, faces only the challenge of Jerry Brown.

In 1988, Betty Strong’s modest home in a working-class neighborhood here was a key stop on the road to the Democratic presidential nomination.

Missouri Rep. Richard A. Gephardt stayed overnight in her upstairs guest room. And four of his opponents sat at her Cherrywood dining table to drink a mug of her strong coffee, hear a story about her grandchildren and tell her why they wanted to be President of the United States.

This year is different. Strong, 65, is still a precinct captain working to organize the Feb. 10 caucuses, the nation’s first actual tabulation of candidate support in the 1992 presidential race. But, she said, things couldn’t be more quiet.

“I haven’t had a call or a letter from” any of the candidates, she said. Strong added that she is expecting only a tiny crowd at her local caucus as Iowans gather throughout the state in basements, firehouses and churches to stand up for their favorite presidential contender. “If we have 15 people show up, we’ll be doing good,” she said.

This is the 20th anniversary of the first Iowa caucuses, but instead of enjoying its usual spot under the klieg lights of a national stage, Iowa’s political forums are as empty as a frozen cornfield.

“It’s boring as hell,” concedes Randy Enright, executive director of the state Republican Party.

That’s because political circumstances have removed any doubt about the outcome of the Iowa contests.

President Bush is unchallenged in the state; his two insurgent rivals for the Republican nomination--conservative commentator Patrick J. Buchanan and former Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke--decided to marshal their forces elsewhere.

Bush’s third-place finish in the 1988 caucuses almost derailed his campaign, and he still is not an overwhelming favorite of local Republicans, Enright said. But neither Buchanan nor Duke has campaigned in Iowa, much less built the type of grass-roots organization needed to succeed at the caucuses.

The winner of the Democratic caucuses also is virtually assured: Iowa’s own Sen. Tom Harkin. His favorite-son status has cast such a long shadow that among the Democrats’ four other major candidates, only former California Gov. Edmund G. (Jerry) Brown Jr. has shown interest in generating a race for second place.

Some local Democrats think that could change, that the lure of publicity generated by past second-place finishes will spark an 11th-hour skirmish. But most party members are preparing for a quiet caucus night and reflecting on what a difference four years can make.

In 1988, Illinois Sen. Paul Simon hired 150 workers to scour the state for voters. One of his Democratic rivals, former Arizona Gov. Bruce Babbitt, launched his Iowa campaign almost two years before caucus day with a bicycle ride across the state.

Now, Brown is the only candidate from either party--other than Harkin--to stop in the state since the year began. Former Massachusetts Sen. Paul E. Tsongas opened a storefront in Des Moines last May that is now staffed only by an answering machine. Harkin is the only candidate with a paid staff.

“It’s hard to beat somebody with nobody and nobody has campaigned in Iowa,” said Joe Shannahan, spokesman for the state Democratic Party.

Underscoring the changed dynamics, Harkin even chartered a caravan of buses, dubbed “The Heartland Express,” to take Iowa campaign workers to New Hampshire, where the nation’s first primary is held eight days after Iowa’s caucuses.

“There is a terrible feeling here that (Iowa) just doesn’t matter any more,” said Steve Sovern, a former Democratic state senator from Cedar Rapids. “Those who once took pride in raising issues at their neighborhood caucuses, knowing they had a chance of affecting the national agenda, are feeling left out.”

Harkin’s campaign initially downplayed expectations of a big victory to avoid a possible embarrassment. But now, after a recent poll by the Des Moines Register found him favored by 64% of the state’s Democrats--compared to just 10% for the second-place candidate, Nebraska Sen. Bob Kerrey--the Harkin campaign is confidently saying his showing will exceed Jimmy Carter’s record tally of 59% in 1980.

“We want to do better than anybody has ever done in Iowa,” said John Norris, Harkin’s Iowa campaign director. “That’s our goal.”

In the past, Iowa’s biggest winners have not always been its first-place finishers.

In 1984, a little-known senator from Colorado--Gary Hart--got a big boost from Iowa when he received just 16% of the caucus returns compared to 49% for former Vice President Walter F. Mondale. And in 1976, Jimmy Carter’s long-shot campaign was propelled to the forefront when he finished second on caucus night--with 29%--to the uncommitted vote--39%.

“If somebody comes in here and gets a quick 12%, they are a contender overnight,” said Lowell Junkins, a former Democratic gubernatorial nominee from Waukee. “As crazy as it seems in these last days in Iowa, I think it’s not unlikely someone would make a last-minute attempt.”

But especially with tight campaign budgets, spokesmen for candidates Tsongas, Kerrey and Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton insist that Iowa is not in their plans.

Next to Harkin, Kerrey is the most well-known Democratic candidate in Iowa because a large part of the state watches television stations based in Omaha. But a Kerrey aide said the campaign believes Harkin’s native-son candidacy has made Iowa “politically and statistically irrelevant.”

James Pribyl, a Des Moines political consultant working on Kerrey’s campaign in South Dakota, said the Nebraskan will not spend any money or time in Iowa. “None whatsoever,” Pribyl said. “Not a penny, not a nickel, not a dime.”

Some Democrats complain that caucus rules heavily favor Harkin and discourage a challenge. Caucus-goers not only must announce their preference in public, but supporters of any candidate who does not get 15% of the vote on the first count must disband and join a group that meets the threshold. The caucus-goers, who must be registered Democrats or Republicans and cannot cross party lines, can also form a group of uncommitted members.

Brown and supporters of Kerrey have argued that the caucus members should be allowed to cast a secret ballot and that the 15% threshold should be eliminated. But their proposals received short shrift from state party officials.

“Candidates for President have, in effect, been told to go elsewhere,” Brown said at a recent news conference in Des Moines.

Although party leaders deny any favoritism, even Harkin supporters--such as Strong in Sioux City--acknowledge that it would take a lot of backbone to stand up at a caucus and oppose him. Those who do will have to be ready to defend their choice to friends, neighbors and sometimes family members, she said.

Strong smiled and said that at her caucus in a neighborhood church meeting hall, “there might be two people who aren’t for Harkin, but when their neighbors get through with them. . . . “

Iowa: Out of the Limelight The Iowa caucuses have attracted national attention ever since Jimmy Carter spotlighted them as a key event in his 1976 presidential campaign. But this year, political circumstances in both the Democratic and Republican contests have combined to reduce the caucuses to footnote status. 1991 Population: 2,795,000 Current registered voters: 1,539,446 Republicans: 484,540Democrats: 581,930 Independents and others: 472,976Caucus Winners 1976 Democrat: Carter Republican Gerald Ford 1980 Democrat: Carter Republican: George Bush 1984 Democrat: Walter Mondale Republican: Ronald Reagan 1988 Democrat: Richard Gephart Republican: Robert Dole Source: Iowa Voter Registration Bureau.